earthlight Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The phase is occurring a bit too far east on the NAM if you ask me, that run is probably heading out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 On 12/22/2010 at 3:02 AM, earthlight said: The phase is occurring a bit too far east on the NAM if you ask me, that run is probably heading out to sea. you gotta also take into account, the nam at 84 hrs...But yes i agree, im just glad it didnt trend towards the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 On 12/22/2010 at 3:01 AM, PSUHazletonWx said: Actually he did. Wes by nature is a very cautious forecaster. He is not one to hype and is just playing it close to the vest right now. If the models move in the right direction, he will honk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The comparisons to the Euro are legit, but I still think the Euro has the shortwave coming out of the northern stream better positioned for amplification when I eyeball the maps at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 So it looks like Wes was right, this run wasn't that good after all. Bleh. Hopefully the GGEM/UK/EURO don't follow suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike McDonnell Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Remember Nam is not very accurate beyond 60...that being said it looks amazingly like the 12z euro....that has to be a good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 On 12/22/2010 at 2:42 AM, tombo82685 said: comparing hr 72 on the nam to hr 84 on the euro its exactly the same if not close. Comparing 72 on the 0z NAM to 72 on the 18z NAM it looks like a carbon copy. Just about the entire run looks like a cc of the previous run, i.e., 6 hours slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 On 12/22/2010 at 3:06 AM, PSUHazletonWx said: So it looks like Wes was right, this run wasn't that good after all. Bleh. Hopefully the GGEM/UK/EURO don't follow suit. hes also looking at the nam at hr 84, thats comparing the gfs at hr 384. If it was hr 60 id say ok deff some merit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 That 500mb chart looks very OTS to me....similar to the 18z DGEX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 On 12/22/2010 at 3:07 AM, tombo82685 said: hes also looking at the nam at hr 84, thats comparing the gfs at hr 384. If it was hr 60 id say ok deff some merit. tombo i think the trend tonight with the nam looks promising looking like it mirrors the 12z euro. do you see this as a legit trend towards moving towards the 12z euro/european models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Some people are saying OTS and some people are saying it looks good. Looks like DT and HM agree that it's not a bad run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 On 12/22/2010 at 3:08 AM, NorEaster27 said: That 500mb chart looks very OTS to me....similar to the 18z DGEX. But it's slower than 18z which would give more time for the system to phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 On 12/22/2010 at 3:10 AM, Snow88 said: Some people are saying OTS and some people are saying it looks good. Looks like DT and HM agree that it's not a bad run. yea...hard to get a read of what actually happened haha...good/bad/ugly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 On 12/22/2010 at 3:10 AM, blizzardof09 said: tombo i think the trend tonight with the nam looks promising looking like it mirrors the 12z euro. do you see this as a legit trend towards moving towards the 12z euro/european models? i would say it is, im not looking at the 84 hr nam. Everytime in the past when we have gotten all excited for the 84 hr nam the next run is 100 percent different at that same time period on the following run. So yes i would think it deff is in the foreign model camp, its not in the gfs camp at all. By hr 84 on the nam the low is in the same exact spot as the euro at 96, while the gfs at 18z is in ga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Some of the "analysis" here is mind boggling in it's own right. One says things look good, another says maybe not. One says it looks like it'll go out to sea, another says it's ready to explode. It's getting rather difficult to weed out the good sound analysis from the bad. Sheesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 On 12/22/2010 at 3:13 AM, tombo82685 said: i would say it is, im not looking at the 84 hr nam. Everytime in the past when we have gotten all excited for the 84 hr nam the next run is 100 percent different at that same time period on the following run. So yes i would think it deff is in the foreign model camp, its not in the gfs camp at all. By hr 84 on the nam the low is in the same exact spot as the euro at 96, while the gfs at 18z is in ga. I can see where the goods come in, but man, I'm reading the general discussion thread and there's a lot of worry showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike McDonnell Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Folks, be careful extrapolating runs beyond their end time. If you were to extrapolate the 12z euro beyond 96 hours it would also look out to sea. Once the northern short wave drops in it is going to pull the low northward. The 12z euro shows the storm hooking big time once it gets caught by the 500 mb low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 On 12/22/2010 at 3:13 AM, Voyager said: Some of the "analysis" here is mind boggling in it's own right. One says things look good, another says maybe not. One says it looks like it'll go out to sea, another says it's ready to explode. It's getting rather difficult to weed out the good sound analysis from the bad. Sheesh. That's what happens when people try to extrapolate the NAM past 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 On 12/22/2010 at 3:13 AM, Voyager said: Some of the "analysis" here is mind boggling in it's own right. One says things look good, another says maybe not. One says it looks like it'll go out to sea, another says it's ready to explode. It's getting rather difficult to weed out the good sound analysis from the bad. Sheesh, Prob is people are trying to interpret what the NAM would show if it were extrapolated beyond it's 84 hr time frame. Therefore it's left to human interpretation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 On 12/22/2010 at 3:13 AM, Voyager said: Some of the "analysis" here is mind boggling in it's own right. One says things look good, another says maybe not. One says it looks like it'll go out to sea, another says it's ready to explode. It's getting rather difficult to weed out the good sound analysis from the bad. Sheesh. it actually seems that some intelligent people/mets are disagreeing on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 On 12/22/2010 at 3:15 AM, _AR_ said: That's what happens when people try to extrapolate the NAM past 84 hours. which is my pt look at the nam from hr 72 down...we all know the 6z run hr 78 and 84 are going to be vastly different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 well guys, i know this will make you all feel better http://twitter.com/weathermadness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 On 12/22/2010 at 3:18 AM, tombo82685 said: well guys, i know this will make you all feel better http://twitter.com/weathermadness LOL Actually his last post has some merit wrt the digging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 On 12/22/2010 at 3:20 AM, _AR_ said: LOL Actually his last post has some merit wrt the digging. yea you guys need to loosen up. we are bickering over the 84 hr nam... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 On 12/22/2010 at 3:17 AM, jasonli18t said: it actually seems that some intelligent people/mets are disagreeing on this one. The issue is semantics. The NAM is not "identical" to the Euro. Wes is right that there are subtle differences. DT is also right, however, that the NAM is much closer to the Euro at 84HR than to the GFS. Advantage Euro so far but the jury remains out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 On 12/22/2010 at 3:25 AM, ohleary said: Given the 12z and 00z NAM, add a trend toward the 12z Euro for the 00z GFS, and assuming the 00z Euro looks like the 12z Euro, I might start to be convinced. Another skeptic maybe joining the fold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 On 12/22/2010 at 3:34 AM, njrealtor84 said: When does the 00Z GFS Initialize? I dont have the times here at home. It has already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 On 12/22/2010 at 3:34 AM, njrealtor84 said: When does the 00Z GFS Initialize? I dont have the times here at home. it already did, im out to hr 21, but i get it a little faster than most people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
njrealtor84 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Thank you. On 12/22/2010 at 3:36 AM, F5TornadoF5 said: It has already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 through hr 21 gfs slower, h5 closed off when 18z was opened up, stronger s/w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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