mattie g Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 At least your boss didn't call you in at 3am because he thought this was a derecho about to hit. *facepalm* Well...he was right on the derecho part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 That radar looked pretty at 6am. Not so much at 8am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 .5" at home so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Well, we missed any heavy stuff, but once the initial convection passed, we got into nice moderate rain. Went back to bed and slept like a baby with the dark skies, distant rolling thunder, and sound of rain falling. Looks to be over soon, but over 0.60" so far. 0.59" here and nearing the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 HRRR thinks we are game for storms this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Didn't this clear out a bit quicker then expexted? I remember many model runs not even hitting the area until 8 and clearing the MCs closer to 11-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 HRRR thinks we are game for storms this afternoon. When doesn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 0.59" here and nearing the end. Solid event, especially for me. Only complaint is I wish it were a weekend. Dark skies had the kids sound asleep when I left for work. otherwise they are up when I get up in the mornings with the early-rising sun. A chance to sleep in a little would have been nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 only .19 at home. Another fail. Not even a rumble of thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Didn't this clear out a bit quicker then expexted? I remember many model runs not even hitting the area until 8 and clearing the MCs closer to 11-12. Some of the models had what affected to backbuilding of convection contaminating the region until early afternoon. We aren't seeing that right now. When doesn't it? Touche. I guess the bigger deal from the HRRR is that it thinks that we will clearly be to the south of the "front". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Completely removed from the slight risk from SPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 0.42" of rain this a.m. brings June's total to 5.60" here, after 5.98" in May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Only saw 2 of those. The real game was "lets see how slow i can drive on the beltway" game. The answer is: What is 20 MPH, Alex? Correct. You have control of the board I'll take "Weenie catchphrases for $500" LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Completely removed from the slight risk from SPC. I think they went too far south with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 I think they went too far south with it I'll pull a Yoda and say the 9z SREFs look decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Line of severe warned storms just moved through. Pretty tame actually with only a few decent gusts and some lightning. Looks like I'm in the ENH region for later on. Should be interesting to see if we clear out -- Visible has quite a bit of cloud cover all the way back into Ohio still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 peeks of sun here and there now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 I love the precipitation forecast on wunderground. A couple hours ago it had 1.14". Not it has 0.04" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Nearest substantial clearing is in PA on visible satellite. Some thinning locally but still very loaded with the clouds. SPC probably smart to go south with the risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 12z NAM at IAD has close to 3000 SBCAPE at 00z tonight... 2500 at KDCA... temps in the mid 80s and DP's in the low 70s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 The 4km NAM sim reflectivity looks okay - has a few cells in the area - enough to salvage it from being a complete whiff day. Question is whether it's correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 the concern I have with the details of this run is that it shows 2500+ sfc cape over northern VA and northwest MD by 18z. Seems like that's going to be awfully difficult to achieve. The 4km NAM sim reflectivity looks okay - has a few cells in the area - enough to salvage it from being a complete whiff day. Question is whether it's correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 4km NAM also has a swath of Ian's favorite U/D helicity slicing from NW to SE across the metro area this evening. Nothing particularly eye popping, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 the concern I have with the details of this run is that it shows 2500+ sfc cape over northern VA and northwest MD by 18z. Seems like that's going to be awfully difficult to achieve. For sure. It's still wall to wall clouds here in MoCo. It also is quite on it's own in terms of the extent of storm activity. I'd probably lean towards tossing it. HRRR has *some* activity but it looks like general showers isolated storms at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Mesoanalysis has SBCAPE very slowly starting to come up but mainly over northern DE - tiny little pocket of 500j/kg showing up there now. We'll see how the next few hours play out. Rumbles of thunder later would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 I hope the front stays south and the clouds intact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Some sun beginning to peek out here (Blacksburg). Looks like the majority of the stuff in WV will stay north of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 There is more substantial clearing showing up on visible satellite in the area of the VA/WV border. Could boost instability a bit if we can get that to move in here and last more than 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 23, 2016 Author Share Posted June 23, 2016 I'm out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 I'm out It's only a matter of time before Yoda is the only one left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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