AmericanWxFreak Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Well I guess that's why it's so bad on the NAM. That complex just ruins our instability chances could that complex be atleast a little fun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 I want to wake up to heavy rain and lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 I think I'm ready to throw in the towel for tomorrow. NAM nest and HRRR agree on the morning MCS, and whether it's right over us or focused further south, either way the big outflow boundary sets up south. Maybe southern portions of the metro area still have a shot, but I'm losing optimism on the north side of town. The GFS is much better because it really doesn't have the MCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 could that complex be atleast a little fun? Could be if you're looking for heavy rain and lightning and thunder. Not sure it'll be a ton more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 I think I'm ready to throw in the towel for tomorrow. NAM nest and HRRR agree on the morning MCS, and whether it's right over us or focused further south, either way the big outflow boundary sets up south. Maybe southern portions of the metro area still have a shot, but I'm losing optimism on the north side of town. The GFS is much better because it really doesn't have the MCS. I'm about near that point too. It's been pretty precarious on several runs the last day or two. I guess at this point I'll hope for the early morning MCS to track right over us to give us some loud thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 23, 2016 Author Share Posted June 23, 2016 I'd imagine the worst swings to our south overall but it does seem it could be a hard one to come back from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 I'd imagine the worst swings to our south overall but it does seem it could be a hard one to come back from. I hope you're right about the pattern trying to reload - or let's shoot for an even better pattern - The tropical thing was on 18z again but a way different track of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Run with the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Run with the GFS 00z GFS still shoving the front into S PA... large amounts of SBCAPE show up at 18z to 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Even if the GFS is right about the frontal/outflow boundary position (which I don't believe), it gets its crazy instability from some sort of weird local evaporative effect that bumps up 2-m dew point into the upper 70.s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 23, 2016 Author Share Posted June 23, 2016 Next. The snow weenies are going to be trickling back in soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 The snow weenies are going to be trickling back in soon. Pretty disappointing. But it's DC and it's severe. I think I'll switch to hoping for some loud thunder from any morning activity. I hope you start giving me nuggets/signs of an upcoming potential soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 There are hints that there will be some clearing and renewed storm activity this afternoon, but the severe threat for the greater DC/MD region is looking really meh unless we get lucky with clearing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Lots of lightning and booming, rolling thunder. Just light rain so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 So far, this thing is splitting right around me. Heavy stuff passed south and has now gotten to my east. Still nothing but light rain and drizzle. Radar looked promising initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 That is a large shield of really light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 In 20+ minutes of this, nearest PWS has registered 0.05". Can't believe I got out of bed for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Mod rain and thunder right now. Drive in to work should be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Mod rain and thunder right now. Drive in to work should be fun But you get to play the "how many cars don't have headlights on in the pouring rain" game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 T&L imby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Is there an inversion right now? Thunder sounded funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jviper Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Lots of yellow radar returns area wide but the orange is minimal and south of Front Royal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 But you get to play the "how many cars don't have headlights on in the pouring rain" game. Only saw 2 of those. The real game was "lets see how slow i can drive on the beltway" game. The answer is: What is 20 MPH, Alex? Correct. You have control of the board I'll take "Weenie catchphrases for $500" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Sitting at work now and enjoying the lightning and rolling thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Just light rain.....3rd event in a row that's missed south ..maybe this afternoon we can get some storms to fire up this way. Same here. But the commute will be doubled regardless Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Back edge crashing in pretty quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 In 20+ minutes of this, nearest PWS has registered 0.05". Can't believe I got out of bed for this. At least your boss didn't call you in at 3am because he thought this was a derecho about to hit. *facepalm* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Well, we missed any heavy stuff, but once the initial convection passed, we got into nice moderate rain. Went back to bed and slept like a baby with the dark skies, distant rolling thunder, and sound of rain falling. Looks to be over soon, but over 0.60" so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Moderate rain with rolling thunder and what I think was one positive strike not too far away at around 6:30 am. Absolutely no complaints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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