Ian Posted June 22, 2016 Author Share Posted June 22, 2016 Saw quite a few on Twitter mentioning derecho when the squall hasn't even formed yet...so I get it. But to be fair, models do look worrisome for later tonight. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk It's a potent setup. I've been on the setup for like two weeks.. Not necessarily exactly today but the general idea. There's just a lot of non forecasting these days that tries to pass as forecasting. It wasn't that long ago people were mocked for using sim radar seriously. Hell I was mocked for saying predicting tornadoes is easier because of the HRRR just a few weeks ago. Tornadoes have a special kind of hype and it just keeps getting worse.And to be fair we call for tornado outbreaks before they happen. This is a pretty classic derecho setup except perhaps bulk shear is on the strong side which is partly the concern for lengthier supercells than sometimes happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Ian is going to look really silly when an EF-5 tears through downtown Chicago and it looks like a scene from a Hollywood disaster movie. And Yoda, with the good old PDS TOR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 It's a potent setup. I've been on the setup for like two weeks.. Not necessarily exactly today but the general idea. There's just a lot of non forecasting these days that tries to pass as forecasting. It wasn't that long ago people were mocked for using sim radar seriously. Hell I was mocked for saying predicting tornadoes is easier because of the HRRR just a few weeks ago. Tornadoes have a special kind of hype and it just keeps getting worse. And to be fair we call for tornado outbreaks before they happen. This is a pretty classic derecho setup except perhaps bulk shear is on the strong side which is partly the concern for lengthier supercells than sometimes happens. It's not so much the magnitude as much as the character of the shear that is the concern here. This is certainly not the classic unidirectional shear profile that you usually see with a rapid evolving MCS. There is a ton of directional shear here basically through the whole column that is leading to rather outrageous helicity values near that warm front that you rarely see juxtaposed with adequate instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 22, 2016 Author Share Posted June 22, 2016 It's not so much the magnitude as much as the character of the shear that is the concern here. This is certainly not the classic unidirectional shear profile that you usually see with a rapid evolving MCS. There is a ton of directional shear here basically through the whole column that is leading to rather outrageous helicity values near that warm front that you rarely see juxtaposed with adequate instability.Well obviously I've seen a million and one soundings so I know it looks quite interesting. I think it's more 'classic' in a pattern sense than some other details. Honestly much of the time I've been of the believe that the good air wouldn't be tapped that heavily in discrete mode tho just based on history it would be wise to assume a few tornadoes to start then more in the line if it goes that way. I agree shorter term trends have suggested lengthier discrete although I am somewhat dubious and often naturally undersell things. Admittedly I rarely act like I have the situation totally figured out.. Convection is a pain in the arse. It would be nice if everyone involved remembered that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Well the latest HRRR runs now bring the bulk of the MCS from tonight SOUTH of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 18z GFS is decent across the area 15z to 00z SBCAPE wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 22, 2016 Author Share Posted June 22, 2016 Well the latest HRRR runs now bring the bulk of the MCS from tonight SOUTH of the area. wouldn't be shocking.. these big lines like to bend right 'into the instability' with time. i still sorta have a hard time seeing how we totally recoup if it's big and plows thru the region but the shear will be big time again tomorrow so... good news is it might not be big. edit: i need a thesaurus. big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 18z GFS is decent across the area 15z to 00z SBCAPE wise 18z GFS warm sectors everybody and sends front into south-central PA (I hope I am reading that correctly ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Well the latest HRRR runs now bring the bulk of the MCS from tonight SOUTH of the area. Yeah, the RPM has had the MCS pushing south of the DC area for a while and more towards my area (CHO). That said, it does try to spit out a storm or two near DC by 4-5 PM since your atmosphere wouldn't get worked over like areas that see the MCS. It's going to be a "fun" 12 hours of tracking the developing MCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 18z GFS warm sectors everybody and sends front into south-central PA (I hope I am reading that correctly ) Nice, wedges for everyone. Would love another 2012 Derecho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 wouldn't be shocking.. these big lines like to bend right 'into the instability' with time. i still sorta have a hard time seeing how we totally recoup if it's big and plows thru the region but the shear will be big time again tomorrow so... good news is it might not be big. edit: i need a thesaurus. big. Will be an interesting progression tonight regardless of whether we get nailed or not. My money is still on no for MBY. I guess our odds could be better if the MCS goes south of us due to better instability... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Anddd the tracking starts. First tornado watch out for Chicago area. Latest HRRR continues to want to shove the MCS to our south mostly - with just plain rain for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 I agree with Ian to a degree. Lately, any time there is a chance of an MCS, derecho talk immediately comes up and people start referencing 2012 when, even if an MCS were to develop, 2012 is the exception and not the rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Derecho: The word no non-weather geek knew before 2012. Or, if they did know it, it was some shot you do on your 21st birthday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Lake breeze arrived just in time to kill the instability for Chicago. #hypefail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 23, 2016 Author Share Posted June 23, 2016 Lake breeze arrived just in time to kill the instability for Chicago. #hypefailNot to mention the supercells almost instantly blobbed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Derecho: The word no non-weather geek knew before 2012. Or, if they did know it, it was some shot you do on your 21st birthday. Der-echo - the echo heard when you scream "Der" in a tunnel canyon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 HRRR Para (which is a new feature on Weatherbell), shows the MCS exiting by 10:00am. But shows little clearing and like 200 CAPE by 1:00pm. Also dews only Mid to Upper 60s. GFS is probably way too high with Dew Points considering no other model shows dews 75-76 for DC. Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 HRRR Para (which is a new feature on Weatherbell), shows the MCS exiting by 10:00am. But shows little clearing and like 200 CAPE by 1:00pm. Also dews only Mid to Upper 60s. GFS is probably way too high with Dew Points considering no other model shows dews 75-76 for DC. Interesting Yes 75 dews are probably too high. Though I could see 70 dews if the front clears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Der-echo - the echo heard when you scream "Der" in a tunnel canyon. Derecho: the kind of girl from a certain part of northern Ireland that your mother doesn't approve of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 https://www.periscope.tv/Jeff_Piotrowski/1gqxvMdWLYOJB Great live chase right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 That dudes been way too close. Rain wrapped, getting dark, etc. Seems dumb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 23, 2016 Author Share Posted June 23, 2016 That dudes been way too close. Rain wrapped, getting dark, etc. Seems dumb.He's such a dope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 00z nam looks super meh for DC and N... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 He's such a dope. What are you saying about us Polaks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 00z nam looks super meh for DC and N... It's interesting how much the 12k and 4k seem to diverge in terms of timing and severe parameters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 https://www.periscope.tv/Jeff_Piotrowski/1gqxvMdWLYOJB Great live chase right now Finally a tornadic storm with decent lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Even the 21z SREFs are better than the 00z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Well I guess that's why it's so bad on the NAM. That complex just ruins our instability chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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