smokeybandit Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 The local county social media news source is already hyping a derecho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 damn, thank goodness the house wasn't damaged and all is well. sorry about the mess though. hope clean up goes smoothly. Thanks. Reminds me to be careful of what I wish for sometimes concerning active weather. Although, I'll probably still be pulling for some exciting storms tomorrow. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Thanks. Reminds me to be careful of what I wish for sometimes concerning active weather. Although, I'll probably still be pulling for some exciting storms tomorrow. MDstorm the only thing i will not actively root for is ice. ill deal with the cleanup from everything else. and i guess a tornado... don't really root for those to happen. just follow along when they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 haven't been following the midwest stuff a whole lot, but the fact that the HRRR has discrete supercells popping up 9-10pm in IL, is kind of scary. hope folks are paying attention out there tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Afternoon AFD from LWX: Area Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC310 PM EDT Wed Jun 22 2016.SYNOPSIS...Low pressure will approach from the Ohio Valley tonight and thenmove across the region Thursday. High pressure will build into thearea Thursday night and remain through the weekend. A cold frontwill approach the mid-Atlantic early next week.&&.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...At present...slow-moving cold front has sunk south of most of theCWA but remains draped across central Virginia. Much drier andmore stable air mass in place across most of the region atpresent. Tonight, the front will try to back northward in advanceof low pressure moving eastward from the midwest. This low willpass near the area during the day Thursday.There is a lot of uncertainty regarding severe weather andflooding...mainly due to the presence of the aforementionedfront. Some guidance (GFS in particular) shoves the front backnorth late tonight and early Thursday...resulting in an extremelyunstable atmosphere on Thursday afternoon (4000+ j/kg cape) fromwhich strong to severe storms would be likely. However...thiswould not seem particularly likely if the idea of an MCS movingacross the region is correct...in which case the rain cooled airwould likely be stuck in a wedge east of the mountains and thefront would be unable to push back north. The other questionrevolves around said MCS...which may or may not bring a round ofsevere weather later tonight. With the front sagging southwardstill and a stable air mass in place...any MCS moving in from thewest could just ride right over the stable air mass and startweakening...which would reduce the severe threat. However...shouldthe front manage to slide back northward late tonight ahead of theMCS...it could tap the more unstable air to the south directly andbring another round of severe thunderstorms and heavy rain.Right now...it is all very uncertain and hinges as mentioned onany MCS development and the movement of the front. We have bankedmore on MCS potential with the front perhaps pushing back northovernight...and then stabilizing behind it with the front goingback south again during the day Thursday. This would mean asevere/flood threat later tonight/early Thursday across theregion. However...given high uncertainty...have not expanded flashflood watch any further east despite large amount of guidancesuggesting we should. This will be reviewed again during theevening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 I like the look of the 15z SREFs... sig tor probs are decent for the area from 15z to 21z... including the supercell composite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 22, 2016 Author Share Posted June 22, 2016 haven't been following the midwest stuff a whole lot, but the fact that the HRRR has discrete supercells popping up 9-10pm in IL, is kind of scary. hope folks are paying attention out there tonight. people are so full of ****. a year ago everyone ragged on accuweather for hugging updraft helicity.. now it's all people do. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 All the weather world is hype these days. People out west talking wedgefest gonna be disappointed when this thing grows into a cluster in like 5 minutes. You mean like this? https://twitter.com/tlyzawx/status/745703622860808192 ZOOMG...TEH PARAMETERZ!!1! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 You mean like this? https://twitter.com/tlyzawx/status/745703622860808192 ZOOMG...TEH PARAMETERZ!!1! That's not tornadotony, is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 22, 2016 Author Share Posted June 22, 2016 You mean like this? https://twitter.com/tlyzawx/status/745703622860808192 ZOOMG...TEH PARAMETERZ!!1! Well I said 5 min but we'll prob see supercells for a bit.. that's generally how these things go. There is quite strong bulk shear. It could be supercellular a while I suppose. But still people (not Tony) are so hypocritical in the biz.. especially once they figure out what things get shares. See the response to him. Again, when Accu brought that up they were endlessly mocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 [drive by] The maps are nice but all you gotta do is look at the setup and where the boundaries are to see how there could be a problem later, and potentially in some populated areas. I'm not sure there's an overwhelming signal to go linear super quickly. [/drive by] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 22, 2016 Author Share Posted June 22, 2016 [drive by] The maps are nice but all you gotta do is look at the setup and where the boundaries are to see how there could be a problem later, and potentially in some populated areas. I'm not sure there's an overwhelming signal to go linear super quickly. [/drive by] Some people -- in EVERY setup -- run to the worst case scenario. They get free passes left and right. People that don't are called nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 oops. sorry i said that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 That's not tornadotony, is it? Yes it is. He seems to go overboard a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 No change to the 2000 SPC OTLK... slight risk remains for wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 22, 2016 Author Share Posted June 22, 2016 oops. sorry i said that.. no need to be sorry just an opening to say a lot of people are full of ****. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 22, 2016 Author Share Posted June 22, 2016 SPC.. but if you read only chasers and the usual drama queens you'd think the end of the world was nigh. I mostly am very fearful of the next time we get a high risk for tornadoes. going to be mayhem online. ONCE THIS OCCURS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE VERY SUPPORTIVE FOR INITIAL SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ALL HAZARDS /INCLUDING A TORNADO OR TWO/. QUICK UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A LINEAR MCS IS STILL ANTICIPATED WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY. THIS SCENARIO MATCHES PREVIOUS OUTLOOK THINKING WELL AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE OUTLOOK ACROSS THIS REGION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Ian, this isn't just weenies saying this event has real potential to be bad (heck LOT is going pretty hard in the paint for it). When you consider the short range high res model agreement + SREF, observations and the degree of shear in place here, I don't think people talking it up are out of line (aside from the ones that obviously don't know much). /soapbox Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Some people -- in EVERY setup -- run to the worst case scenario. They get free passes left and right. People that don't are called nuts. true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 22, 2016 Author Share Posted June 22, 2016 Ian, this isn't just weenies saying this event has real potential to be bad (heck LOT is going pretty hard in the paint for it). When you consider the short range high res model agreement + SREF, observations and the degree of shear in place here, I don't think people talking it up are out of line (aside from the ones that obviously don't know much). /soapbox Well... I'll just stop commenting. We're buds so I don't want to offend you lol. I think I generally know how to assess a situation though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 22, 2016 Author Share Posted June 22, 2016 true New HRRR misses Chicago and doesn't have super bright updraft helicity. I doubt it will be widely shared... NSSL WRF oft hugged.. shows rapid upscale. Crickets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Regular NAM is pretty meh IMOthe 4k NAM is LOL - LWX jackpot on the supercell composite maps. But regardless northward extent is a sharp cutoff. 17-18z look pretty interesting on the 4km. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Just to get on Ian's nerves more This is near Bethesda on the 4km NAM for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 New HRRR misses Chicago and doesn't have super bright updraft helicity. I doubt it will be widely shared... NSSL WRF oft hugged.. shows rapid upscale. Crickets. To be fair, that's after a monstrous supercell hammers part of north-central IL. The HRRR might not crush Chicago this run, but it still shows mainly discrete/semi-discrete convection through north-central IL, perhaps affecting the PIA metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 If nothing else the wind profile is fun to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 If nothing else the wind profile is fun to look at. The silly soundings also show up at KIAD and KDCA too For 18z that is ETA: And also at BWI (to a lil lesser extent) and at EZF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 22, 2016 Author Share Posted June 22, 2016 To be fair, that's after a monstrous supercell hammers part of north-central IL. The HRRR might not crush Chicago this run, but it still shows mainly discrete/semi-discrete convection through north-central IL, perhaps affecting the PIA metro. Well it has big UH but not sure a supercell is going to be 6-10 counties big. But eh. The fun thing is we probably aren't that far off in thoughts (SEE MY OPENING HERE LOL) I just don't get the messaging from some folks. Even a big day in population it's hard to destroy a town. Yet there's a constant run to top 5 area events that caused massive devastation and such. This is certainly not worth us fighting over.. unlike many of those who always run big I don't think people who dissent are idiots that need to be taught how to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 The silly soundings also show up at KIAD and KDCA too For 18z that is ETA: And also at BWI (to a lil lesser extent) and at EZF I still like my zone I outlined earlier. Too many muddy factors w/ the MCS progression tonight into tomorrow as well as exact track of the low and how far the front makes it north. You and VA folks will probably score on something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 18z 4km NAM sounding at 24 hrs (18z THUR) at DCA has poss hazard type as PDS TOR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 no need to be sorry just an opening to say a lot of people are full of ****. Saw quite a few on Twitter mentioning derecho when the squall hasn't even formed yet...so I get it. But to be fair, models do look worrisome for later tonight. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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