Kmlwx Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Still in the slight risk for the day 1 outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 If you were to extrapolate the 15z HRRR the MCS certainly doesn't look like it'll miss us to the north on that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Still in the slight risk for the day 1 outlook. The 30% wind/hatched wind contours almost look like they are pointing in our direction for the MCS/derecho for overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Just for reference, here is the euro from last night (via wunderground) - CAPE at 21z Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 If you were to extrapolate the 15z HRRR the MCS certainly doesn't look like it'll miss us to the north on that track. Classic AmWx post here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Just for reference, here is the euro from last night (via wunderground) - CAPE at 21z Thursday. Does the Euro have any known biases for events like these? Either way it does seem like it'll be a game of miles with the Potomac River the battle ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Classic AmWx post here I know - I'm trying to be the biggest weenie today. Just be glad I'm not like this in winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 22, 2016 Author Share Posted June 22, 2016 Does the Euro have any known biases for events like these? Either way it does seem like it'll be a game of miles with the Potomac River the battle ground. Euro usually seems like it's low on instability. Though I haven't looked at anything today really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Euro usually seems like it's low on instability. Though I haven't looked at anything today really. Thanks - that's what I had vaguely remembered. This will be the one time when it's overdone . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 If you were to extrapolate the 15z HRRR the MCS certainly doesn't look like it'll miss us to the north on that track. True, but we would probably be on teh southern side of it ETA: If you extrapolate the 15z RAP at 18 hours, it looks like the majority of it would go north of us, but there is a developing line in WV at 09z THUR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Courtesy of the tornado that visited my backyard yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 everything missed the house? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 everything missed the house? By the grace of God, the house was not damaged. The deck was partly destroyed. Can't say the same for some of my neighbors who had house damage. I have more pics, but they are on another camera at home. Power lines completely toppled, trees blocking access roads, barns on a horse farm across the street were flattened, fences demolished, bark stripped from trees, debris everywhere. No injuries and I have a roof over my head, but a lot of clean up to do. Finding out the hard way that insurance doesn't cover very much for trees that fall and don't hit the house. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 1730 SPC OTLK: ..MID-ATLANTIC. TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE ORGANIZED MCS /AND MOST OF ITS ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW/ WILL BE LARGELY THROUGH THE REGION BY 12Z... WITH ONLY THE DELMARVA PENINSULA EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED BETWEEN 12-15Z. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTIVE BY THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING MANY CONVECTION-ALLOWING RUNS. THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS OUTFLOW AS IT TRACKS ACROSS VA AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. CONSENSUS AMONGST MOST THE GUIDANCE IS THAT THE AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN MOIST EVEN AFTER PASSAGE OF THIS MCS...SUPPORTING MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ONCE DIURNAL HEATING BEGINS. PRESENCE OF THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD THEN INTERACT WITH THIS UNSTABLE AND STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...RESULTING IN MORE SVR TSTMS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WV. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE MODEL CONSENSUS...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT THE MCS WILL HAVE NO EFFECT ON THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE RESULTING UNCERTAINTY ON WHAT EFFECT THE EARLY MORNING MCS HAS IS HIGH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE INCREASING THE SVR PROBABILITIES OVER THIS REGION WITH THIS FORECAST. ONCE MESOSCALE DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR...HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 1730 SPC OTLK: ONCE MESOSCALE DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR...HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. woah, interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 woah, interesting They mentioned that on the previous outlook too. I assume they mean 30% for wind. I'm not sure a moderate can be squeezed from this at least in our immediate area. Maybe, just maybe SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 OK, so where is this MCS that hits us tomorrow morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 OK, so where is this MCS that hits us tomorrow morning? Hasn't formed yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 22, 2016 Author Share Posted June 22, 2016 All the weather world is hype these days. People out west talking wedgefest gonna be disappointed when this thing grows into a cluster in like 5 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 12z Global models have seemed to delay progression of front and have higher dew points/instability for everyone Thursday Afternoon, if this MCS misses north or doesn't form, it could be interesting tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 All the weather world is hype these days. People out west talking wedgefest gonna be disappointed when this thing grows into a cluster in like 5 minutes. Social media has ruined this field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 22, 2016 Author Share Posted June 22, 2016 Social media has ruined this field. Pretty much. I don't think all these enthusiasts were supposed to gather to chat like we do these days. It's almost impossible to not go overboard it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 By the grace of God, the house was not damaged. The deck was partly destroyed. Can't say the same for some of my neighbors who had house damage. I have more pics, but they are on another camera at home. Power lines completely toppled, trees blocking access roads, barns on a horse farm across the street were flattened, fences demolished, bark stripped from trees, debris everywhere. No injuries and I have a roof over my head, but a lot of clean up to do. Finding out the hard way that insurance doesn't cover very much for trees that fall and don't hit the house. MDstorm damn, thank goodness the house wasn't damaged and all is well. sorry about the mess though. hope clean up goes smoothly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 All the weather world is hype these days. People out west talking wedgefest gonna be disappointed when this thing grows into a cluster in like 5 minutes. Too much emphasis is put on pretty color maps and composite parameters these days. And social media has linked all the arm chair mets with the pros and everyone in between. A lot of people see SigTor of 10 and automatically assume tornado outbreak without a care for the science behind it. I know most of us here understand this phenomena but it does feel good to type it out. I'll be the first to admit that I get excited when I see a prime looking composite parameter map - but over the years I've slowly grown accustomed to taking everything with a grain of salt and looking/reading more into it. Obviously I defer to folks like you or the pro mets around. The RT button on Twitter is probably the worst thing for the wx world. It's too easy to propagate false/inaccurate info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 22, 2016 Author Share Posted June 22, 2016 Euro still fairly CAPEy tomorrow. Shrug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Euro still fairly CAPEy tomorrow. Shrug. CAPE boundary is the placed to be...we like to live dangerously here in Wedge City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 22, 2016 Author Share Posted June 22, 2016 Too much emphasis is put on pretty color maps and composite parameters these days. And social media has linked all the arm chair mets with the pros and everyone in between. A lot of people see SigTor of 10 and automatically assume tornado outbreak without a care for the science behind it. I know most of us here understand this phenomena but it does feel good to type it out. I'll be the first to admit that I get excited when I see a prime looking composite parameter map - but over the years I've slowly grown accustomed to taking everything with a grain of salt and looking/reading more into it. Obviously I defer to folks like you or the pro mets around. The RT button on Twitter is probably the worst thing for the wx world. It's too easy to propagate false/inaccurate info. There's some good that comes out of it. I've definitely learned a lot from people online over the years. But these days it's all sort of out of control. Mega focus on finding the best contaminated PDS tor sounding, posting STP for areas that aren't going to convect, etc. I keep waiting for it all to implode on itself and people to come back to reality but it still just keeps getting worse instead. Many "pros" aren't immune either because hype sells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Euro still fairly CAPEy tomorrow. Shrug. Kind of reminds me of winter events where a storm trends away only to try to hook us back in with last minute trends - OT but have you glanced at the LR GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 22, 2016 Author Share Posted June 22, 2016 Kind of reminds me of winter events where a storm trends away only to try to hook us back in with last minute trends - OT but have you glanced at the LR GFS? I wouldn't have except I saw a "pro" tweeting about how he was glad no one posted the 336 GFS.. then everyone started talking about it. At least hurricane hype is more annoying than tornado hype so it makes me hate myself for being into tornadoes a little less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 I wouldn't have except I saw a "pro" tweeting about how he was glad no one posted the 336 GFS.. then everyone started talking about it. At least hurricane hype is more annoying than tornado hype so it makes me hate myself for being into tornadoes a little less. But but but - the system starts to form around 231 hours. Totes in range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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