mappy Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 the pic of the tree splitting the house yesterday, while people were in it, was pretty crazy. thankfully no one was hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z-Cast Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 That quote you had below with the barn damage et al...might want to have them call Howard County OEM. They're doing a damage assessment today.(410) 313-6030 I forwarded her the info. Thanks Joe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 22, 2016 Author Share Posted June 22, 2016 which was a little slow -- survey had time from 1:29 to 1:48 but is preliminary and could change. Think they warned after TDS which showed around 130. Then they called it a possible tornado. Because lwx is terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 the pic of the tree splitting the house yesterday, while people were in it, was pretty crazy. thankfully no one was hurt. Can you share it again? I went to look for it but couldn't find it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 12z 4km NAM looks decent to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 12z 4km NAM looks decent to me Yea, at like 2am, but then again when doesn't it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Yea, at like 2am, but then again when doesn't it. I was talking more about the soundings at 18z... DCA has >3000 SBCAPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 I was talking more about the soundings at 18z... DCA has >3000 SBCAPE Setup kinda reminds me of the June 2013 debacle where we had a solid supercell go through Frederick / Carroll counties. It then died and laid a boundary right across Loudoun/Montgomery/northern PG/Anne Arundel counties that let a lone storm spin up and #wedge across the northern DC suburbs.Maybe we'll get lucky again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 I'll predict 10 total severe reports in the LWX CWA tomorrow. 9 of which will be south of the I-66 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Can you share it again? I went to look for it but couldn't find it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 06z GFS didn't look bad either... 12z GFS is rolling in now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 I'd feel pretty good about Harrisonburg, CHO and RIC getting in on something tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 06z GFS didn't look bad either... 12z GFS is rolling in now Can I come down to your place tomorrow and get whisked away by a wedge? Pls thx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 So is the day 1 slight just because of how early the mcs would get here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 So is the day 1 slight just because of how early the mcs would get here? Yes - and since the SPC outlooks go until 12z the following day it seems mostly like SPC CYAing in case a few isolated reports make it this far. I mostly think the complex will be very heavy rain and slightly gusty winds by the time it gets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 thx for posting that pic, AmWxFreak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 So is the day 1 slight just because of how early the mcs would get here? yes. SPC outlooks go until 12z the following day. So because it would come tonight, early tomorrow, it is technically included in the outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Can we take the 12z GFS and run with it? kthx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 12z GFS tries to warm sector everyone...wouldn't be half bad of a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 12z GFS tries to warm sector everyone...wouldn't be half bad of a day. Toss the NAM. ETA: 12z GFS still takes the low overhead essentially. We'll see. I'll check the CRAS and the CFSv2 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Toss the NAM. Lets combine 12z GFS and 12z 4km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Toss the NAM. ETA: 12z GFS still takes the low overhead essentially. We'll see. I'll check the CRAS and the CFSv2 now. 12k NAM is even more hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 12z GFS sounding at DCA at 18z THUR has 5000 SBCAPE with temps approaching 90 and DP's in the mid 70s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 To be fair...our last few "warm sector advancement dependent" events have had pretty good luck with pushing the warm sector north. Tho none were like this setup. I'd still lean heavily on the south and west idea...But I'm also a big fan of Ian's method of persistence - ex: we got lots of storms yesterday so we shall get lucky again. We just can't know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 12z GFS sounding at DCA at 18z THUR has 5000 SBCAPE with temps approaching 90 and DP's in the mid 70s I have a hard time believing that dewpoint. Shave a couple or a bunch of degrees off that and you'll probably lose a lot of instability. Add in the fact that the warmth may not even be that extensive and we're right back at the meh solutions. IAN - CONVINCE ME OTHERWISE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 If you look closely at the NAM nest, it looks like a monster MCS is about to swallow the entire area at 12z. But most of it actually goes north of DC during the morning. So it heats areas along and south of an axis from roughly Leesburg to Annapolis and generates decent storms on the south side of the MCS/outflow boundary which then move south into the better instability. I'm inclined to think that the outflow will set up further south, but who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Talked to a neighbor a few streets over from me today. She told me that a house got struck by lightning but did not result in a fire. Just had another neighbor post this from his security camera out front of his house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Thanks a bunch. Yeah. That's pretty scary. I have two trees adjacent to my house and always worry that one will decide to come through the house. I'm glad those folks are okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 I need a security system that keeps out lightning. Nice shot, Mrs. J! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Thanks a bunch. Yeah. That's pretty scary. I have two trees adjacent to my house and always worry that one will decide to come through the house. I'm glad those folks are okay. the tree was fairly close to the house -- pic of the backside of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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