Kmlwx Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Everything seems a little early overall.. the jet streak passes early etc. June 2013 has been an analog... the day after the Chicago area High Risk.. that was mainly south of us. I wouldn't rule it out that's for sure. Didn't we have a moderate that day that got shunted way south later in the day? I'll have to look at the t'storm event archives to see how many reports we got in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 GFS tracks the low right through the area. south and west of the Potomac gets in on some decent instability but the low track does look NAMish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 GFS looks nothing like 12z for Thursday. Way further southeast with the low, flow is more northwesterly. Wildcard was the poorly defined troff axis.A Subtle shift in the height field moved it from MI to CT. Really not counting on anything but a rain blob now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Yeah, despite today I am convinced that you're in the best spot for good wx this side of JonJon. Thanks, don't know how true that is, but I do well, usually. I agree. The border area ALWAYS gets crushed by everything. I laugh and point when they get shafted lol. Well aren't you a peach, laughing at others fails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Thanks, don't know how true that is, but I do well, usually. Well aren't you a peach, laughing at others fails. Don't forget, pointing. I point and laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 0.85" from yesterday's storms Nice morning 67 Guy on TV just mentioned the D word. I had to laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Not quite as soupy as yesterday, 62.6/61.6. Almost 3/4 inch of rain from yesterdays activity, nothing in the wind or hail front. Hoping for a little more south extension on the next round of storms . EDIT: Great pics everybody! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Tomorrow am might be the show for the metro areas. Afternoon redevelopment s/sw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Welp - we got a slight risk today to account for late night activity/early morning from the possible complex coming from the NWI'm pretty meh now on tomorrow. Looks sucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Don't forget, pointing. I point and laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 LWX with another lengthy tracked EF0. Their specialty. http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/lsr/#LWX/201606211729/201606211729/0100 added to the database Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 A nice shower tonight or tomorrow will eclipse the Tuesday event for me so Im All In. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 I don't totally understand the late night slight risk, as it sure seems like most guidance has pretty much no cape (sfc-based or elevated) to work with as the complex approaches our area. I guess it's accounting for the possibility that if the models are wrong about that, the swath of wind damage to our northwest could persist into our area. as for tomorrow, while the fail scenario has been well-documented here, I guess there is enough uncertainty to justify maintaining our slight risk for now. Welp - we got a slight risk today to account for late night activity/early morning from the possible complex coming from the NWI'm pretty meh now on tomorrow. Looks sucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Highly doubtful we get severe with the first wave Thursday morning. All guidance showing a low-level inversion until around the normal mixing time of 9-11 a.m., keeping the storms elevated. Some stronger cells may get a glorified gust into the 30s mph, but no true severe. Still low confidence in the afternoon forecast. Seems to be a split between the hi-res models (more south) and the globals (more north). Anyone north of D.C. stand a decent chance of missing out on anything good Thursday afternoon, though the globals are holding out some hope for the I-70 crew. Not really expecting much at the MD/PA line northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Highly doubtful we get severe with the first wave Thursday morning. All guidance showing a low-level inversion until around the normal mixing time of 9-11 a.m., keeping the storms elevated. Some stronger cells may get a glorified gust into the 30s mph, but no true severe. Still low confidence in the afternoon forecast. Seems to be a split between the hi-res models (more south) and the globals (more north). Anyone north of D.C. stand a decent chance of missing out on anything good Thursday afternoon, though the globals are holding out some hope for the I-70 crew. Not really expecting much at the MD/PA line northward. That inversion you describe, is that when we can get that unusually loud and deep rolling thunder? I love that stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Highly doubtful we get severe with the first wave Thursday morning. All guidance showing a low-level inversion until around the normal mixing time of 9-11 a.m., keeping the storms elevated. Some stronger cells may get a glorified gust into the 30s mph, but no true severe. Still low confidence in the afternoon forecast. Seems to be a split between the hi-res models (more south) and the globals (more north). Anyone north of D.C. stand a decent chance of missing out on anything good Thursday afternoon, though the globals are holding out some hope for the I-70 crew. Not really expecting much at the MD/PA line northward. I hate this hobby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 That inversion you describe, is that when we can get that unusually loud and deep rolling thunder? I love that stuff. Yup. Inversion acts as an insulator, with the sound waves reverberating back down from the top of the inversion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 1.50 inches of rain on the dot from my weather gauge yesterday! Pretty much 3 ways! A smaller storm with .13" then .63" then one more splash later in the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 I hate this hobby. Just take up excessive drinking, works for me. This has been a sad excuse for a summer thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Yup. Inversion acts as an insulator, with the sound waves reverberating back down from the top of the inversion. Nice! Early morning is an especially nice time for those kinds of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 The 09z SREFs don't look that bad to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Yoda - that's at 12z. That's probably with the overnight MCS. That's unlikely to do a ton of severe for us - maybe isolated damaging wind at best. The afternoon batch looks quite under whelming on the SREF. Parameters never really recover after that morning batch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 For those hoping for severe we need to hope the low goes north of where it's modeled at this time and also to avoid a long period of stabilizing heavy rain from the remnant cluster of the night before (tonight). Things are looking rather grim for enhanced severe chances DC and north. I'd be okay being in Virginia, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Had two different friends take these. What would cause this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z-Cast Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Anyone know what time the Woodbine/Libson EF0 was warned yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z-Cast Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Severe-warned cell that was over Martinsburg, WVA around 8pm. Taken from Warrenton VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Anyone know what time the Woodbine/Libson EF0 was warned yesterday? 1:34PM http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=TORLWX&e=201606211734 374WFUS51 KLWX 211734 TORLWX MDC005-027-211800- /O.NEW.KLWX.TO.W.0021.160621T1734Z-160621T1800Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 134 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN BALTIMORE COUNTY IN NORTHERN MARYLAND... HOWARD COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND... * UNTIL 200 PM EDT * AT 134 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR SYKESVILLE...OR 8 MILES EAST OF DAMASCUS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FOR THOSE IN THE DIRECT PATH OF A TORNADO TOUCHDOWN... FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND WINDOWS MAY OCCUR. MOBILE HOMES MAY BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... ELLICOTT CITY AROUND 150 PM EDT. COLUMBIA AROUND 155 PM EDT. ELKRIDGE...CATONSVILLE...ARBUTUS AND SAVAGE-GUILFORD AROUND 200 PM EDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE ILCHESTER...GLENELG...DANIELS...ROXBURY MILLS...CLARKSVILLE...WOODSTOCK... DAYTON...LISBON...SAVAGE AND SIMPSONVILLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. && LAT...LON 3935 7703 3936 7700 3930 7671 3928 7671 3927 7669 3918 7674 3918 7675 3916 7677 3912 7679 3912 7682 3929 7712 3936 7706 3936 7705 TIME...MOT...LOC 1734Z 295DEG 29KT 3931 7705 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED HAIL...1.25IN $ DH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 which was a little slow -- survey had time from 1:29 to 1:48 but is preliminary and could change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z-Cast Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 which was a little slow -- survey had time from 1:29 to 1:48 but is preliminary and could change. Thanks mappy. I just found 1:29PM myself. Have a follower that shared the below photo from that same tor, along with this description: Did a tornado touch down in Woodbine, MD today at 1:30? This is a picture of debris that came off the collapsed barn we were sheltered in....tree tops sheared off. Indoor riding ring collapse and a huge tree fell on the other part that didn't collapse . Car damage due to fallen trees, and debris. House chimney blown off. Multiple buildings lost sidings. Barn doors ripped off. Run in sheds picked up and blown into the woods. Tree tops ripped off in multiple spots. Power lines knocked over. List goes on and on. Will report as we did not get alerts until it was over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Thanks mappy. I just found 1:29PM myself. Have a follower that shared the below photo from that same tor, along with this description: That quote you had below with the barn damage et al...might want to have them call Howard County OEM. They're doing a damage assessment today.(410) 313-6030 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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