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June 21 and 23 severe weather risks


Ian

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the cell in Falling Waters and Shepherdstown to my north (supercell? it's too close to get the whole thing):

B95771BF-83C1-4F40-A2C9-AC593240ADC5_zps

nice. lots of good pics today.. unusual for here. maybe not high end svr out of all cells but a notable one either way.

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Wanted to share my experience with that supercell around Frederick last hour. Decided last minute to chase it, hopped on 15S and got on 340/15. Almost got to the split to stay on 15 but didn't need to. Winds were prolific and I was right in the hail core (have a radar scope snap shot to prove it). Was genuinely worried as the hail was making serious noise on the car and honestly thought it would break the windshield. But all in all I chased it back to 270. Good time.

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Wanted to share my experience with that supercell around Frederick last hour. Decided last minute to chase it, hopped on 15S and got on 340/15. Almost got to the split to stay on 15 but didn't need to. Winds were prolific and I was right in the hail core (have a radar scope snap shot to prove it). Was genuinely worried as the hail was making serious noise on the car and honestly thought it would break the windshield. But all in all I chased it back to 270. Good time.

 

You were just to my west. I am about 2 miles from 340 off of Elmer Derr Rd. I reported quarter sized hail over here. 

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2nd wall cloud sighted in the backyard since we moved here.

it looked like a funnel was descending but the rain came immediately and wrapped it.

Just don't quite have the low level winds for tornadoes but everything else is trying. If we could get these cells to the edge of the water... ;)

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In Adams Morgan.  Took these about 45 mins ago right as the cell pulsed over Martinsburg/Sharpsburg.  I could see a lot of lightning after the sun set.

Final Martinsburg Supercell 6/21 - Shot From Adams Morgan, DC

Final Martinsburg Supercell 6/21 - Shot From Adams Morgan, DC

 
This one I took about 20 minutes prior to those just before the previous Frederick supercell collapsed north of Olney.  I got to see a positive strike come off this one.  pretty awesome. 

Final Martinsburg Supercell 6/21 - Shot From Adams Morgan, DC

 

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Well think we are done for the night. 2.06 in my station, that last storm that split I was on the western edge of the right split so not much out of that one to add to my total. 

 

Still excited about the hail. In all my years of watching storms I think that is the first time I have seen hail larger than a pea. 

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The NAM looks really bad DC and north for Thursday...Instability REALLY lacking and severe parameters shunted south. Ian might have had the right idea when he spoke about missing south. If it plays out like that we better hope the pattern reloads and gives us some more shots. 

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The NAM looks really bad DC and north for Thursday...Instability REALLY lacking and severe parameters shunted south. Ian might have had the right idea when he spoke about missing south. If it plays out like that we better hope the pattern reloads and gives us some more shots. 

You can always count on the warmfront trending south in this region, unless it's a snow event. Just look at where the 6z NAM had the low tracking.

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    yeah, this evolution shows up nicely in the NAM nest simulated reflectivity.   The sfc low is further south, and we get a monster early morning MCS (probably non-severe).    The further south sfc low along with the outflow from the MCS effectively push the cold front south of here very early, and a line on the front drops south into central and southern Virginia during the day which is where the severe threat is.

 

     don't know if it's correct, but it's probably not totally unrealistic.

 

 

The NAM looks really bad DC and north for Thursday...Instability REALLY lacking and severe parameters shunted south. Ian might have had the right idea when he spoke about missing south. If it plays out like that we better hope the pattern reloads and gives us some more shots. 

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The NAM looks really bad DC and north for Thursday...Instability REALLY lacking and severe parameters shunted south. Ian might have had the right idea when he spoke about missing south. If it plays out like that we better hope the pattern reloads and gives us some more shots. 

Everything seems a little early overall.. the jet streak passes early etc. June 2013 has been an analog... the day after the Chicago area High Risk.. that was mainly south of us. I wouldn't rule it out that's for sure.

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