Ian Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 I think tomorrow is a mostly go. A few possible kinks but this area blows so who'd really be shocked if it sucks. Thurs perhaps has the higher end potential at least in theory, because it could be part of a larger major severe weather event tied to a long-track derecho type system or some sort of tornado event/mcs/rain/fail type deal. To me I'd be "worried" Thurs tries to miss DC to the south but it's early yet and it's complicated. Not to mention the timing may be off at least as far as peak heating goes. May not be done done after.. general pattern seems to want to continue a while tho not necessarily any super apparent days past this week just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 21, 2016 Author Share Posted June 21, 2016 Experimental HRRR has 3 rounds of storms but they come early and it's the experimental HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 On the COD site the maps are showing the stupid CINH hatching on the CAPE maps over a good chunk of the metro area. Some crazy parameters for Thursday but not quite our area. I wouldn't be surprised at all if both days largely fail except in isolated spots. But if Ian is sort of on board I guess i'll follow. I guess I got mod-hvy rain and rumbles of thunder the other day...really hunting something more exciting though. I think we'll get storms tomorrow over a lot of folks but intensity and what areas remain to be determined. Hope I can score 1/2 days at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 I think tomorrow is a mostly go. A few possible kinks but this area blows so who'd really be shocked if it sucks. Thurs perhaps has the higher end potential, because it could be part of a larger major severe weather event tied to a long-track derecho type system or some sort of tornado event/mcs/rain/fail type deal. To me I'd be "worried" Thurs tries to miss DC to the south but it's early yet and it's complicated. Not to mention the timing may be off at least as far as peak heating goes. May not be done done after.. general pattern seems to want to continue a while tho not necessarily any super apparent days past this week just yet. The 0z NAM (and prior runs as well) have had a lot of clutter around in the morning Thursday. I'd be worried we just rain or get socked in with clouds like we tend to do on *potentially* higher end days. But any time I hear you tossing out the words higher end I do turn my attention. It would be nice to get a good old fashioned 90s/00s squall line...I know I mention my stupid anecdotal evidence EVERY year but it always comes to mind. We just seem to have drifted away from those multiple time per year strong/severe lines of storms that woudl sweep across the area. Unless I'm delusional...but I distinctly watching TWC local on the 8s and seeing solid lines of reds sweeping over us. Seems to be a lot more unusual the past group of years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 I expect that when we wake up in the morning, the Tuesday slight risk will be shifted a fair amount north of where the day 2 outlook had it. Storms may initiate by early afternoon, and the wind fields will be strengthening. Not sure if we'll see a squall line, but there should at least be several clusters or a broken line that generates svr. Still a lot of details to be resolved for Thursday, but seems like there is at least a chance of a healthy squall line moving southeast across the area during the late afternoon or early evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Just from a quick look of the American models, today's timing is early afternoon and Thurs has a leftover MCS in the morning and then fires it up in the afternoon again. Those multi-storm days can be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Just from a quick look of the American models, today's timing is early afternoon and Thurs has a leftover MCS in the morning and then fires it up in the afternoon again. Those multi-storm days can be fun. For Thurs tho we have to hope that the leftovers in the morning don't wreck our odds at something later. Though some of our higher end days definitely have early activity followed by robust clearing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 I'm still trying to figure out how to partly like its 1998. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 latest HRRRRRRRRRR run doesn't look awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 latest HRRRRRRRRRR run doesn't look awful. Have you looked to your north, probably won't make it and might go east of you if it does but wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Storm rolling down out of PA looks like a supercell no? Very tall, near 45kft with a hell of a hail core.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 HRRR initiates the afternoon stuff pretty early - looks like 16-17z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Have you looked to your north, probably won't make it and might go east of you if it does but wow... I saw it on radar when I left the house -- the radio was crackling from the lightning. Don't think the first cell will hit my backyard, but the second batch behind it might. Of course I am not home anymore... about 20 minutes south at work in Hunt Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 I think the 06z 4km NAM probably has the best idea on how today will play out, as far as timing and coverage are concerned (though maybe a bit too early?). Exact storm placement TBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Storm rolling down out of PA looks like a supercell no? Very tall, near 45kft with a hell of a hail core.... That it does. There is a mountain right in NE Adams County which probably aided the updraft. Multiple reports of roof and hail damage. The core passed about 2-4 miles west of my home in New Salem, PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 8" of rain in two hours in Loudoun Co. with the supercell this afternoon per the 4km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 To me, I'd be worried today misses us to the south. It's really not that far north of us at this point and it's really early in the day. I think today is a Central VA and south event, but what do I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 A miss to the south to start the day. Dark sky looks impressive from that cell over Front Royal. Can hear thunder from it 10 miles away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 SPC shifts Slight Risk north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 To me, I'd be worried today misses us to the south. It's really not that far north of us at this point and it's really early in the day. I think today is a Central VA and south event, but what do I know. Are you referring to the S PA cells? They have died off and those aren't really what's hitting us (or supposed to) later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Ha, of course as soon as I say I think it will be south of us, SPC shifts the slight risk well through our area and I notice that the HRRR (though it's been sooooooo bad for quite awhile now and is probably way overdone) has storms basically sitting over the area from noon to 8 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 well, it took until the 13z update, but we got there. I expect that when we wake up in the morning, the Tuesday slight risk will be shifted a fair amount north of where the day 2 outlook had it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Ha, of course as soon as I say I think it will be south of us, SPC shifts the slight risk well through our area and I notice that the HRRR (though it's been sooooooo bad for quite awhile now and is probably way overdone) has storms basically sitting over the area from noon to 8 pm. The HRRR always likes to over-convect - I think one of the mets discussed it during the last event or two. The HRRRx is better apparently. I think a good chunk of the area should get storms today. Obviously the normal caveats apply. I'm optimistic too that those cells up in PA might leave behind some boundaries to fire stuff off later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 I like the 1300 SPC OTLK disco... splitting sups are often fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 The HRRR always likes to over-convect - I think one of the mets discussed it during the last event or two. The HRRRx is better apparently. I think a good chunk of the area should get storms today. Obviously the normal caveats apply. I'm optimistic too that those cells up in PA might leave behind some boundaries to fire stuff off later. That's a good point about the boundaries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 That's a good point about the boundaries. Mostly, though it's just my weenie way of overhoping for storms. I'm sure I'll end up going down with the ship. Ian got me pretty amped up about this stretch. Plus, other than some rain and thunder I've missed out on a lot of the supercells and severe events so far this year. BRING IT. I'm going to Yoda all the way today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 yes, the HRRR mixes out inversions too aggressively, allowing for too early and too widespread convective initiation and coverage. The HRRRX mitigates this a lot. that said, the HRRRX also initiates a healthy number of storms fairly early today, and other hi-res guidance agrees, so I think there is reason to buy into this idea. The HRRR always likes to over-convect - I think one of the mets discussed it during the last event or two. The HRRRx is better apparently. I think a good chunk of the area should get storms today. Obviously the normal caveats apply. I'm optimistic too that those cells up in PA might leave behind some boundaries to fire stuff off later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 I like the 1300 SPC OTLK disco... splitting sups are often fun Let's just be honest - you'd enjoy the outlook if it said "an isolated wind gust to 40mph could be possible" - then you'd get me roped in and it would all end in sadness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 21, 2016 Author Share Posted June 21, 2016 I'm still trying to figure out how to partly like its 1998. Post ninoing. 1998 was a good one in the northeast.. tho maybe mainly north of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 It looks like there may already be some stuff starting to fire in Western PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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