Louieloy102 Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 4km NAM has initiation very similar (timing and location) to the NMM i posted above Thinking the highest severe threat stays just southwest of the loop/city proper (over the favored local southwest suburban tornado alley into hoosiertown) but it's certainly going to be within striking distance 4K NAM simulated radar agrees with you. Similar radar feel to the 6/22/15 storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 lol, not every day you see this...1000+ J/kg CAPE and 1000 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH on the same forecast sounding south of South Bend at 3z Thursday. Though there's a fair amount of cap/CINH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 i wouldn't worry about a cap bust at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 i wouldn't worry about a cap bust at this point Agree. There looks like some convective influence in that particular area at that particular time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Going through the 4km simulated reflectivity really suggests little break in activity tomorrow in northern IL/IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Going through the 4km simulated reflectivity really suggests little break in activity tomorrow in northern IL/IN. It does have new development late tomorrow afternoon around Galena that goes on to nail Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Going through the 4km simulated reflectivity really suggests little break in activity tomorrow in northern IL/IN. if there ends up being overlap between areas that see 1"+ with the midday convection and then heavy severe storms, the waterlogged ground could certainly ramp up any tree damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Galena to Rockford, Rochelle to DVN box looks good for the afternoon convection development tomorrow. Given lapse rates, I wouldn't be surprised if we see what we saw yesterday, with anvil heads climbing 25k ft+ in a matter of 20-30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 off the 4km NAM at 0z between Dixon and Rochelle about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Couple nice helicity tracks, then it turns into a bow as it approaches the IN border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 off the 4km NAM at 0z between Dixon and Rochelle about 4km nam weds.png sick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 off the 4km NAM at 0z between Dixon and Rochelle about 4km nam weds.png Man if a discrete to semi discrete storm tracked through that environment... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 off the 4km NAM at 0z between Dixon and Rochelle about 4km nam weds.png Yes, exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 12z GFS is more in line with 12z 4k NAM tracking the low from Chicago to Toledo to Pitt with the 12z NAM being a bit north of that. Risk areas need to be shifted/expanded south some imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 12z GFS is more in line with 12z 4k NAM tracking the low from Chicago to Toledo to Pitt with the 12z NAM being a bit north of that. Risk areas need to be shifted/expanded south some imo. I think trimming the northern end would be justified. Not sure about how much of a southward expansion though given capping concerns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Victor Gensini and myself are most likely going to launch a 19z or 20z wx balloon out in the field with current thinking near or close to Rochelle, but it will obviously all depend on the warm front placement by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 I think trimming the northern end would be justified. Not sure about how much of a southward expansion though given capping concerns. Via Ricky, they are going to change the orientation a bit but keep all the LOT CWA in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 HRRR showing those storms firing over Iowa late tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Via Ricky, they are going to change the orientation a bit but keep all the LOT CWA in it. Seems like a good call at this point. Don't want to overreact too far only to have to bring it northward tomorrow. I was thinking they might cut some out of WI/MI but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Via Ricky, they are going to change the orientation a bit but keep all the LOT CWA in it. i really don't see the need to keep places like Lake Co in the moderate but they're the pros Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Via Ricky, they are going to change the orientation a bit but keep all the LOT CWA in it. Smart call. I think its in a decent place now despite being a little too far north in WI and too horizontal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 I think that Northern IN will be the sweet spot, once the initiation gets going in Northern IL. Hooiser east looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 The 12z NSSL WRF keeps Chicago safe as the warm front stays south but is very bad news for DVN and into IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 i really don't see the need to keep places like Lake Co in the moderate but they're the pros Could have something to do with what I posted above. Also, I'm not sure how much input LOT has in this outlook but if they do, still being a day out and for consistency they might not want to have only one or two of their counties removed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 The 12z NSSL WRF keeps Chicago safe as the warm front stays south but is very bad news for DVN and into IL uh25_max.us_mw.png Another one that has a lot of festering convection during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Well this is just bad bad bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Well this is just bad bad bad arw1.png Sheesh. That track is similar to that 6/22/15 cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Updated Torcon threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Louieloy102 Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Well this is just bad bad bad arw1.png Right on line with Coal City again. Mini tornado alley out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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