Radtechwxman Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 I was thinking the same thing about LOT. Only highlighted flash flood threat. Hopefully Izzi will be on for a shift soon. Love his severe weather analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 I was thinking the same thing about LOT. Only highlighted flash flood threat. Hopefully Izzi will be on for a shift soon. Love his severe weather analysis I heard he was going in tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 We noted the lack of mention of the severe threat in the afternoon AFD and an update has been posted this evening along with our weather story graphic. The afternoon guidance was quite concerning. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Beautiful picture of the cell firing up around Hillsdale MI all the way from BG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 We noted the lack of mention of the severe threat in the afternoon AFD and an update has been posted this evening along with our weather story graphic. The afternoon guidance was quite concerning. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Beautiful picture of the cell firing up around Hillsdale MI all the way from BG Was just out by the cell in Bronson on the way back from Coldwater, got some nice hail on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Tornado sig. just popped on GRLevelX on the Bronson cell, good thing I'm headed home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted June 21, 2016 Author Share Posted June 21, 2016 View of the Hillsdale, Michigan storm from here in Findlay, Ohio this evening at sunset. 6/20/2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Beautiful picture of the cell firing up around Hillsdale MI all the way from BG Same storm from 60 miles NE in Howell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 We noted the lack of mention of the severe threat in the afternoon AFD and an update has been posted this evening along with our weather story graphic. The afternoon guidance was quite concerning. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk noice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Amazing write up. Highlighted all the concerns and parameters working in favor of a sig severe wx event. I do for see morning convection persisting but I'm confident in some clearing occurring to the south of this. Outflow should really enhance the warm front. With strong capping building north and strong directional and speed shear, I think a discrete mode at first is a good bet. Man if any cell latches onto wf or ofb and is discrete we could have a significant tornado. Incredible shear/cape combo for June Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 ILN thoughts. Area Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Wilmington OH800 PM EDT MON JUN 20 2016.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...An active convective period is expected Wednesday into Thursday. Anorthwest-southeast oriented warm front will initially stretch fromnorthwest Iowa to southwest Kentucky Wednesday morning. This frontwill lift northeast through the day, reaching the ILN forecast areaby Wednesday evening and becoming more diffuse as it lifts intonortheast Ohio Wednesday night. Meanwhile a developing surface lowwill track east from the Plains into the southern Great Lakes.Northwest flow aloft will bring a ripple of weak H5 shortwaves andPVA through the region, parallel to the warm front, enhancing thesynoptic lift during this period.Anomalously high moisture will be in place with PWATs increasing to1.8 to 2.0 inches by Wednesday evening (2-3 standard deviationsabove normal). The atmosphere will become very unstable south of thefront during the day, with the ILN forecast area progged to be onthe northern edge of this instability gradient. In addition, bulkshear will be very impressive for this time of year with 0-6kmvalues around 50-60 knots, supportive for organized storms. Needlessto say, the ingredients are coming into place for a potentiallysignificant MCS across the region, with a good chance for itaffecting the ILN CWA.This far out, there is lower confidence in timing, storm hazards,and impacted locations. Models continue to show a muddled QPF fieldand are struggling to some extent with convective feedback fromelevated activity to our west Tuesday night. The 20.12Z NAM inparticular has shown the greatest run-to-run change, shifting a bitmore northeast. Leaned more on the GFS/ECMWF and ensembles for thisforecast given their better consistency. Isolated/scattered activitywill be possible along the front during the morning, but the bestchance for strong to severe storms impacting the ILN CWA will comein the later afternoon and evening timeframe when surface basedinstability will be highest. All storm hazards (gusty winds, largehail, flash flooding, and perhaps an isolated tornado) will be inplay given the instability, impressive shear/hodographs, and frontalboundary in place. Showers and storms will continue Wednesday nightinto Thursday as a strong 850mb 40-50+ knot LLJ (2-4 standarddeviations above normal) develops. Given ~2 inch PWATs, deep warmcloud layers, tall/skinny CAPE, and very strong moisture transport,resultant training of heavy rain over the same areas may lead toflash flooding if multiple cells generate and merge along theboundary Wednesday into Wednesday night.A cold front will push through the southern CWA on Thursday withprecip chances tapering off behind it. High pressure at the surfaceand aloft will provide a dry and mostly sunny period Friday andSaturday. Upper ridge axis will push east on Sunday, with uppertrough and cold front bringing the next chance for precip Sundayinto Monday. Temperatures will generally remain above normal throughthe period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 This is pretty good for still being a couple days out. No real surprise as most of the parameters this is based off of are in excess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Warm front is right through Chicagoland on the 00z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 From the 0Z NAM some of the composites seemed to increase in MI and OH. The SHARpy SARS Analogs cant even find anything for this event anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Warm front is right through Chicagoland on the 00z NAM. ORD at 00z Thu. There's some other areas nearby where the flow is backed more southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Warm front is right through Chicagoland on the 00z NAM. I wonder how far south it will end up, 4km and 12km are a fair amount apart on placement. I was thinking this would be more of an I80 event, but I wonder if I'm thinking too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 ORD at 00z Thu. There's some other areas nearby where the flow is backed more southeast. 00_NAM_048_KORD_severe_ml.png Looks a bit saturated. 2.13 in PWAT would likely portend HP cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Given the WNW flow in the mid levels, even in places where the sfc winds are more southerly or south-southwest still yields a lot of curvature. Storm mode is a question but even in a linear mess, there could be a pretty substantial risk of spinups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Had some pretty good severe weather move through here in the last hour. 60 MPH winds and up to quarter size hail. Think I watched several hundred lightning strikes as the storms moved in from the north. A few videos from my backyard looking north. Lightning Pic: Dime/Nickel size hail: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Here's the mesoanalysis from around noon on 6/12/13 from the thread in this sub. The 12-13C isotherm is about the southern extent of the action on this day FWIW. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/40472-severe-threat-june-11-13/page-17 +12 is pretty common rule of thumb temp, though every set up is different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted June 21, 2016 Author Share Posted June 21, 2016 Just north of chicago.... To me, that looks like it is Convectively Contaminated... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Just north of chicago.... That's from the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Looks a bit saturated. 2.13 in PWAT would likely portend HP cells. Rain Wrapped HP tors in a heavily populated area...certainly a recipe for disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Yeah the potential would last long after dark with this one. Soundings are uncapped all the way to Ohio by morning. If anything the models got more impressive with the overnight parameters since my shift ended early this morning. 18z NAM ripping > -7 C/km theta-e lapse rates after midnight with 70 knot winds aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Any opinions on what the SPC is gonna do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Very early look at HRRRX placement of MCS Wednesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Any opinions on what the SPC is gonna do? Gut feeling is that the activity earlier in the day will make them reluctant to upgrade yet, but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Even sitting on the outside of this one, the numbers are straight up scary, interested to see what the SPC does on the day 2... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Gut feeling is that the activity earlier in the day will make them reluctant to upgrade yet, but who knows. Most likely punt formation until the murky waters clear up. I mean has anything really changed that could push them one way or another from last night (other than some run to run consistency)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.