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6/19-6/23 Severe Weather Risk


Jim Martin

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They had the tornado possible tag on the severe warning, so they didn't exactly miss it.

They did, but that was when the warning was issued, which was after 3 scans showing debris on CC and also velocity showing typical signs of a likely tornado or soon to be one before the debris sigs showed up.

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new tor watch out now.

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 SEL7   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 287   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   1025 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A   * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF      CENTRAL...NORTHERN AND EASTERN INDIANA     NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY     WESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO   * EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 1025     PM UNTIL 500 AM EDT.   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...     A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE     WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS       TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE     ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE   SUMMARY...A GROUPING OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INITIALLY OVER NORTHERN   ILLINOIS...NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN IS   EXPECTED TO BECOME STILL MORE ORGANIZED AS IT ACCELERATES INTO AND   ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.  DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME THE MAIN   THREAT...PERHAPS WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE ENOUGH TO QUALIFY AS A   DERECHO.  EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS ALSO MAY REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING   A TORNADO OR TWO.  SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1024 FOR FURTHER   INITIAL DETAILS.   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE   MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF   LAFAYETTE INDIANA TO 50 MILES SOUTH OF COLUMBUS OHIO.  FOR A   COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE   UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.   &&   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 286...   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE   WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO   550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 30040.   ...EDWARDS
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I think before you start throwing stones, let's see what (if anything) was not accounted for with a warning and how the NWS reacted.

Chances are the NWS might have more tools than the RadarScope app.

They have many more tools than radar scope. For one, they have every single tilt on AWIPS II. There was only a very weak ZDR drop with the CC, so I was skeptical, even though it was in the correct location. I've been lucky enough to test a simulation for the Warning Decision Training Division using AWIPS II. Their stuff is excellent and I see why this wasn't jumped on right away. I don't remember what the previous severe warning said, but if it was also tornado possible, technically they had their bases covered.

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They have many more tools than radar scope. For one, they have every single tilt on AWIPS II. There was only a very weak ZDR drop with the CC, so I was skeptical, even though it was in the correct location. I've been lucky enough to test a simulation for the Warning Decision Training Division using AWIPS II. Their stuff is excellent and I see why this wasn't jumped on right away. I don't remember what the previous severe warning said, but if it was also tornado possible, technically they had their bases covered.

I didn't realize you waited to pull a TOR warning until a TDS is present. How do you want to address the strong velocity signature? All offices have a low/no lead time warning on occasion, but LOT dragged their bums on this one.

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