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6/19-6/23 Severe Weather Risk


Jim Martin

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These hourly updates rule

 

 


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL  801 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016     MESOSCALE DISCUSSION    800 PM CDT    LOCALIZED TORNADO THREAT ALONG THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES WITH  SUPERCELL STORMS TRAINING ALONG OR NEAR THIS FEATURE FROM JUST  EAST OF THE QUAD CITIES TO SOUTHERN DEKALB COUNTY/NORTHERN LASALLE  COUNTY. WITH THE STORM THAT HAD TRACKED NOW INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN  DEKALB / FAR NORTHERN LASALLE COUNTY WE HAVE RECEIVED MULTIPLE  REPORTS OF A TORNADO WITH /MOST RECENT NORTH OF EARLVILLE/ AND  HAS HAD A MORE PERSISTENT MESOCYCLONE WITH IT. THIS STORM HAS  TAKEN ON A MUCH MORE HP NATURE AND SPOTTER REPORTS HAVE CONFIRMED  RAIN-WRAPPED NATURE OF THIS LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONE.    OTHER SUPERCELL STORMS TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF  TORNADO PRODUCERS AS WELL. OVERALL THE WARM SECTOR WINDS HAVE  BECOME A BIT LESS GUSTY AND THE BOUNDARY APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME  STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHERN LASALLE COUNTY TOWARD MORRIS. WITH  INCREASING FLOW ON THE LOT VWP /25 KT NOW AT 2000 FT/ AND  CONTINUED TURNING PROFILES ALONG THE BOUNDARY...THE TORNADO  POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE IN THIS CORRIDOR NEAR THE BOUNDARY   ESPECIALLY IF THE STORMS CAN MAINTAIN A SEMI-DISCRETE MODE.  PARAMETERS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEFLY  STRONGER TORNADO.    FURTHER TO THE NORTH, ELEVATED STORMS HAVE SHOWN AN INCREASE AND  ARE APPROACHING THE HEART OF THE CHICAGO AREA. THESE LOOK TO MOVE  INTO THE CITY STARTING 8:25-8:50 PM. SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE  STARTING TO CONGEAL AND MAY BRING GRADUALLY INCREASING WIND GUST  POTENTIAL HIGHER THAN 35 MPH. CERTAINLY LIGHTNING AND HEAVY  DOWNPOURS LOOK LIKE A GIVEN.    MTF  
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