6/19-6/23 Severe Weather Risk

[A-L-E-K]

996 over geos with monster cape and it's still lame

 

12z GFS and NAM both showing weak morning garbage and than a hot humid convection free afternoon and evening

 

2016 will find a way

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

996 over geos with monster cape and it's still lame

12z GFS and NAM both showing weak morning garbage and than a hot humid convection free afternoon and evening

2016 will find a way

The GFS and NAM always have problems with caps this far out man. Positive thinking for you.

[snowlover2]

IND thinks Moderate risk is possible by the time Wed gets here.

 

 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1010 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2016

.

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Wednesday Night/...
Issued at 358 AM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016

Focus then shifts in the short term to the potential for ridge
riding MCSs, especially late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning
and again Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Given the
projected very unstable atmosphere and quite strong kinematic
fields, the potential will exist for one or more widespread
damaging wind/derecho events somewhere in the region, perhaps
impacting portions of central Indiana. SPC day 3 enhanced risk is
quite reasonable given this pattern, and would not be surprised to
see that upgraded by the time Wednesday arrives and much more is
known about the vital mesoscale details. Suffice to say, a
conditional but substantial severe weather threat will exist mid
week across central Indiana.

Consensus numbers were reasonable throughout on max and min temps,
and only minor tweaks were required.

[Hoosier]

The #1 CIPS analog is 6/12/13, which actually went high risk.  Some other decent events on the list as well.

[AppsRunner]

I will say this though, the main potential area has been nosing north run to run. Tomorrow will be a very crucial day, if the front doesn't go very far south, the potential area may shift north some. Tomorrow really doesn't look spectacular so the push by the front may not be too far south. 

4 consistent jumps north from the NAM. Runs yesterday were going across I-70 and now tracks through Lake Michigan-DTW. 

 

I'm pretty interested in the next day or so worth of model runs. There's definitely going to be some severe weather though, we'll see if the ALEK/Powerball curse continues for areas north of I-80

[Indystorm]

The #1 CIPS analog is 6/12/13, which actually went high risk.  Some other decent events on the list as well.

Ah, that powerful derecho sweeping from northern IN se to the east coast.  Was in Elkhart that day as the storms were getting going over me.  Good storm but much more powerful as it swept se.  This Wednesday looks like the best set up for severe in our sub forum for this whole season if you ask me.

[Hoosier]

Of course it's possible that it comes back south, but I think I may not have been giving enough credit to the synoptic setup.  We have a 1000 mb low, possibly a little deeper, with fairly decent low level wind fields.  Barring repeated thunderstorm activity, there's really no good reason for the front to get hung up too far south.

[A-L-E-K]

Of course it's possible that it comes back south, but I think I may not have been giving enough credit to the synoptic setup.  We have a 1000 mb low, possibly a little deeper, with fairly decent low level wind fields.  Barring repeated thunderstorm activity, there's really no good reason for the front to get hung up too far south.

 

 

made same mistake here, i'm so used to subtle waves this time of year that i forgot we're dealing with 998 over wisconsinwx

 

timing looks poor here but 6/12/13 is a solid analog IMO

[hlcater]

made same mistake here, i'm so used to subtle waves this time of year that i forgot we're dealing with 998 over wisconsinwx

 

timing looks poor here but 6/12/13 is a solid analog IMO

That was a good day for sups out here in IA. Didn't get any here but there were several smaller supercells up north of 20 that had tors. However, NAM and GFS fire to the east of here and the only storms we get are in the early morning.

[snowlover2]

Forbes from 10-15 nmins ago.

 

 

WEDNESDAY 6/22
Severe weather outbreak likely with severe thunderstorms along a warm front and surface low in north-central and east ND, northeast SD, west-central and south MN, north-central and east IA, west-central and south WI, IL, IN, west and south OH, north and east KY, southwest WV, southwest MI. TORCON - 5 north IL; 4 central IL, IN; 3 south IL, south WI, southwest MI, OH and KY areas; 2 rest of area

 

[Stebo]

Hmmm, a line of t'storms are already starting to develop near Lake Michigan and there's even a warning out.

Models were not picking up on this at all.

Weakening, though I am sure once it is in Ohio it will pick up steam again...

[Hoosier]

NAM forecast sounding near me at 21z Wed.  CAPE is not huge and there's some CINH but this is a nasty shear profile.

 

 

[cyclone77]

Speaking of the 6/12/13 event, some of the southern portion of the high risk, and points south of that stayed capped off and saw nothing from the event.  So obviously it's going to be quite important where the effective warm front ends up later Wed.  With the dynamics coming into play overtop strong instability, there's no doubt we should see a seriously impressive MCS develop by Wed night.  Biggest question is where the setup ends up.  Gonna be hard to know until we get to Wed.

[chase_stormz]

Speaking of the 6/12/13 event, some of the southern portion of the high risk, and points south of that stayed capped off and saw nothing from the event.  So obviously it's going to be quite important where the effective warm front ends up later Wed.  With the dynamics coming into play overtop strong instability, there's no doubt we should see a seriously impressive MCS develop by Wed night.  Biggest question is where the setup ends up.  Gonna be hard to know until we get to Wed.

 

...And how rapidly the event transitions from discrete supercells to bowing MCS. 6/5/10 and 6/12/13 took much longer to do so than events such as 6/30/14. 

[Powerball]

Weakening, though I am sure once it is in Ohio it will pick up steam again...

Figures.

[cyclone77]

...And how rapidly the event transitions from discrete supercells to bowing MCS. 6/5/10 and 6/12/13 took much longer to do so than events such as 6/30/14. 

 

Good question.  One thing's for sure, any sup that does stay discrete will be hauling ass.  Model soundings showing over 50kt storm speeds lol.

[ILwxchr]

12z 4km NAM has 700mb temps pushing 15C close to the Quad Cities and into Illinois by Wednesday afternoon/evening.  That is pretty stout, especially south of the boundary. Not to mention LFC's on some of the soundings are pushing above 1300 meters. Higher than I'd typically want to see. No doubt the potential is high with any storm that can maintain a discrete mode along that boundary (wherever that sets up) on Wednesday evening.

[cyclone77]

12z 4km NAM has 700mb temps pushing 15C close to the Quad Cities and into Illinois by Wednesday afternoon/evening.  That is pretty stout, especially south of the boundary. Not to mention LFC's on some of the soundings are pushing above 1300 meters. Higher than I'd typically want to see. No doubt the potential is high with any storm that can maintain a discrete mode along that boundary (wherever that sets up) on Wednesday evening.

 

Here's the mesoanalysis from around noon on 6/12/13 from the thread in this sub.  The 12-13C isotherm is about the southern extent of the action on this day FWIW.  

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/40472-severe-threat-june-11-13/page-17

[Hoosier]

Gil's thoughts

 

Then comes the less certain part. If we can clear outsufficiently for at least a few hours behind the morning thunderstorms,the warm front is expected to approach the area during the late afternoon.As this happens, strong lift will occur at the low levels alongand just ahead of it. That will be supported by a disturbancein the jet stream which will swing through bringingstronger winds aloft...up to 80 MPH from the west at 10,000'.Meanwhile, breezy southeasterly winds at the surface will producestrong turning of the winds from southeast to westerly with height.Current forecast atmospheric profiles support thunderstorms breakingout just ahead of the warm front by mid-late afternoon, *givenenough surface heating*. Should this occur, the atmosphericprofiles are conducive for thunderstorms producing all modesof severe weather, including large hail, damaging straight-linewinds, and tornadoes...any of which could potentially be high-endin intensity. The timing of the front, the potential for cloudcover, and the potential for the warm front to be suppressedfarther south due to morning thunderstorms all negate ahigher forecast risk of severe at this time. That said...going with a high-end enhanced risk of severe is whatI was thinking when I saw the data and modelslast night...and the Storm Prediction Center is totallyon board with that as well.http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.htmlAgain, there are significant uncertainties with thissetup, but so many ingredients are expected to be in placethat even if a few are somewhat lacking, other factors mayovercome them. As a result, this prompts me to suggestthat you watch the weather very carefully on Wednesday,as there is potential for something bad to happen eitherhere or nearby. Look for highs in the 80s...dependingon sunshine, we could be warmer than shown.

 

http://weather.admin.niu.edu/forecast.txt

[ILwxchr]

Here's the mesoanalysis from around noon on 6/12/13 from the thread in this sub.  The 12-13C isotherm is about the southern extent of the action on this day FWIW.  

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/40472-severe-threat-june-11-13/page-17

Thanks! Yeah if I remember correctly storms were pretty closely tied to the boundary that day. That was a fun chase day.

[Torchageddon]

The line of storms is almost perfectly on the boarder of northern IN.

[Hoosier]

Have spent the last while digging into this Wednesday setup more and am pretty impressed.  The CAPE/shear combo is almost frightening and something that we usually only get a limited number of times in this region in a given year.  I absolutely expect an upgrade to the enhanced risk area, if not tonight then after as details become more clear.

[RyanDe680]

Have spent the last while digging into this Wednesday setup more and am pretty impressed.  The CAPE/shear combo is almost frightening and something that we usually only get a limited number of times in this region in a given year.  I absolutely expect an upgrade to the enhanced risk area, if not tonight then after as details become more clear.

 

Same here and I would think a slight nudge north is going to happen.

[hlcater]

Have spent the last while digging into this Wednesday setup more and am pretty impressed. The CAPE/shear combo is almost frightening and something that we usually only get a limited number of times in this region in a given year. I absolutely expect an upgrade to the enhanced risk area, if not tonight then after as details become more clear.

Spc may push it east as well. Based on GFS and NAM solutions, We would be too far west to get in on the action. by 21z the low is located near IA/MN/WI border region limiting the westward extent that the spc has painted on current day 3.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Back to today the storms left Michigan and are strengthening as expected.

[purduewx80]

it's entirely possible there is a serial derecho over iowa in the morning that weakens a bit before ramping back up in the ohio valley for the afternoon. that's the first speed max some of the discussions have mentioned. the 2nd and more impressive max will get things going somewhere over eastern IA/nrn IL or srn WI in the afternoon. the ongoing heat wave over the southwest and rockies means the cap is going to be every bit as stout as modeled...surface-based development will come down to whether or not the cap gets there before initiation. despite high freezing levels, the CAPE and shear modeled may lead to some substantial hail with the initial supercells, whether they're elevated or sfc-based. either way another MCS will develop in the evening and follow the warm front southeast. looks to me like parts of IN/OH/KY could see at least 1 and quite possibly 2 derechos on wednesday.

 

lots of ifs and buts, but i think the spc outlook highlights things very well right now.

[A-L-E-K]

it's entirely possible there is a serial derecho over iowa in the morning that weakens a bit before ramping back up in the ohio valley for the afternoon. that's the first speed max some of the discussions have mentioned. the 2nd and more impressive max will get things going somewhere over eastern IA/nrn IL or srn WI in the afternoon. the ongoing heat wave over the southwest and rockies means the cap is going to be every bit as stout as modeled...surface-based development will come down to whether or not the cap gets there before initiation. despite high freezing levels, the CAPE and shear modeled may lead to some substantial hail with the initial supercells, whether they're elevated or sfc-based. either way another MCS will develop in the evening and follow the warm front southeast. looks to me like parts of IN/OH/KY could see at least 1 and quite possibly 2 derechos on wednesday.

 

lots of ifs and buts, but i think the spc outlook highlights things very well right now.

 

 

i think it's possible if not likely that we see dying junk in the morning followed by a miss to the east in the afternoon

 

hoping for the best but not all that excited despite the modeled CAPE / shear

[purduewx80]

i think it's possible if not likely that we see dying junk in the morning followed by a miss to the east in the afternoon

 

hoping for the best but not all that excited despite the modeled CAPE / shear

can't disagree at all. the synoptic ingredients point towards initial development in the afternoon that would more than likely affect the chicago area, but it all comes down to the mesoscale cooperating, which obviously we won't know much about for at least 24 hours.

[homedis]

i think it's possible if not likely that we see dying junk in the morning followed by a miss to the east in the afternoon

 

hoping for the best but not all that excited despite the modeled CAPE / shear

True. Not too optimistic attm- seems like the classic scenario to skip over us

[The_Doctor]

can someone tell me their thoughts for my area (bloomington in) wednesday? from what i can tell i think i'm too far south/west