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6/19-6/23 Severe Weather Risk


Jim Martin

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Would've liked to see more recovery here for a better severe threat (at least tornado wise) but we've been getting some peeks of sun and the better airmass is not that far away with a substantial gradient even from here to IKK.  So, will be watching things closely in the next hour or two to see if there's more of a rebound than I expect. 

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ILC195-230030-

/O.NEW.KDVN.SV.W.0034.160622T2330Z-160623T0030Z/

 

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL

630 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A

 

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

  WHITESIDE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...

 

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

 

* AT 630 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LYNDON...OR

  NEAR MORRISON...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

 

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

 

  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE 

           TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

  STERLING...ROCK FALLS...MORRISON...PROPHETSTOWN...ERIE...

  GARDEN PLAIN...TAMPICO...LYNDON...DEER GROVE...EMERSON...FENTON...

  ROUND GROVE...AGNEW...DOUGLAS PARK...LEON CORNERS...

  YEOWARD ADDITION...UNIONVILLE...SPRING HILL...

  GRIMES ADDITION AND PROPHETSTOWN STATE RECREATION AREA.

 

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 88 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 14 AND 44.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A

BUILDING.

 

&&

 

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL

AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS.

 

LAT...LON 4158 8967 4158 8986 4162 9016 4163 9016

      4164 9017 4165 9016 4165 9017 4182 9017

      4184 8963 4159 8963

TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 274DEG 23KT 4175 8999 

 

HAIL...1.00IN

WIND...60MPH

 

$$

 

ERVIN
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I'm wondering if all of these cells are elevated. The bases I've seen in pics look rather stable and it's always a question when we're dealing with a warm frontal setup. 

 

 

One of the AFDs mentioned things would start elevated before progressing into a surface-based threat.

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oh boy

 
016
WUUS53 KLOT 222334
SVRLOT
ILC103-230015-
/O.NEW.KLOT.SV.W.0028.160622T2333Z-160623T0015Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
633 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN LEE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 633 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DIXON...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO
MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS...AND OUTBUILDINGS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DIXON...WALTON...FRANKLIN GROVE AND NELSON.

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATE...
I-88 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 49 AND 61.

THIS INCLUDES... SAUK VALLEY COLLEGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMAIN ALERT FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO! TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP QUICKLY
FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU SPOT A TORNADO GO AT ONCE INTO THE
BASEMENT OR SMALL CENTRAL ROOM IN A STURDY STRUCTURE.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

LAT...LON 4188 8963 4190 8962 4188 8928 4169 8940
4181 8963
TIME...MOT...LOC 2333Z 287DEG 19KT 4184 8958

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...70MPH

$
 
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NWS Chicago thinking tornadoes start dropping further East

 

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
638 PM CDT

Storms are showing a quick upward progression early this evening
across northwest/north central Illinois and expect that trend to
continue. Mode has already appeared supercellular as storms ride a
sharp wind shift boundary that is becoming the dominant warm
front from near Dixon to the far southwest Chicago metro at
present. Given the growth of the storms, it is likely they are
becoming rooted lower and a surface-based threat may develop. In
the next hour, just based on radar trends, one of two of the
storms across Lee and Whiteside Counties may become a more
dominant supercell with a tornado threat. Environmental
parameters and the rate they are changing are at the level of
concern for a significant tornado threat along this corridor of
Lee County into northern LaSalle County and southern DeKalb
County.

Given the amount of storms that have already fired, it is possible
multi-cell clusters may try to develop somewhat quickly. That
said, the tornado threat will remain further east given an
increasing low-level jet...strong helicity...and high dew point
air keeping low-level CAPE present as well as low LCLs.

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
645 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

ILC195-230030-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0034.000000T0000Z-160623T0030Z/
WHITESIDE IL-
645 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT
FOR WHITESIDE COUNTY...

AT 643 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LYNDON...OR 7
MILES SOUTHEAST OF MORRISON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM IS
ROTATING SLOWLY AND COULD POSE A TORNADO THREAT IF IT
STRENGTHENS.


SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STERLING...ROCK FALLS...MORRISON...PROPHETSTOWN...ERIE...
GARDEN PLAIN...TAMPICO...LYNDON...DEER GROVE...EMERSON...FENTON...
ROUND GROVE...AGNEW...DOUGLAS PARK...LEON CORNERS...
YEOWARD ADDITION...UNIONVILLE...SPRING HILL...
GRIMES ADDITION AND PROPHETSTOWN STATE RECREATION AREA.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 88 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 14 AND 44.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS.

LAT...LON 4158 8967 4158 8986 4162 9016 4163 9016
4164 9017 4165 9016 4165 9017 4182 9017
4184 8963 4159 8963
TIME...MOT...LOC 2343Z 278DEG 25KT 4173 8985

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$

ERVIN

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