andyhb Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Given the approach of steep mid level lapse rates with the EML plume from the west and looking at the dewpoints north of the warm front, I definitely think there will be a zone of instability/surface-based parcels north of the front that could expand the tornado risk given the strong vorticity available on the cool side of the boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 From NWS LOT Twitter: "hard to say for sure if lake breeze will be pushed offshore by this evening or not" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Sitting in Rochelle now and will probably launch a wx balloon around 20z or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 From the amount of shear building up right now in Illinois wouldn't be surprised to see a mesoscale discussion soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 From NWS LOT Twitter: "hard to say for sure if lake breeze will be pushed offshore by this evening or not" imo, the problem is the surface low track. If it would track farther north, then there would be a better chance of flipping the winds or at least reducing the fetch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Off topic but I can tell the low pressure is near me in Des Moines. Minor headache all morning and my left shoulder has been bothering me. Usually only kicks in for stronger LP's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 imo, the problem is the surface low track. If it would track farther north, then there would be a better chance of flipping the winds or at least reducing the fetch. This^ I don't see how the north lakeshore doesn't flip. Either way, it's not that important, definitely looks like many heavily populated areas are going to be under the gun regardless I see hooks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 This^ I don't see how the north lakeshore doesn't flip. Either way, it's not that important, definitely looks like many heavily populated areas are going to be under the gun regardless I see hooks The 2 western streaks are definitely in or close enough to the surface based instability axis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 From the amount of shear building up right now in Illinois wouldn't be surprised to see a mesoscale discussion soon. Shear has nothing really to do with an MCD or not. The biggest defining factor is whether initiation is close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Actually more towards 21z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zestylabs Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Sitting in Rochelle now and will probably launch a wx balloon around 20z or so. In Freeport myself... got no balloons though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 The 2 western streaks are definitely in or close enough to the surface based instability axis HRRRMW_con_uphlysw_010.png Definitely going to have a tornado with that southwestern most cell, just gotta hope the wf can stay far enough south to avoid the densely populated burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 In Freeport myself... got no balloons though lol. I read that quickly... kinda like "got no balloons up in here dawg, you spot me one?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Definitely going to have a tornado with that southwestern most cell, just gotta hope the wf can stay far enough south to avoid the densely populated burbs Agreed, a populated suburb or the metro getting hit would be extremely dangerous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zestylabs Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 clearing nicely in freeport right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 15z SREF sigtor ingredients popped a 90 south of I-80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Plainfield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Definitely going to have a tornado with that southwestern most cell, just gotta hope the wf can stay far enough south to avoid the densely populated burbs Agree hopefully staying south. The cell above it, the hook looking one is right IMBY. My gut feeling this afternoon has been growing stronger this area/southern dupage being primed as the warm front just might be knocking on the door close enough, with the lake backing off just enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 15z SREF sigtor ingredients popped a 90 south of I-80. Wow I'm not sure if I've seen that before... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Louieloy102 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 For everyone wanting to see the image: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Wow I'm not sure if I've seen that before... Only other times I've seen it are 4/27 and 4/28 in 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Wow I'm not sure if I've seen that before... It's happened on occasion since they changed the parameters to make it easier, but it's not that common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Any chance of SPC going high risk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zestylabs Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 The 2000 Day1 will be interesting. I think confidence is growing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 15z SREF sigtor ingredients popped a 90 south of I-80. A little later over my local too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 The storms still hanging on/developing over Northeast IL may be enough to keep the WF out of Chicago Metro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 For everyone wanting to see the image: Wow, that's impressive. HRRR wants to pop something right in that area as well. Scary... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 The storms still hanging on/developing over Northeast IL may be enough to keep the WF out of Chicago Metro? metro area, naso much, city proper, i think so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 VADs at DVN and ILX are already pretty impressive, without the LLJ cranking yet. Good turning in the lowest 10KFT. Winds are still relatively weak below 5KFT, around 10-20kts, but that'll change in the coming hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 A little later over my local too.What does the 90 mean lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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