JasonOH Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Have to wonder if the SPC isn't considering/hedging towards a possible upgrade to high risk across Northeastern Illinois and parts of Northwestern and Northern/Central Indiana. That's exactly what I was thinking looking at the latest update for the wind probs. We will see in a couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Louieloy102 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Have to wonder if the SPC isn't considering/hedging towards a possible upgrade to high risk across Northeastern Illinois and parts of Northwestern and Northern/Central Indiana. Definitely would be a nowcast situation based on the clearing/warm front situation over the next 3/4 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Louieloy102 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 What time is that at? Sun trying to come out here now. 7-8PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 agree a high risk is possible once mesoscale details become 100% clear. sure is a lot of evidence that the warm front will blast north into chicagoland this afternoon, with all CAMs producing supercells in the area. there may be a corridor north of the true warm front and south of a pseudo-warm front/lake breeze boundary with the lower LCLs and SE winds that can still produce surface-based storms. need sun for a few hours to get temps into the lower 80s with dews in the lower 70s. i think 2" or larger hail is a sure bet for chicago proper, just need to see how the boundaries set up this evening. keep in mind discrete supercells often manipulate the nearby environment/wind field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 agree a high risk is possible once mesoscale details become 100% clear. sure is a lot of evidence that the warm front will blast north into chicagoland this afternoon, with all CAMs producing supercells in the area. there may be a corridor north of the true warm front and south of a pseudo-warm front/lake breeze boundary with the lower LCLs and SE winds that can still produce surface-based storms. need sun for a few hours to get temps into the lower 80s with dews in the lower 70s. i think 2" or larger hail is a sure bet for chicago proper, just need to see how the boundaries set up this evening. keep in mind discrete supercells often manipulate the nearby environment/wind field. Another thing to factor in as well with the limited time for heating, temperatures won't be able to blast to 85-93 keeping those LCLs very low over a decently large area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Kind of a no brainer... tornado watches. Could eventually see a transition to severe thunderstorm watches late/farther east but I wouldn't be shocked if that didn't happen. agreed. tornado watches at the start, but if the derecho threat materializes like we all here think it should, then the 2nd subsequent watches will be Severe thunderstorm, potentially PDS variety depending on how nasty the potential derecho gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL 1152 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 UPDATE 1145 AM CDT A BATCH OF MAINLY JUST SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING OVER THE AREA. A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTHWEST HAS PUSHED THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD WELL DOWNSTATE ILLINOIS. HOWEVER, RECENT OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA AND MISSOURI INDICATE THAT GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS INDICATIVE OF BETTER MIXING OF THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT HAVE DEVELOPED. THIS IS HELPING DRIVE THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE NORTHWARD TO OUR WEST. THUS IT STILL APPEARS THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE I-80 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS WILL BE A PARTICULAR FOCUS FOR ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER. DESPITE CURRENT CLOUD COVER AND SOME RAIN OVER THE AREA, CONDITIONS WILL BE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE LATER THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (CORRIDOR OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES) WILL ADVECT IN AS THE SURFACE WARMS AND MOISTENS TO THE SOUTH OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW RENEWED DEVELOPMENT AFTER 4-5 PM THIS AFTERNOON, LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF THE TRIPLE POINT MOST FAVORED OVER NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS/FAR SOUTHWESTERN WI. THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY MANY OF THE CAMS. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE FORM OF SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING SUPERCELLS INITIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG TURNING MID-LEVEL FLOW. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE ALL SEVERE HAZARDS, INCLUDING STRONG TORNADOES GIVEN THE ENHANCED HELICITY VALUES IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION, FORECAST BUNKERS SUPERCELL STORM MOTION IS ORIENTED ALONG THIS WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WHICH INDICATES A MAXIMUM RESIDENCE TIME OF ANY SUPERCELLS IF THEY WERE TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. WHERE EXACTLY THIS FRONT WILL BE...THAT IS JUST HOW FAR NORTH...CONTINUES TO BE ASSESSED...BUT THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IN OUR CWA WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THESE STORMS SHOULD THEN BUILD UPSCALE INTO WIND-PRODUCING CONGEALED SEGMENTS OR LEWPS AS IT MOVES OVER THE CHICAGO AREA AND INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. THIS WILL MAKE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS, POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH, A THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER, TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THAT FAR EAST ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THESE STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND THIS MAY ULTIMATELY LIMIT THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING MUCH OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL THIS MORNING STAYED WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL RATES, AND THEM POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE URBAN AREAS OF CHICAGO, WE FELT IT PRUDENT TO HOLD ONTO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. KJB/MTF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Another thing to factor in as well with the limited time for heating, temperatures won't be able to blast to 85-93 keeping those LCLs very low over a decently large area. exactly...that's what i was trying to hint at. looking like winds in northeast illinois will stay more s to ssw until that bubble high over central illinois gets out of the way. very strong warm advection under way to its west, as is made evident by 20-30kt se winds over eastern iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexanderhall Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Yep, LOT's tone has definitely changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Yeah moderate was expanded south by quite a few counties. Round 1 storms are done, and actually getting peaks of sunshine, ended with 1.76". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Should start to see temps rapidly increase, along with humidity. Western Illinois already in the mid 80s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc3395 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Another thing to factor in as well with the limited time for heating, temperatures won't be able to blast to 85-93 keeping those LCLs very low over a decently large area. Of course... This goes two ways.. It can also up the inhibition some, it all depends on your overall temperature profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Yeah moderate was expanded south by quite a few counties. Round 1 storms are done, and actually getting peaks of sunshine, ended with 1.76". Sun peaking out here just south of Midway Airport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Of course... This goes two ways.. It can also up the inhibition some, it all depends on your overall temperature profile. True but expectations of dew points around 75 is looking pretty likely, that will be enough to overcome inhibition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 that's rare for him. either he really doesn't like something and is worried it may not be as bad as advertised, or he's more worried than he usually is about the vulnerability and is choosing to play this one as it comes. one other possibility, he's seeing all types of meso-solutions and doesn't want to confuse viewers with the run by run thing. Doubling back on this. WGN's RPM Model, which was just shown on the 12:30pm update, had storms covering the entire Chicagoland area north to south and moving SE...starting to bow out around 8pm. This is the first real model detail I have seen regarding the coverage of storms from the WGN/Skilling team. Calling for large hail, 80mph+ winds. No big mention of tornadoes yet but Demetrius Ivory (local met) is very conservative with his wording. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 still liking RFD to JOT for a strong tornadic super cell not all that concerned about the city proper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 LOT AFD just posted; Mentions they believe greatest severe risk is a bit further south along a Rockford - Joliet - Valpo line.That's an interesting line. RFD -> JOT -> VALPO.I would trim the JOT buldge, and just connect the line from RFD to VALPO. But I'm being too technical here lol. I live in western suburbs/Dupage, along i88 about 15mins east of COD in Oak Brook. And I noticed many time where the lake influence reaches out here, but many times it isn't strong enough too. We'll see, but it's very close. Meant to post this earlier, but I passed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Current state of affairs reveals a pretty large area of backed surface winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Clearing out rapidly, I really think the WF is going to get further north then some think. That's just my noob eyes though, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 IWXs new AFD provides nothing new or there thinking .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday) Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Jun 22 2016 As suspected yda overnight convn and swwd displacement of composite outflw/wmfnt keeping precip at bay acrs the CWA this aftn. Decaying upstream stratiform ovr ne IL may hold on long enough to bring a sprinkle/lt shra to wrn areas yet this aftn hwvr chcs appear minimal. Primary focus conts to side w/sewd apch tonight of potent nrn stream sw trough ovr ne ND this aftn. Sfc reflection back west ovr ern NE will shift ewd into wrn IN late tonight. Ramping ll waa will aide in newd mix of wmfnt twd the highway 24 corridor w/commensurate greatest risk for severe storms btwn 02-07Z generally swwd of a ksbn- kaoh line. Hwvr most concerning is overlap of extreme shear and mod cape which point to an enhanced tornado risk alg and sw of the highway 30 ovr wrn zones mid-lt evening. In addn...nw-se oriented fntl zone in tandem w/protracted window of mid lvl forcing and considerable ll mstr flux ewd of sfc cyclone suggest some substantial rainfall psbl overnight. Hwvr contd dry antecedent conds and mixed highres signals on where heaviest rainfall may fall lends no confidence in delineating a potential flood watch and will defer to oncoming shift. Otrws besides a lingering shra/isold storm Thu am...general post fntl drying xpcd to envelope CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Clearing out rapidly, I really think the WF is going to get further north then some think. That's just my noob eyes though, lol. I hope you'll be around this evening, SmokeEater. I always appreciate your EMS updates as well as images. I think they will be especially needed this evening in highly populated areas, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Louieloy102 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Lots of clearing overhead, snapped a quick pic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 I hope you'll be around this evening, SmokeEater. I always appreciate your EMS updates as well as images. I think they will be especially needed this evening in highly populated areas, unfortunately.Yes sir, be done work hopefully by 330 eastern at the latest, and not a thing to do tonight unless my pager goes off other then track what's out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Lots of clearing overhead, snapped a quick pic. yep same thing a couple houses down the street haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Small showers continue to develop and track along a galena to Joliet line. I would expect this area to be prime for tor later this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Sunshine on and off started. Lower level clouds still racing up from the south . Higher deck clouds from the northwest clearing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Here's a loop of the HRRR. You can see how the warm front struggles to get through the lakeside area around Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Palos Heights IL clearing out. Dew of 66 Sent from my XT1526 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Interesting the increase in shear in NW IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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