Jim Martin Posted June 20, 2016 Author Share Posted June 20, 2016 MNC001-035-200045- /O.CON.KDLH.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-160620T0045Z/ AITKIN MN-CROW WING MN- 715 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT FOR WEST CENTRAL AITKIN AND EAST CENTRAL CROW WING COUNTIES... AT 714 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER DEERWOOD...OR 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF MILLE LACS LAKE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND GRAPEFRUIT SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD. EARLIER...THIS STORM PRODUCED A TORNADO ACCORDING TO EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... AITKIN AROUND 725 PM CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 706 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DULUTH MN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA... * UNTIL 745 PM CDT * AT 706 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 9 MILES NORTH OF FLOODWOOD...OR 23 MILES SOUTH OF HIBBING...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES... BUSINESSES...AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... COTTON...TOIVOLA...MEADOWLANDS...CANYON...ELMER...KELSEY...PROSIT... NICHOLS LAKE...PAYNE AND ISLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 FD enroute to somewhere in Crow Wing County for trees on a house, couple and infant crushed on a couch inside the house, they are breathing and talking at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 Major damage in multiple areas in the county, FD talking about houses demolished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 People now reported trapped in multiple places ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT FOR WEST CENTRAL AITKIN AND EAST CENTRAL CROW WING COUNTIES... AT 733 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 10 MILES EAST OF AITKIN...OR 16 MILES NORTHEAST OF MILLE LACS LAKE...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND GRAPEFRUIT SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED PEOPLE TRAPPED IN THEIR HOMES IN CROSBY...AND ALSO TRAPPED IN A MOBILE HOME IN DEERWOOD. FUNNEL CLOUDS AND TORNADOES HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS STORM. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL AITKIN AND EAST CENTRAL CROW WING COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS: RIPPLE LAKE...GLEN...HASSMAN...CEDAR LAKE... GLORY...ROSSBURG...GUN LAKE...WALDECK...FARM ISLAND LAKE AND KIMBERLY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TORNADOES ARE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW. && LAT...LON 4636 9384 4664 9386 4671 9347 4637 9346 TIME...MOT...LOC 0033Z 263DEG 47KT 4651 9349 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED HAIL...4.00IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted June 20, 2016 Author Share Posted June 20, 2016 This should of been a tornado watch from the outset... now getting tornado warned storms west of Minneapolis, Minnesota... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 This should of been a tornado watch from the outset... now getting tornado warned storms west of Minneapolis, Minnesota... At face value, the profiles out there aren't the greatest for a ton of tornado development with the somewhat veered flow and the unimpressive low-level CAPE values. The main thing that's helping the tornado threat is the fact that the line is taking longer than expected to organize and congeal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 4 tor warned cells w/nw of the Twin Cities at present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted June 20, 2016 Author Share Posted June 20, 2016 At face value, the profiles out there aren't the greatest for a ton of tornado development with the somewhat veered flow and the unimpressive low-level CAPE values. The main thing that's helping the tornado threat is the fact that the line is taking longer than expected to organize and congeal. Ah. Sometimes, like tonight, the weather can all throw us a curveball or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 Tops from the storms out west of the TC are blowing off and moving in. Making it quite dark at the moment. The Cities are in the Enhanced risk area per the latest update. Latest HRRR run has the broken line now moving thru through EC MN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 The 00z NAM & especially GFS look pretty explosive for Wednesday afternoon & evening along the warm front. PDS TOR soundings everywhere off the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 Yeah, the 0Z takes awhile to get the MCS here but if it shows up about 06Z it will be in an explosive environment. This thing could with some of the soundings this morning (if they verify) end up a potential derecho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 Not to burst your bubble Hillsdale but being modeled near the northern edge at this distance is often not a great spot to be. The overall potential is still looking pretty nice on the latest runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 Yeah, the 0Z takes awhile to get the MCS here but if it shows up about 06Z it will be in an explosive environment. This thing could with some of the soundings this morning (if they verify) end up a potential derecho Yeah lots of possibilities. The NAM shows a MCS moving through in the morning, with rapid destabilization behind it. I've seen a few mets saying there could be possibly 2 MCSs/derecho type events Wednesday. One in the late morning in IL, moving E, and then supercells congealing into some type of MCS again in the evening. Definitely something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 Not to burst your bubble Hillsdale but being modeled near the northern edge at this distance is often not a great spot to be. The overall potential is still looking pretty nice on the latest runs. Northern edge is still by Lansing but agreed, only will really be super invested by Tuesday if it hasn't shifted South Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 Not to burst your bubble Hillsdale but being modeled near the northern edge at this distance is often not a great spot to be. The overall potential is still looking pretty nice on the latest runs. I will say this though, the main potential area has been nosing north run to run. Tomorrow will be a very crucial day, if the front doesn't go very far south, the potential area may shift north some. Tomorrow really doesn't look spectacular so the push by the front may not be too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0217 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL IA ACROSS NRN IL...INDIANA...AND WRN OH... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN MN/IA SEWD TOWARD THE OH RIVER... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN MN SEWD TO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND...A FEW TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS A LARGE AREA FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT ON WEDNESDAY. ...SYNOPSIS... A BROAD BELT OF STRONG NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE NRN STATES...WITH MAIN LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NERN STATES AND UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SRN PLAINS. WITHIN THIS NWLY FLOW REGIME WILL BE MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WHICH ARE LIKELY TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SEWD TOWARD THE OH VALLEY. A SFC LOW WILL MOVE FROM NEBRASKA WED MORNING INTO IA BY 00Z...WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND TOWARD SRN LAKE MICHIGAN. AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...WITH STRONG WIND FIELDS POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A CORRIDOR OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS...THE CENTROID OF WHICH MAY SHIFT IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS PREDICTABILITY CHANGES. ...UPPER MS VALLEY SEWD TOWARD THE OH VALLEY... MODELS SHOW A COMPLEX OF STORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH HAIL AND WIND...ONGOING NEAR THE WARM FRONT ROUGHLY FROM IA INTO SRN WI AND NRN IL WED MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION. COINCIDENT WITH THESE STORMS IS ALSO A SMALL MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX/JETLET. AS SUCH...THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM COULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE...WITH MUCAPE TO AROUND 3000 J/KG LIKELY...WITH ANOTHER SPEED MAX ALOFT POSSIBLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NW FLOW. RENEWED DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED NEAR THE SFC LOW OVER IA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY TRACK ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLY CONVECTION. THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT AS WELL AS IMPRESSIVE 850 MB JET...RESULTING IN VERY STRONG MEAN WIND SPEEDS...ALL POINT TOWARD A POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT IN AND CLOSE TO THE ENHANCED RISK AREA. INITIALLY...SUPERCELLS MAY BE PRESENT PRIOR TO STORM MERGERS...WITH TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL. ..JEWELL.. 06/20/2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 Well Wednesday should be a fun day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 The overall potential is still looking pretty nice on the latest runs. I'm having DVN withdrawal It's a really nice MCS signal this far in advance. GFS RH and 200 mb divergence progs are definitely on board with the two MCS look (stronger round 2 than the early stuff in IA Wednesday morning). I'm really impressed with the modeled theta-e lapse rates overnight Wednesday. Typically you see a nice diurnal trend with those (steeper during the day, less so at night). GFS is most robust, but all models have it, where somewhere in the IL/IN/OH corridor those lapse rates stay closer to 5-7 C/km overnight (greater than 4 is more favorable for severe weather). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 Well if there weren't enough negatives for today's severe weather potential, convective debris decided to just pile it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 I 80 south is going to get rolled wednesday going to be hard watching this one go down while we're stuck in the cold stratiform rains on the northside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 I 80 south is going to get rolled wednesday going to be hard watching this one go down while we're stuck in the cold stratiform rains on the northside While this is probably right, I do have to agree With Stebo's point that if tomorrow's threat isn't too high(which it doesnt look to be), the warm front should be able to retreat further north Wednesday. Just an optimistic idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 It's the Tuesday night/Wednesday morning MCS(s) that will prevent the warm front from blasting north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 Hmmm, a line of t'storms are already starting to develop near Lake Michigan and there's even a warning out. Models were not picking up on this at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 lol @ the NAM jumping the front north still ends up being kind of a lame solution IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 The 12Z NAM got the higher instability almost 2 more counties north, guess we will see if the GFS follows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 Capping concerns but just south of LOT on the 4km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 Capping concerns but just south of LOT on the 4km NAM south of LOT.png lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 It's the Tuesday night/Wednesday morning MCS(s) that will prevent the warm front from blasting north.Yeah- but if there was no morning MCS, Wisco would probably be the main threat area. Lose-lose scenario for us as always Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 Decent cape #s, despite the cap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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