JasonOH Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 That lead cell it models would be very worrying, especially with it being followed by possibly sig. sev. winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Some images to go along Smack imby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 That lead cell it models would be very worrying, especially with it being followed by possibly sig. sev. winds. And direct projectory into the heart of Chicago metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 And here we go, battle of the HRRR and the HRRRx. I feel that the HRRRx will do better, but I don't think a TV met would show an experimental model on air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 15Z HRRR very BAD for Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Louieloy102 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 And here we go, battle of the HRRR and the HRRRx. I feel that the HRRRx will do better, but I don't think a TV met would show an experimental model on air. Good outbreak to test out if the experimental model is better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 And here we go, battle of the HRRR and the HRRRx. I feel that the HRRRx will do better, but I don't think a TV met would show an experimental model on air. well, this would be Tom Skilling's market, Chicago, that's affected. If anyone would show any type of experimental models in a situation like this in a manner that's presentable, it would be him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Good outbreak to test out if the experimental model is better. It's done excellent with dry lines, let's see if it can nail a complicated warm front setup. I'll be watching Skilling's stream later, he is excellent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 15Z HRRR very BAD for Chicago That looks to be north of the warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 That looks to be north of the warm front. It is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 That looks to be north of the warm front. Right on it maybe moving SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 well, this would be Tom Skilling's market, Chicago, that's affected. If anyone would show any type of experimental models in a situation like this in a manner that's presentable, it would be him. I believe Tom started yesterday at 12pm and I caught him again at 10pm. He has been very reluctant to show any models regarding this evening it seems. He was all over the earlier stuff missing to the south and had it crossing through central Illinois but as a viewer he has seemed to be very gun shy on making any call regarding this evening's activity...Mostly he has made mention as to this evening's potential and nothing more detailed as of yet. The HRRR posted above showing the 7:30pm time is the first out of his office that I've seen show anything detailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Louieloy102 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 SPC update virtually unchanged. Extended south a bit (and a little north in SW Wisconsin) and a bit further east into Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bl5585 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 SPC update virtually unchanged Are you sure about that? It seems that the moderate expanded further south and the 10% hatched tornado makes it into NWI now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 I believe Tom started yesterday at 12pm and I caught him again at 10pm. He has been very reluctant to show any models regarding this evening it seems. He was all over the earlier stuff missing to the south and had it crossing through central Illinois but as a viewer he has seemed to be very gun shy on making any call regarding this evening's activity...Mostly he has made mention as to this evening's potential and nothing more detailed as of yet. The HRRR posted above showing the 7:30pm time is the first out of his office that I've seen show anything detailed. that's rare for him. either he really doesn't like something and is worried it may not be as bad as advertised, or he's more worried than he usually is about the vulnerability and is choosing to play this one as it comes. one other possibility, he's seeing all types of meso-solutions and doesn't want to confuse viewers with the run by run thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Yeah what janetjanet posted is not that far north of the warm front/SB instability axis. That's in the too close for comfort category and I've heard a general rule that within about 30 miles north of a warm front is an area to watch for possible surface based storms. One of the issues for Chicago at this point seems to be the surface low track. It looks like it has nudged south to the point where the front really can't clear the area, especially near the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zestylabs Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 SPC "CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY AND SIGNIFICANTLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR /50-70 KT EFFECTIVE/ NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIALHEATING-INFLUENCED WARM FRONT WILL SUPPORT INITIAL SUPERCELLSCAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BESIGNIFICANT /EF2+/. THIS INITIAL SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLYAPPEARS MOST PROBABLE ACROSS NORTHERN IL/FAR EASTERN IA AND POSSIBLYADJACENT EXTREME SOUTHERN WI BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON NEAR/JUST AHEADOF THE SURFACE LOW AND NEARBY WARM FRONT.THESE STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO A FAST-MOVINGQUASI-LINEAR MCS...POTENTIALLY WITH A DERECHO-RELATED SIGNIFICANTSWATH OF WIND DAMAGE EVOLVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING/AND POTENTIALLY CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT/. THE DAMAGING WINDPOTENTIAL MAY REACH THE OH RIVER/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Yeah everything is a little larger on the 1630z update. Slight goes all the way to Minnesota now. Enhanced and moderate got bigger as well. Didn't trim the north side, actually added a little more to the north side of the enhanced in Michigan and expanded further south for both as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 SPC update virtually unchanged. Extended south a bit (and a little north in SW Wisconsin) and a bit further east into Ohio. Hatches tornado increased SE, and hatched hail increased in coverage and percentage, along with moderate shifting slightly NE. Definitely some changes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Louieloy102 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Are you sure about that? It seems that the moderate expanded further south and the 10% hatched tornado makes it into NWI now. Added a quick edit right before you posted that, sorry! For the Chicago metro, unchanged. For Indiana/Ohio/Central Illinois interests, the moderate was definitely expanded. Edit: also see they introduced a 30% hatched hail risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc3395 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Yeah what janetjanet posted is not that far north of the warm front/SB instability axis. That's in the too close for comfort category and I've heard a general rule that within about 30 miles north of a warm front is an area to watch for possible surface based storms. One of the issues for Chicago at this point seems to be the surface low track. It looks like it has nudged south to the point where the front really can't clear the area, especially near the lake. For clarification... You can (and often do) have surface based supercells/storms on the cool side of any boundary, the air mass characteristics will determine the extent of the buoyant air on the cool side.. That modeled cell in question looks to be on the very edge of the sfc based instability gradient for sure at a glance, but certainly possible it is still sfc based. Any cell near the warm front will be impressive if it is somewhat discrete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 one other thing of note here on the 1630 update. the Twin Cities/Rochester/Lacrosse area is back into the mix with a slight risk after being downgraded at the 1300 for the trailer disturbance to the main event from Rockford and Chicago to Cincy/Indy/CMH. we may see some interesting things this evening as well, just not quite as noteworthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 I know there's the lake breeze/front to consider, but I would absolutely not rule out some significant severe (hail/tornado) very close to Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 I know there's the lake breeze/front to consider, but I would absolutely not rule out some significant severe (hail/tornado) very close to Chicago. Agreed and if something forms and rides that boundary SE, it could be producing for a while. The HRRR's run is barely elevated, shift that track south 15 miles and it rides the warm front the whole way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Although they left the 10% tornado probs all the way to the lake, they have the hatched area curling around the southern end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Any bets on the kinds of watches today? Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Have to wonder if the SPC isn't considering/hedging towards a possible upgrade to high risk across Northeastern Illinois and parts of Northwestern and Northern/Central Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Some images to go along What time is that at? Sun trying to come out here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Any bets on the kinds of watches today? Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk Kind of a no brainer... tornado watches. Could eventually see a transition to severe thunderstorm watches late/farther east but I wouldn't be shocked if that didn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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