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6/19-6/23 Severe Weather Risk


Jim Martin

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Any thoughts on whether we get a PDS Severe or regular Tor Watch for later today?

I would probably lean more towards PDS severe as that should be the feature mode.

 

But maybe the first box in eastern IA/ southwest WI/ Northwest IL will be Tornado just because the initial cells would have the highest tornado risk, then with subsequent watches in eastern IL/Southeast WI/ IN / western OH being PDS severe just because the main storm mode by then will be high straight-line winds.

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I would probably lean more towards PDS severe as that should be the feature mode.

 

But maybe the first box in eastern IA/ southwest WI/ Northwest IL will be Tornado just because the initial cells would have the highest tornado risk, then with subsequent watches in eastern IL/Southeast WI/ IN / western OH being PDS severe just because the main storm mode by then will be high straight-line winds.

Do you think that since there are less convection and debris in N IL as previously thought, the WF boundary may reach the Chicago area? Or will it stay in the south/far south suburbs

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Do you think that since there are less convection and debris in N IL as previously thought, the WF boundary may reach the Chicago area? Or will it stay in the south/far south suburbs

probably southern/western Suburbs (Dupage/Romeoville/Valpo), but not much further north and east given the easterly/northeasterly lake breeze that will probably synoptically develop. but we will see as time gets closer.

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