thewxmann Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Not that it really matters, but a Chicago-area met. pointed this out to me - part of the tornado risk map includes a 5% hatched area, which technically shouldn't be a thing It's been done a few times before even without 10%, nothing unusual about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Just south of DVN is getting hit hard right now Sent from my iPhone 6s using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Just west of Peoria is pound town. Holy smokes. Looks like a new watch possible for W. central Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Going to lucky to even see garden variety showere today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Going to lucky to even see garden variety showere today. lol, you are practically riding the axis of the mod risk area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 lol, you are practically riding the axis of the mod risk area... Check out the 6/12/13 thread...this will be the same thing imby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Check out the 6/12/13 thread...this will be the same thing imby wow, crazy similar threat area. Honestly I don't recall anything spectacular here either for that one. oops had the wrong graphic...but still very similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Just catching up with the overnight guidance, boy did this thing pull a 2016 IMBY. Should have trusted my gut earlier in this thread instead of getting pulled in by the D2 moderate. I'd put money on the city being dropped to enhanced/slight with the next update. Surface WF quite far away and unlikely to make any real progress for quite some time. We'll probably still see a respectable tornado or two in the DVN CWA but the most widespread severe will be the MCS that runs down I74 and into IN later into the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Straight firehose right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Pretty quiet in here considering it's 'initiation day' for a widespread severe threat for the sub. Maybe everyone is resting up in anticipation of no sleep tonight ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Quality thunder right now on southern edge of rain shield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 I gotta say, I wasnt expecting the radar to look like this when I woke up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 I gotta say, I wasnt expecting the radar to look like this when I woke up... really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 really?Yeah.Edit: I mean the placement of the storms riding south east in Cent. IL, yes that's right. But the storms are now more like showers and there's a difinitive end of them in Central Iowa. Should be out by noon-1pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Yeah most of the modeling yesterday had stuff festering in the area until at least 16z-17z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 most of the modeling yesterday had stuff festering in the area until at least 16z-17zOh, I thought the models concensus was that the storms would be here all day with basically no break and mets were reporting anywhere from 2 to 4 rounds of storms (even though we knew they'd go south) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 The huge rain shield to my SW made for a beautiful sunrise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Oh, I thought the models concensus was that the storms would be here basically all day with basically no break and mets were reporting anywhere from 2 to 4 rounds of storms (even though we knew they'd go south) I think we're saying the same thing It's definitely a good thing that we aren't seeing a well defined MCS at this point over IA push hard right HRRR tried to smoke us on the last run but it has dews in the 60s here with onshore winds so it's a close call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 The big question over here was where would the heavy band of rain along the edge of the cap set up overnight. It ended up right over me. I did not get the max (5+"), but I'm sitting at about 3.70" with a bit more to come. There were a few small hail reports along the line early on, but it was mostly just heavy rain. This is the third straight June in which I've had a rain event of at least 3.7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 I think we're saying the same thing It's definitely a good thing that we aren't seeing a well defined MCS at this point over IA push hard right HRRR tried to smoke us on the last run but it has dews in the 60s here with onshore winds so it's a close call Yeah hahaha. Probably is good- Question tho: I thought earlier on people were saying there was going to be no lake influence? Is it because we are now predicted to be north of the wf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Also the rain in Iowa is HAULING out of there very quickly (about 55mph). Just a side note Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Yeah hahaha. Probably is good- Question tho: I thought earlier on people were saying there was going to be no lake influence? Is it because we are now predicted to be north of the wf? I don't see how we (me and you, not necessarily LOT in general) avoid some onshore flow later HRRR flips onshore around 23z, pushing that back an hour or two would be ideal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 I don't see how we (me and you, not necessarily LOT in general) avoid some onshore flow laterTrue but hopefully if the wf gets far up enough and things keep going right, we will see minimal onshore flow which won't completely kill anything right as it interects (yay for optimism haha). Edit: Yeah 7pm is a little early for an ideal situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Latest outlook now mentions possible Derecho after supercells grow upscale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Latest outlook now mentions possible Derecho after supercells grow upscale. Yep and they say "ONGOING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY SHIFT SEWD THIS MORNING...ALLOWING THE CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED WARM FRONT TO BEGIN TO MOVE NEWD IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SWLY LLJ. BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON THIS FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM A SFC LOW OVER ERN IA THROUGH EXTREME NRN IL INTO NCNTRL IND THEN SEWD THROUGH OH AND WV." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 The key issue seems to be when things will go linear and form that derecho. Current meso shows nearly 600 m2.s2. helicity for both 0-1 and 0-3 km over Iowa and that will move eastward as will the surface 1003 mb low. That level of helicity is quite concerning.and could serve to keep things discrete on its sw edge for a longer time than anticipated with tornadic cells. Hope I'm wrong about this. A derecho is bad enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 I don't see how we (me and you, not necessarily LOT in general) avoid some onshore flow later Dude you're like 4 blocks from the lake, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Sun is out, filtered, but still sun. Was not expecting this haha Edit: Breaks in the clouds now, can see a good amount of blue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salseneca Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 12z NAM doesnt look all that impressive across Ohio later this afternoon unless Im reading it wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 12z NAM doesnt look all that impressive across Ohio later this afternoon unless Im reading it wrong.I wouldn't put too much into the NAM this close to the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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