RCNYILWX Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Talk about a wildcard, he could go High and it wouldn't shock me. That said I thin a 45/30/10 all hatched is coming. Maybe 45 hail hatched back near QC.Complete wildcard, sometimes he's quite bullish then pulls a 4/9/15 d1 another time. Those numbers seem about right, and agree, would think out toward the QC has the best shot for MDT criteria for hail with the incredible shear and very steep mid level lapse rates nosing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Complete wildcard, sometimes he's quite bullish then pulls a 4/9/15 d1 another time. Those numbers seem about right, and agree, would think out toward the QC has the best shot for MDT criteria for hail with the incredible shear and very steep mid level lapse rates nosing in.This may seem like a stupid question, but why would they pull the moderate from Chicago now even though we really do not know for sure that Chicago is going to be a miss? (I know models point to that but we do still see outliers and there are still unknowns where it could go both ways) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Really not much new for me to add to my thoughts from earlier. Northwest corner of IL/extreme southwest WI/possibly 20 corridor between ALO and DBQ are still looking good for the early sup potential. Adjust that southward if necessary based on more than expected ongoing clouds/precip. Overall the biggest threat from the whole setup will likely be a widespread damaging wind threat downstream, particularly in northern IN into OH. However the tor potential from the large sups early on could be quite impressive. As others have mentioned, there will also be tor potential all night tomorrow night for areas further east as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 This may seem like a stupid question, but why would they pull the moderate from Chicago now even though we really do not know for sure that Chicago is going to be a miss? (I know models point to that but we do still see outliers and there are still unknowns where it could go both ways)There's enough consensus on the guidance that winds will stay onshore into northeast Illinois regardless of warm front position to support a southward shift. That would limit potential for surface based convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 curveball http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/00/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 BTW I know it's not worth much at this stage in the game, but the 00z GFS is really not very impressive at all for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 curveball http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/00/ In a area with cruddy reception, what's it show?Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 curveball http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/00/ Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Louieloy102 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Trimmed outlook, but nonetheless interesting. Looks more NW/SE oriented and trimmed moderate down to the border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Didn't take long to draw me back in. 00z HRRRx goes bow echo pretty much right away tomorrow...but its pretty vicious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 HRRR has a nasty derecho. Almost looks like it misses Chicago due south? Central Illinois and Indiana get smacked hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boettger64 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 HRRR has a nasty derecho. Almost looks like it misses Chicago due south? Central Illinois and Indiana get smacked hard.I'm right in the honey zone for that. Considering I cant chase due to work I'll take it over the other options. Sent from my SM-N920T using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 wow. They must see something we don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Louieloy102 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 In the outlook Broyles mentioned that he liked the WRF-NSSL4. Probably the reason that he expanded the moderate a bit westward. I don't understand the trimming of the moderate in north-central Illinois, but Broyles sees something that the forum disagrees on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 This part of the outlook has me wondering why the northern edge of the moderate is as far north as it is. MODEL SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE CAMS AND DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS SHOW DIFFERING SCENARIOS BUT ARE SUPPORTING THIS IDEA THAT A FAST-MOVING LINEAR MCS WILL TRACK ESEWD ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. I AM FAVORING A MORE EAST SOUTHEAST MCS TRACK MUCH LIKE THE WRF-NSSL4...NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS ALONG THE EXPECTED GRADIENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM NEAR DUBUQUE IA ACROSS SRN PARTS OF THE CHICAGO METRO TO BETWEEN SOUTH BEND AND INDIANAPOLIS IND TO NEAR COLUMBUS OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 That is the moderate I expected to see last night when this was the day 2. Not surprised by this at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 I definitely see a bigger focus on a wind threat per SPC earlier on rather than what I and many of us thought was going to be discrete throughout Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 I definitely see a bigger focus on a wind threat per SPC earlier on rather than what I and many of us thought was going to be discrete throughout Illinois. That always was a question mark and still is. I don't think full on discreet throughout Illinois was ever on the table, but the length of that window is still in question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 That always was a question mark and still is. I don't think full on discreet throughout Illinois was ever on the table, but the length of that window is still in question. I agree. Trying to figure out when the transition from discrete to linear takes place is often a challenge, especially without overwhelming signals in place. I get the argument for a fairly quick transition but I can't help but wonder if we maintain discrete/semi-discrete longer than some of these runs are suggesting. No two setups are exactly alike but thinking back on the aforementioned 6/22/15, that didn't really make the transition to linear mode until near the IL/IN border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 I agree. Trying to figure out when the transition from discrete to linear takes place is often a challenge, especially without overwhelming signals in place. I get the argument for a fairly quick transition but I can't help but wonder if we maintain discrete/semi-discrete longer than some of these runs are suggesting. No two setups are exactly alike but thinking back on the aforementioned 6/22/15, that didn't really make the transition to linear mode until near the IL/IN border. I see a noteworthy event either way as long as the atmosphere recovers. I know discreet sups are a bit more exciting, but the potential for damaging wind/QLCS tors is nothing to sneeze at with a setup like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Trimmed outlook, but nonetheless interesting. Looks more NW/SE oriented and trimmed moderate down to the border. That looks like a good placement of the moderate risk. Although not sure about SW MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexanderhall Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Not that it really matters, but a Chicago-area met. pointed this out to me - part of the tornado risk map includes a 5% hatched area, which technically shouldn't be a thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Not that it really matters, but a Chicago-area met. pointed this out to me - but part of the tornado risk map includes a 5% hatched area, which technically shouldn't be a thing One word: Broyles.Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 the PWO PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0120 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST, LOWER GREAT LAKES, AND OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... * LOCATIONS... NORTHERN AND CENTRAL INDIANA WESTERN OHIO NORTHERN ILLINOIS INCLUDING THE CHICAGO METRO AREA SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN NORTHEASTERN IOWA * HAZARDS... WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS, SOME HURRICANE FORCE A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES ISOLATED LARGE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE * SUMMARY... WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, WITH SOME GREATER THAN 75 MILES PER HOUR, ALONG WITH TORNADOES AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, NORTHERN ILLINOIS, SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN, NORTHERN TO CENTRAL INDIANA AND PARTS OF WESTERN OHIO. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY AFFECT THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REVIEW YOUR SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY PROCEDURES FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DANGEROUS WEATHER TODAY. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO, WEATHER.GOV, OR OTHER MEDIA FOR WATCHES AND WARNINGS. A WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY, IDEALLY IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. ..GLEASON/DIAL.. 06/22/2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 One word: Broyles. Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk I've seen other forecasters do something similar occasionally. Surely an accident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Over here it is just a bunch of rain. I ended up right in the narrow heavy band on the edge of the cap. I'm well over 2 inches and may end up with 3 or 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexanderhall Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 LOT AFD just posted; Mentions they believe greatest severe risk is a bit further south along a Rockford - Joliet - Valpo line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 I don't know if this is worth anything, but the 06Z HRRR really clears the area out to give a few hours of solid recovery. This run bumped the parameters up as well. I only mention this because it has a good handle on the current convection so it should be at least noted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND152 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016NDC045-047-051-220730-/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0079.000000T0000Z-160622T0730Z/LOGAN ND-LAMOURE ND-MCINTOSH ND-152 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 AM CDTFOR LOGAN...SOUTHWESTERN LAMOURE AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES...AT 151 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OFNAPOLEON...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.THIS THUNDERSTORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHERINCLUDING EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL...DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ANDTORNADOES. MOVE QUICKLY TO A SAFE SHELTER...SUCH AS AN INTERIOR ROOM...A BATHROOM OR CLOSET OR BASEMENT. TORNADO...POSSIBLEHAIL...1.00INWIND...70MPH Some wild ND action ongoing. Its got a wicked radar signature. Convection going hog wild elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 This part of the outlook has me wondering why the northern edge of the moderate is as far north as it is. continuity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.