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6/19-6/23 Severe Weather Risk


Jim Martin

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Talk about a wildcard, he could go High and it wouldn't shock me. That said I thin a 45/30/10 all hatched is coming. Maybe 45 hail hatched back near QC.

Complete wildcard, sometimes he's quite bullish then pulls a 4/9/15 d1 another time. Those numbers seem about right, and agree, would think out toward the QC has the best shot for MDT criteria for hail with the incredible shear and very steep mid level lapse rates nosing in.
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Complete wildcard, sometimes he's quite bullish then pulls a 4/9/15 d1 another time. Those numbers seem about right, and agree, would think out toward the QC has the best shot for MDT criteria for hail with the incredible shear and very steep mid level lapse rates nosing in.

This may seem like a stupid question, but why would they pull the moderate from Chicago now even though we really do not know for sure that Chicago is going to be a miss? (I know models point to that but we do still see outliers and there are still unknowns where it could go both ways)
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Really not much new for me to add to my thoughts from earlier.  Northwest corner of IL/extreme southwest WI/possibly 20 corridor between ALO and DBQ are still looking good for the early sup potential.  Adjust that southward if necessary based on more than expected ongoing clouds/precip.  Overall the biggest threat from the whole setup will likely be a widespread damaging wind threat downstream, particularly in northern IN into OH.  However the tor potential from the large sups early on could be quite impressive.  As others have mentioned, there will also be tor potential all night tomorrow night for areas further east as well.  

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This may seem like a stupid question, but why would they pull the moderate from Chicago now even though we really do not know for sure that Chicago is going to be a miss? (I know models point to that but we do still see outliers and there are still unknowns where it could go both ways)

There's enough consensus on the guidance that winds will stay onshore into northeast Illinois regardless of warm front position to support a southward shift. That would limit potential for surface based convection.
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This part of the outlook has me wondering why the northern edge of the moderate is as far north as it is.

 

 


MODEL SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE CAMS AND  DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS SHOW DIFFERING SCENARIOS BUT ARE SUPPORTING  THIS IDEA THAT A FAST-MOVING LINEAR MCS WILL TRACK ESEWD ACROSS THE  MODERATE RISK AREA. I AM FAVORING A MORE EAST SOUTHEAST MCS TRACK  MUCH LIKE THE WRF-NSSL4...NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS ALONG THE EXPECTED  GRADIENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM NEAR DUBUQUE IA ACROSS SRN  PARTS OF THE CHICAGO METRO TO BETWEEN SOUTH BEND AND INDIANAPOLIS  IND TO NEAR COLUMBUS OH.
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I definitely see a bigger focus on a wind threat per SPC earlier on rather than what I and many of us thought was going to be discrete throughout Illinois.

That always was a question mark and still is. I don't think full on discreet throughout Illinois was ever on the table, but the length of that window is still in question.

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That always was a question mark and still is. I don't think full on discreet throughout Illinois was ever on the table, but the length of that window is still in question.

 

 

I agree.  Trying to figure out when the transition from discrete to linear takes place is often a challenge, especially without overwhelming signals in place.  I get the argument for a fairly quick transition but I can't help but wonder if we maintain discrete/semi-discrete longer than some of these runs are suggesting.  No two setups are exactly alike but thinking back on the aforementioned 6/22/15, that didn't really make the transition to linear mode until near the IL/IN border.

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I agree.  Trying to figure out when the transition from discrete to linear takes place is often a challenge, especially without overwhelming signals in place.  I get the argument for a fairly quick transition but I can't help but wonder if we maintain discrete/semi-discrete longer than some of these runs are suggesting.  No two setups are exactly alike but thinking back on the aforementioned 6/22/15, that didn't really make the transition to linear mode until near the IL/IN border.

 

I see a noteworthy event either way as long as the atmosphere recovers. I know discreet sups are a bit more exciting, but the potential for damaging wind/QLCS tors is nothing to sneeze at with a setup like this. 

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Trimmed outlook, but nonetheless interesting. Looks more NW/SE oriented and trimmed moderate down to the border. 

 

That looks like a good placement of the moderate risk. Although not sure about SW MI.

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the PWO

 


PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  0120 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016    ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST,  LOWER GREAT LAKES, AND OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...    * LOCATIONS...    NORTHERN AND CENTRAL INDIANA    WESTERN OHIO    NORTHERN ILLINOIS INCLUDING THE CHICAGO METRO AREA    SOUTHERN WISCONSIN    SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN    NORTHEASTERN IOWA    * HAZARDS...    WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS, SOME HURRICANE FORCE    A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES    ISOLATED LARGE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE    * SUMMARY...    WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, WITH SOME GREATER THAN 75 MILES    PER HOUR, ALONG WITH TORNADOES AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ARE    EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NORTHEAST IOWA INTO    SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, NORTHERN ILLINOIS, SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN,    NORTHERN TO CENTRAL INDIANA AND PARTS OF WESTERN OHIO. A WIND    DAMAGE THREAT MAY AFFECT THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING    INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC DURING    THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.    PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...    REVIEW YOUR SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY PROCEDURES FOR THE POSSIBILITY  OF DANGEROUS WEATHER TODAY. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO,  WEATHER.GOV, OR OTHER MEDIA FOR WATCHES AND WARNINGS. A WATCH  MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS  OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS  ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY, IDEALLY IN AN   INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING.   

 
..GLEASON/DIAL.. 06/22/2016 

 

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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND152 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016NDC045-047-051-220730-/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0079.000000T0000Z-160622T0730Z/LOGAN ND-LAMOURE ND-MCINTOSH ND-152 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 AM CDTFOR LOGAN...SOUTHWESTERN LAMOURE AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES...AT 151 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OFNAPOLEON...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.THIS THUNDERSTORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHERINCLUDING EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL...DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ANDTORNADOES. MOVE QUICKLY TO A SAFE SHELTER...SUCH AS AN INTERIOR ROOM...A BATHROOM OR CLOSET OR BASEMENT.
TORNADO...POSSIBLEHAIL...1.00INWIND...70MPH

 

 
Some wild ND action ongoing. Its got a wicked radar signature. Convection going hog wild elsewhere.
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