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6/19-6/23 Severe Weather Risk


Jim Martin

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That seems legit, but how much can one rely on this? It'd be nice to have an idea at a quick glance instead of pulling up forecast reflectivity.

A lot of the UH swaths posted look like they're north of the warm front. Are they truly north of it, or riding the front and still drawing in the good air?

If the sounding is in an area of reflectivity, it will be contaminated and does not represent the environment. Storms north of the warm front will be elevated due to the geometry of the front. They can still have UH tracks since elevated storms can still rotate.

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Metro is unlikely. Development will still occur galena to Rockford to Rochelle back to DVN but then gradually trend SSE. The area will see some convection but the more severe and concerning stuff looks to be SW of the city.

FWIW some crazy cape values out in NE/IA currently.

It'll be interesting to see what the SPC does. 

Based on model trends, I'd see the moderate risk extending to just south of the metro and the enhanced extending to around Racine, but lots of people are acting like no storms will cross the IL/WI border.

 

Considering the moderate risk right now is from Madison to Milwaukee on the northern edge, there needs to be some trimming of that northern extent of the risk.

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I'm not even going to say anything. This storm is way too confusing seems like it's going to hit south of I80, but then it looks like it's going to chi the metro area. We'll have a very clear picture tomorrow in the am. iDontKnowWhatsGoingToHappen.jpeg

Exactly my thoughts right now.
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Wasn't following the runs throughout the day so don't know if it ever backed off but the 00z HRRRx is again hinting at a more northward placement of the boundary.

There's too many different placements. Honestly we won't know until tomorrow morning/aft.
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Wasn't following the runs throughout the day so don't know if it ever backed off but the 00z HRRRx is again hinting at a more northward placement of the boundary.

That contradicts Izzi's update then, as he said the HRRRx had the boundary going all the way to I-70, though he could have used an older run. In that case it could be a trend of a further north WF, 12/4km NAM were further north than 18z. 

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There's too many different placements. Honestly we won't know until tomorrow morning/aft.

 

 

Guess I should add to what I posted since more of the run has come in.  Boundary looks to be on the northern end of solutions farther to the west but it curves southeast and looks like it has a hard time getting all the way through Chicago/Cook county.

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Storms are lighting up over here.  Over the past couple hours a big elevated rotating storm dropped into Missouri.  Now a cell with a small hail core has popped just west of me and the line is firing over northern Iowa right on schedule.

 

Data seems to point to the system shifting south with a SE motion. (or im just an idiot) 

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 284

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

   1120 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

   * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

     NORTHERN AND EASTERN IOWA

     WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS

   * EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 1120 PM

     UNTIL 700 AM CDT.

   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...

     ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

     ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

   SUMMARY...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF IA.

   THESE STORMS WILL POSE A RISK OF LOCALLY SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS

   DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65

   STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES EAST

   NORTHEAST OF SPENCER IOWA TO 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF

   BURLINGTON IOWA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

 

post-4544-0-64256500-1466569694_thumb.gi

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The RAP inferno south of the front tomorrow is overdone but wouldn't be shocked to see some western areas of the sub that are safely south of the front get deep into the 90s and possibly near 100.  Going to have a pretty nice contrast in temperatures across the front.

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It'll be interesting to see what the SPC does. 

Based on model trends, I'd see the moderate risk extending to just south of the metro and the enhanced extending to around Racine, but lots of people are acting like no storms will cross the IL/WI border.

 

Considering the moderate risk right now is from Madison to Milwaukee on the northern edge, there needs to be some trimming of that northern extent of the risk.

 

I think this area would be best in the enhanced - nothing more. A shift in the moderate more in a NW-SE  direction would probably be a good call.

 

day2otlk.gif

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Can't wait to see what SPC does on the update.  If it were me, I'd take about 75-100 miles off the northern end of the current day 2 moderate risk, or basically cut the moderate risk in half, expand it south and possibly a bit west.  Conceivable that may not be enough if the front really gets hung up far south but I'd go with that for now and then see what things look like in the morning.

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Can't be a real threat without serious, hair-pulling discrepancies.

 

Personally eyeing the higher risk about a 30-40 mile shift to the southwest from the current MDT placement. Anything beyond that is beyond my comfort zone right now.

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Can't wait to see what SPC does on the update. If it were me, I'd take about 75-100 miles off the northern end of the current day 2 moderate risk, or basically cut the moderate risk in half, expand it south and possibly a bit west. Conceivable that may not be enough if the front really gets hung up far south but I'd go with that for now and then see what things look like in the morning.

That's a very reasonable call. Broyles is the outlook forecaster, which could make things really interesting.
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That's a very reasonable call. Broyles is the outlook forecaster, which could make things really interesting.

Talk about a wildcard, he could go High and it wouldn't shock me. That said I thin a 45/30/10 all hatched is coming. Maybe 45 hail hatched back near QC.
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