andyhb Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 102 kts of 0-6 km shear in the 00z Glasgow sounding with a ridiculously long hodograph (as you would expect). This is a very potent shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CHI_Weather Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 I'm not even going to say anything. This storm is way too confusing seems like it's going to hit south of I80, but then it looks like it's going to chi the metro area. We'll have a very clear picture tomorrow in the am. iDontKnowWhatsGoingToHappen.jpeg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 That seems legit, but how much can one rely on this? It'd be nice to have an idea at a quick glance instead of pulling up forecast reflectivity. A lot of the UH swaths posted look like they're north of the warm front. Are they truly north of it, or riding the front and still drawing in the good air? If the sounding is in an area of reflectivity, it will be contaminated and does not represent the environment. Storms north of the warm front will be elevated due to the geometry of the front. They can still have UH tracks since elevated storms can still rotate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Metro is unlikely. Development will still occur galena to Rockford to Rochelle back to DVN but then gradually trend SSE. The area will see some convection but the more severe and concerning stuff looks to be SW of the city. FWIW some crazy cape values out in NE/IA currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Louieloy102 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Metro is unlikely. Development will still occur galena to Rockford to Rochelle back to DVN but then gradually trend SSE. The area will see some convection but the more severe and concerning stuff looks to be SW of the city. FWIW some crazy cape values out in NE/IA currently. It'll be interesting to see what the SPC does. Based on model trends, I'd see the moderate risk extending to just south of the metro and the enhanced extending to around Racine, but lots of people are acting like no storms will cross the IL/WI border. Considering the moderate risk right now is from Madison to Milwaukee on the northern edge, there needs to be some trimming of that northern extent of the risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Wasn't following the runs throughout the day so don't know if it ever backed off but the 00z HRRRx is again hinting at a more northward placement of the boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 I'm not even going to say anything. This storm is way too confusing seems like it's going to hit south of I80, but then it looks like it's going to chi the metro area. We'll have a very clear picture tomorrow in the am. iDontKnowWhatsGoingToHappen.jpegExactly my thoughts right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Wasn't following the runs throughout the day so don't know if it ever backed off but the 00z HRRRx is again hinting at a more northward placement of the boundary.There's too many different placements. Honestly we won't know until tomorrow morning/aft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 There's too many different placements. Honestly we won't know until tomorrow morning/aft. +1 Going to be an interesting day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Wasn't following the runs throughout the day so don't know if it ever backed off but the 00z HRRRx is again hinting at a more northward placement of the boundary. That contradicts Izzi's update then, as he said the HRRRx had the boundary going all the way to I-70, though he could have used an older run. In that case it could be a trend of a further north WF, 12/4km NAM were further north than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Wasn't following the runs throughout the day so don't know if it ever backed off but the 00z HRRRx is again hinting at a more northward placement of the boundary. Looks like 8/4/08 just orientated more ESE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 This is probably one of the hardest forecasts for the NWS in awhile, sorry guys. Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadohunter Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 02 HRRR seems to have initialized pretty well. screenshot of 17z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Eric Elwell was just saying on the local news here with all the new info he was looking at, he wouldn't be surprised to see the risk areas shifted south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 There's too many different placements. Honestly we won't know until tomorrow morning/aft. Guess I should add to what I posted since more of the run has come in. Boundary looks to be on the northern end of solutions farther to the west but it curves southeast and looks like it has a hard time getting all the way through Chicago/Cook county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Looks like 8/4/08 just orientated more ESE EF2 in Griffith that night. That line was a beast on radar and that was the day that had that insanely unstable 00z sounding at ILX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Storms are lighting up over here. Over the past couple hours a big elevated rotating storm dropped into Missouri. Now a cell with a small hail core has popped just west of me and the line is firing over northern Iowa right on schedule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadohunter Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Storms are lighting up over here. Over the past couple hours a big elevated rotating storm dropped into Missouri. Now a cell with a small hail core has popped just west of me and the line is firing over northern Iowa right on schedule. Data seems to point to the system shifting south with a SE motion. (or im just an idiot) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Lines getting going in Iowa Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Might be worth comparing tomorrow's event with 7-14-04 in Roanoke Illinois http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2004/s2298.htm https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Roanoke_tornado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 284 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1120 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN IOWA WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS * EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 1120 PM UNTIL 700 AM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE SUMMARY...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF IA. THESE STORMS WILL POSE A RISK OF LOCALLY SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF SPENCER IOWA TO 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF BURLINGTON IOWA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Hearing through the thickets that the 00z NSSL WRF is rather interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 The RAP inferno south of the front tomorrow is overdone but wouldn't be shocked to see some western areas of the sub that are safely south of the front get deep into the 90s and possibly near 100. Going to have a pretty nice contrast in temperatures across the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 It'll be interesting to see what the SPC does. Based on model trends, I'd see the moderate risk extending to just south of the metro and the enhanced extending to around Racine, but lots of people are acting like no storms will cross the IL/WI border. Considering the moderate risk right now is from Madison to Milwaukee on the northern edge, there needs to be some trimming of that northern extent of the risk. I think this area would be best in the enhanced - nothing more. A shift in the moderate more in a NW-SE direction would probably be a good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Some hi-res models showing crapvection in IL thru 18z, the NSSL WRF is one of these, but it still manages to be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Hearing through the thickets that the 00z NSSL WRF is rather interesting. Nasty for DVN and points ESE-SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Can't wait to see what SPC does on the update. If it were me, I'd take about 75-100 miles off the northern end of the current day 2 moderate risk, or basically cut the moderate risk in half, expand it south and possibly a bit west. Conceivable that may not be enough if the front really gets hung up far south but I'd go with that for now and then see what things look like in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Can't be a real threat without serious, hair-pulling discrepancies. Personally eyeing the higher risk about a 30-40 mile shift to the southwest from the current MDT placement. Anything beyond that is beyond my comfort zone right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Can't wait to see what SPC does on the update. If it were me, I'd take about 75-100 miles off the northern end of the current day 2 moderate risk, or basically cut the moderate risk in half, expand it south and possibly a bit west. Conceivable that may not be enough if the front really gets hung up far south but I'd go with that for now and then see what things look like in the morning.That's a very reasonable call. Broyles is the outlook forecaster, which could make things really interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 That's a very reasonable call. Broyles is the outlook forecaster, which could make things really interesting.Talk about a wildcard, he could go High and it wouldn't shock me. That said I thin a 45/30/10 all hatched is coming. Maybe 45 hail hatched back near QC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.