Indystorm Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 DMC parameter focusing at present time on sw to nw IA where convection is initiating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 How can you guys see the HRRRX and get it to load all the way to the end? It usually won't go out that far for me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Out of town for this one. Looks potentially serious, I have been tracking it while on vacation here in Texas (where it is just plain hot). Everyone stay safe. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 How can you guys see the HRRRX and get it to load all the way to the end? It usually won't go out that far for me... Google it and go on the rapid refresh page. It doesn't do a full run every time it is run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Google it and go on the rapid refresh page. It doesn't do a full run every time it is run. Ah okay I thought I was doing something wrong; I didn't realize that it didn't do a full run every time. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 From Reed Timmer Reed Timmer @reedtimmerTVN 18m18 minutes ago Good heavens.. 7 pm tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Some of the CAMS from today are downright scary for portions of DVN and LOT for later tomorrow. Some very serious looking helicity tracks on some of them. Just browsing around the guidance indicates that almost all of them initiate the "main show" later tomorrow afternoon along, or just north of the triple point. Somewhere from the nose of Iowa, or up into far southwest WI. Models are showing a fairly narrow battle ground area where the main show will be. All models show deep moisture pooling along, and just south of the WF. This sets up an extreme instability gradient which is oriented about parallel to the storm vectors. A little ways north of the WF the boundary layer will be too stable to support tornadoes, and not all that far south of the WF the cap becomes a big problem. Looks like initially we'll be dealing with one monster sup, or maybe two that initiates and feeds well as it rides the cape gradient east-southeast. In time some additional cells will probably develop and congeal, and start growing a large MCS as it rakes east-southeast into Indiana. The LLJ really ramps up after dark tomorrow night, and with strong winds above 60kts from 850 on up we may see a nice rear-inflow jet develop at some point. Could really be quite the wind event for northern IN into western, or northwestern OH. I have to work till 4 tomorrow, so not sure if I'll be able to chase or not. Right now I'm thinking the northwest corner of IL or extreme southwest WI might be the place to be for tors, but if the setup slows a little the 20 corridor between Waterloo and Dubuque would favor. If WF gets held up even more than expected, then the threat would be a little further south more towards the 30 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Nice writeup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brohnhdon Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 The 1.3km NAM fire WRF is scheduled to run over LOT at 00Z tonight...hopefully it provides some further insight for tomorrow. As it stands right now, the threat for QLCS tornados in IN/OH once the MCS forms is extremely high with helicity values over 500, MUCAPE nearing 2000, and most importantly, 0-1km shear nearing 50kts. I wouldn't be surprised to see a 10% hatched tornado risk over the entire 45% wind risk area tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 More initialization occurring over Central Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Goinsouth.jpeg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Goinsouth.jpegWhich are you referencing- The storms tnght or tmrw? Or both? Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Which are you referencing- The storms tnght or tmrw? Or both? Haha Both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 BothMy brain tells me south, my heart tells me north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 The 1.3km NAM fire WRF is scheduled to run over LOT at 00Z tonight...hopefully it provides some further insight for tomorrow. As it stands right now, the threat for QLCS tornados in IN/OH once the MCS forms is extremely high with helicity values over 500, MUCAPE nearing 2000, and most importantly, 0-1km shear nearing 50kts. I wouldn't be surprised to see a 10% hatched tornado risk over the entire 45% wind risk area tonight. 10% over all area, 10% hatched far E IA, N IL, and far W/NW IN. (15% hatched N/NW IL??) EDIT: this is just my guess I thought up in less than 30 seconds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 10% over all area, 10% hatched far E IA, N IL, and far W/NW IN. (15% hatched N/NW IL??) EDIT: this is just my guess I thought up in less than 30 seconds. Sounds like a smart guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Another guess, no High Risk unless a Derecho manages to form or the tornadoes outperform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Was fun while it lasted. Another tease. Punt. This one never had a chance here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Many thought June 5th 2010 wasn't going to be an event in Michigan. Boy were they wrong. It wasn't for most of Michigan, with the exception of a few tornadoes for areas south of I-94. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc3395 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 From Reed Timmer Reed Timmer @reedtimmerTVN 18m18 minutes ago Good heavens.. 7 pm tomorrow what a waste of a degree. Those are almost 100% elevated as they're well north of WF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 This one never had a chance here. It did for one or maybe two runs yesterday then it went back to the same ole' same ole'. It wasn't for most of Michigan, with the exception of a few tornadoes for areas south of I-94. We were in a slight risk, but no one was thinking what happened that night would transpire. This is a pretty dynamic system though. I wouldn't be surprised if something did manage to graze us but trends aren't looking good at all for that to possibly happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadohunter Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 what a waste of a degree. Those are almost 100% elevated as they're well north of WF It's all about hype for him. He is driven by money. He's not stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Currently there are two foci of 1002 mb pressure locations in se Montana and sw South Dakota. Huge helicity in western IA yields a fixed tor of 5 and an effective tor of 12 near Omaha.. "Fasten your seatbelts. It's going to be a bumpy night." And upcoming day in the Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc3395 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 It's all about hype for him. He is driven by money. He's not stupid.gotta admit you're right and just the other day I called him a genius for that reason. Still... Waste of a degree and bad for the scienc . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Good amount of coverage of the situation on Chicago media tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Good amount of coverage of the situation on Chicago media tonight. I'm glad for that. I've got relatives in nw IN and Lake County IL. and want them to be stormready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Forbes Torcon: I'm off Thurs-Sunday, really wish I took an extra PTO day. Would be chasing this right now. =/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gnuegen Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 My brain tells me south, my heart tells me north This perfectly describes basically every severe setup I've experienced living in the city (Long time lurker, have learned a lot from this group, so many thanks for that. Looking forward to following along with you all tomorrow.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadohunter Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 gotta admit you're right and just the other day I called him a genius for that reason. Still... Waste of a degree and bad for the scienc . He is absolutely terrible for the science. Maybe if he would prove his "research" is real, people would change their tune about him. But for now? I think he is a disgrace to the chasing community. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 People around here are in a bit of a tizzy about tomorrow, especially considering it's the one year anniversary of last year's tornado. Real ironic a similar situation looks to unfold. Some people's homes are still not rebuilt from last year, and I've noticed some people have PTSD now when it comes to storms who were affected with the last 2 CC tornadoes. Hopefully with whatever happens tomorrow and wherever, everyone stays safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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