Jim Martin Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 The 12z runs of the 4km NAM, NAM, and GFS advertise an interesting severe weather risk for the lower Great Lakes. These soundings are from Findlay, OH (My hometown) for Monday Evening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 SPC and the local offices have laid out the limitations, but at least an isolated severe risk is likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 Would you consider extending this to include Wednesday as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 Front seems to have sped up on recent runs. Wondering if the main action ends up firing south of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 Going to need to extend this thread for Wednesday as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 Front seems to have sped up on recent runs. Wondering if the main action ends up firing south of here. Looks like it. Models had been pretty consistent until recently. Wasn't looking like a big deal, but was still looking forward to some convective action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 Looks like it. Models had been pretty consistent until recently. Wasn't looking like a big deal, but was still looking forward to some convective action. Well, the Wednesday possibility is starting to look better after it was looking like there would be a break, so there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 This just isn't our year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 And the Day 2 cut that Marginal down like Swiss cheese. On to Weds I guess the 0Z GFS looked good even with less instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 And the Day 2 cut that Marginal down like Swiss cheese. On to Weds I guess the 0Z GFS looked good even with less instability. And a good chunk of Ohio now in a slight risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 Good signal for MCS action across WI,IL,and IN into OH now with SPC highlighting Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 dry frontal passage monday and miss well southwest on wednesday just one of those years so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 New SPC Day 2 expanded the Slight risk slightly Northwest. Still more interested in Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 Some pretty gnarly forecast soundings near the warm front on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 IWX is interested on flooding Wed night as well. Wouldn't be surprised from the amount of rain MCSes can pump out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted June 19, 2016 Author Share Posted June 19, 2016 FAIRLY ROBUST SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY CUTTING ACROSS PRE-EXISTING LOW LEVEL THETA-E BOUNDARY. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AN INCREASING SIGNAL THAT LOCAL AREA WILL BE POSITIONED IN THE VICINITY OF A STRONG THETAE/INSTABILITY GRADIENT WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION AND/OR MCS ACTIVITY. STRONG SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE IN THIS NW FLOW REGIME SO CONCERN IS THERE FOR AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL OF AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA SOME TIME IN THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY MORNING PERIOD, WITH GREATEST CHANCES PROBABLY IN THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY. Some juicy details there from IWX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 I really fail to understand the lack of a tornado watch from Environment Canada in NW Ontario today with discrete cells currently developing within a rather favorable environment for tornadic supercells west of Lake Superior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 I really fail to understand the lack of a tornado watch from Environment Canada in NW Ontario today with discrete cells currently developing within a rather favorable environment for tornadic supercells west of Lake Superior. Environment Canada just issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 Technically a day early for this thread but the storms are expected this evening into the overnight hours so I'm putting this here. CU field building around Brainerd, MN. Storms should begin popping quickly as a cap breaks. Hoping the line that forms stays together into the TC metro. Gonna be close. 21z HRRR already too quick with storm initiation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 Some pretty gnarly forecast soundings near the warm front on Wednesday.Between Coal City and Minooka, 18z GFS valid at 00z 6/23: 18z came well north with warm front vs. previous run on Wednesday evening. Very impressive parameter space on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 Dangerous looking environment for tornadic supercells in Central MN right now, damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 KIND getting concerned for Wednesday. .LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...Issued at 241 PM EDT Sun Jun 19 2016The extended will start out potentially very active as the OhioValley resides squarely within the enhanced northwest flow regimebetween the amplifying upper trough over New England and the heatridge over the southern Plains. Confidence continues to grow inmultiple convective clusters likely impacting central Indianaas the frontal boundary oscillates across the region and astronger surface wave tracks along it Wednesday night intoThursday.While details remain heavily dependent on mesoscale factors...several signs present that are suggestive that any of theconvective clusters that form and track across central IndianaWednesday through Thursday will have a higher ceiling for severeweather...torrential rainfall and localized flooding. Expect deepmoisture and modest to strong instability along and south of wherethe boundary sets up...with precip water values at this earlystage potentially in excess of 2 inches during this timeframe. Astrengthening low level jet...increased boundary layer shear andstronger mid and upper level flow will further enhance anyorganized convective potential. Feel comfortable increasing tolikely pops for Wednesday night over much of the area asconfidence continues to rise in this scenario p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 Zzzzzz (imby) Looks bangin for north central wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 655 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DULUTH MN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... WEST CENTRAL AITKIN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA... CENTRAL CROW WING COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA... * UNTIL 745 PM CDT * AT 653 PM CDT...A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MERRIFIELD...OR 11 MILES NORTH OF BRAINERD...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND SOFTBALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO AT 630 PM 8 MILES NORTH OF STAPLES. SOFTBALL SIZE HAIL WAS ALSO REPORTED WITH THIS STORM. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... CROSBY AND CUYUNA AROUND 700 PM CDT. DEERWOOD AROUND 705 PM CDT. AITKIN AROUND 715 PM CDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE CUYUNA COUNTRY STATE PARK...UPPER MISSION LAKE...GLEN...WOODROW...HASSMAN... EDWARD LAKE...ROSSBURG...GUN LAKE...MISSION AND FARM ISLAND LAKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 Large tornado on the ground west of Meadowlands, MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 Zzzzzz (imby) Looks bangin for north central wed Looks like could be another south of I-80 event..flash flooding could also be a threat it looks like with training possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 That southern cell could be a serious problem, may make a run at Duluth (or at least the southern suburbs) if it stays together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 Big TDS on the cell I was talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 FD reporting a second funnel cloud forming with the southern cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 MNC061-137-200030- /O.CON.KDLH.TO.W.0005.000000T0000Z-160620T0030Z/ ST. LOUIS MN-ITASCA MN- 704 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN ST. LOUIS AND SOUTHEASTERN ITASCA COUNTIES... AT 703 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES EAST OF SWAN RIVER...OR 23 MILES NORTHEAST OF BIG SANDY LAKE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES... BUSINESSES...AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... WAWINA AND ISLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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