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6/19-6/23 Severe Weather Risk


Jim Martin

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Looks like it. Models had been pretty consistent until recently. Wasn't looking like a big deal, but was still looking forward to some convective action.

Well, the Wednesday possibility is starting to look better after it was looking like there would be a break, so there's that.

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 FAIRLY ROBUST SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY CUTTING ACROSS PRE-EXISTING LOW LEVEL THETA-E BOUNDARY. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AN INCREASING SIGNAL THAT LOCAL AREA WILL BE POSITIONED IN THE VICINITY OF A STRONG THETAE/INSTABILITY GRADIENT WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION AND/OR MCS ACTIVITY. STRONG SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE IN THIS NW FLOW REGIME SO CONCERN IS THERE FOR AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL OF AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA SOME TIME IN THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY MORNING PERIOD, WITH GREATEST CHANCES PROBABLY IN THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY.

 

Some juicy details there from IWX...

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I really fail to understand the lack of a tornado watch from Environment Canada in NW Ontario today with discrete cells currently developing within a rather favorable environment for tornadic supercells west of Lake Superior.

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Technically a day early for this thread but the storms are expected this evening into the overnight hours so I'm putting this here. CU field building around Brainerd, MN. Storms should begin popping quickly as a cap breaks. Hoping the line that forms stays together into the TC metro. Gonna be close. 21z HRRR already too quick with storm initiation.

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KIND getting concerned for Wednesday.

 

.LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...
Issued at 241 PM EDT Sun Jun 19 2016

The extended will start out potentially very active as the Ohio
Valley resides squarely within the enhanced northwest flow regime
between the amplifying upper trough over New England and the heat
ridge over the southern Plains. Confidence continues to grow in
multiple convective clusters likely impacting central Indiana
as the frontal boundary oscillates across the region and a
stronger surface wave tracks along it Wednesday night into
Thursday.

While details remain heavily dependent on mesoscale factors...
several signs present that are suggestive that any of the
convective clusters that form and track across central Indiana
Wednesday through Thursday will have a higher ceiling for severe
weather...torrential rainfall and localized flooding. Expect deep
moisture and modest to strong instability along and south of where
the boundary sets up...with precip water values at this early
stage potentially in excess of 2 inches during this timeframe. A
strengthening low level jet...increased boundary layer shear and
stronger mid and upper level flow will further enhance any
organized convective potential. Feel comfortable increasing to
likely pops for Wednesday night over much of the area as
confidence continues to rise in this scenario p

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN  
655 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DULUTH MN HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
WEST CENTRAL AITKIN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...  
CENTRAL CROW WING COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...  
 
* UNTIL 745 PM CDT  
 
* AT 653 PM CDT...A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MERRIFIELD...OR  
11 MILES NORTH OF BRAINERD...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND SOFTBALL SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO AT 630 PM  
8 MILES NORTH OF STAPLES. SOFTBALL SIZE HAIL WAS  
ALSO REPORTED WITH THIS STORM.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...  
CROSBY AND CUYUNA AROUND 700 PM CDT.  
DEERWOOD AROUND 705 PM CDT.  
AITKIN AROUND 715 PM CDT.  
 
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE CUYUNA  
COUNTRY STATE PARK...UPPER MISSION LAKE...GLEN...WOODROW...HASSMAN...  
EDWARD LAKE...ROSSBURG...GUN LAKE...MISSION AND FARM ISLAND LAKE.  
 

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MNC061-137-200030-  
/O.CON.KDLH.TO.W.0005.000000T0000Z-160620T0030Z/  
ST. LOUIS MN-ITASCA MN-  
704 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016  
 
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT FOR  
SOUTHWESTERN ST. LOUIS AND SOUTHEASTERN ITASCA COUNTIES...  
 
AT 703 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES EAST OF SWAN  
RIVER...OR 23 MILES NORTHEAST OF BIG SANDY LAKE...MOVING EAST AT 35  
MPH.  
 
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
 
IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY  
BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES  
WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES...  
BUSINESSES...AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION  
IS POSSIBLE.  
 
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
WAWINA AND ISLAND.  

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