Eskimo Joe Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 95% of a WW soon: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2016/md0950.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 95% of a WW soon: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2016/md0950.html Might see two watches issued... one for Eastern Ohio into N WV first and then another one for LWX's CWA after... I don't think we are going to see one huge watch issued from SPC from E OH into VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 And we begin BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 104 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... GRANT COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA... HARDY COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 145 PM EDT * AT 104 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER BAYARD...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... MOOREFIELD...PETERSBURG...BAYARD...ROUGH RUN...GORMAN...MEDLEY... ARTHUR...MASONVILLE...LAHMANSVILLE...CABINS...MARTIN...WELTON... STREBY...MAYSVILLE...OLD FIELDS...BISMARCK...LANDES... MOUNT STORM...RIG AND MCNEILL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Might see two watches issued... one for Eastern Ohio into N WV first and then another one for LWX's CWA after... I don't think we are going to see one huge watch issued from SPC from E OH into VA Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 From LWX's updated HWO as of 1:20 PM: SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.THE MAIN THREAT IS DAMAGING WIND WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATEDTORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST RISK WILL BE BETWEEN 6 PMAND 10 PM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS VIRGINIA AND THE WASHINGTONMETROPOLITAN AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 I know its prob wrong, but newer HRRRs are super meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted June 16, 2016 Author Share Posted June 16, 2016 no change to SPC update. I thought this was new - I didn't see it in the overnight - ...CENTRAL AND SRN APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC VICINITY... A BAND OF STORMS MOVING INTO CENTRAL PA HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST HOUR...WITH DENSE CLOUD COVER INTO THE MOUNTAINS LIMITING DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...ON THE SWRN FRINGE OF THIS CLOUDINESS /INTO SWRN PA AND AREAS S AND W/...DIURNAL HEATING OF A MOIST /MID 60S TO LOW 70S DEWPOINTS/ BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS THE VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/COOL FRONT SHIFTS SEWD ACROSS OH...A BAND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ORGANIZE/GROW UPSCALE INTO A BOWING MCS AND SHIFT QUICKLY SEWD ACROSS THE SRN PA/WV/MD AREA...AND INTO VA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GIVEN 35 TO 55 KT FLOW IN THE 850 TO 500 MB LAYER...EXPECT FAST STORM MOTIONS AND LIKELIHOOD FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH A TORNADO OR TWO. STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE DELMARVA REGION AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER IN THE EVENING...THOUGH SOME DAMAGING WIND RISK WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST BEFORE STORMS MOVE OFFSHORE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 I thought this was new - I didn't see it in the overnight - -disco- I think she means graphically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 I think she means graphically. Yeah. That's what was meant. The discussion changes with every update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Boy you read the latest SPC disco and you'd think a low end derecho was about to happen. Then look at the HRRRRRRRRR and it a total meh event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted June 16, 2016 Author Share Posted June 16, 2016 Yeah. That's what was meant. The discussion changes with every update. Of course Mapgirl meant it graphically! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Boy you read the latest SPC disco and you'd think a low end derecho was about to happen. Then look at the HRRRRRRRRR and it a total meh event. bolded is the inevitable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Of course Mapgirl meant it graphically! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Boy you read the latest SPC disco and you'd think a low end derecho was about to happen. Then look at the HRRRRRRRRR and it a total meh event. yeah thats making it hard for me to get excited, i know the hrrr is complete %#$ but maybe its right with the way cape erodes prior to the storms arriving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Boy you read the latest SPC disco and you'd think a low end derecho was about to happen. Then look at the HRRRRRRRRR and it a total meh event. I'm pretty sure it could be raining fire, brimstone, frogs and eventually death and you would still say Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 yeah thats making it hard for me to get excited, i know the hrrr is complete %#$ but maybe its right with the way cape erodes prior to the storms arriving HRRR didn't pick up on the mid day action though, I've noticed it's either spot on or totally off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 HRRR didn't pick up on the mid day action though, I've noticed it's either spot on or totally off. gee, so maybe don't let it affect how things play out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 I'm pretty sure it could be raining fire, brimstone, frogs and eventually death and you would still say Meh. didnt he say he was in earlier or am i remember wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 What does the CRAS show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 I know it will most likely be a STW... but wouldn't be surprised if it was a TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 I know it will most likely be a STW... but wouldn't be surprised if it was a TW Thought the same thing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Rgem gives me 4.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Yea I'm in, more for the nighttime flooding aspect. Always like running water calls in the dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Given that it already looks pretty linear SE of CLE it's going to be a STW 90 percent sure. Who knows with SPC, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Blue Box until 02:00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 The 12z ECMWF has 3-4" of rain in DC proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Rack up another 90F here. And I see the complex out in WV has already split apart and headed N and S of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted June 16, 2016 Author Share Posted June 16, 2016 Watch issued. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 261NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK155 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 261 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDTFOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONSMDC001-003-005-009-013-017-021-023-025-027-031-033-037-043-510-170200-/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0261.160616T1755Z-160617T0200Z/MD. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED AREALLEGANY ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORECALVERT CARROLL CHARLESFREDERICK GARRETT HARFORDHOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGESST. MARYS WASHINGTONMARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED AREBALTIMORE CITY$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Rack up another 90F here. And I see the complex out in WV has already split apart and headed N and S of here. 90 in MBY too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 211 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN PAGE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA... NORTHEASTERN ROCKINGHAM COUNTY IN WESTERN VIRGINIA... SOUTHWESTERN SHENANDOAH COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA... SOUTHWESTERN HARDY COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 300 PM EDT * AT 211 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MATHIAS...OR 8 MILES SOUTH OF MOOREFIELD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...DAMAGING WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME TREES AND LARGE BRANCHES TO FALL. THIS COULD INJURE THOSE OUTDOORS...AS WELL AS DAMAGE HOMES AND VEHICLES. ROADWAYS MAY BECOME BLOCKED BY DOWNED TREES. LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. UNSECURED LIGHT OBJECTS MAY BECOME PROJECTILES. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... TIMBERVILLE...MOUNT JACKSON...BASYE-BRYCE MOUNTAIN...MATHIAS... NEW MARKET...BASYE...EDINBURG...HARMONY...KINGS CROSSING... LOST RIVER...QUICKSBURG...FORESTVILLE...HAWKINSTOWN... MOUNT CLIFTON...JEROME...ORKNEY SPRINGS... LOST CITY AND SHENANDOAH CAVERNS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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