PrinceFrederickWx Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Flash flood watch for everyone but Calvert and St Mary's- every time that happens I end up being the bull's eye LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 This thread is worthless without Ian's meh forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Flash flood watch for everyone but Calvert and St Mary's- every time that happens I end up being the bull's eye LOL Remember though that it's not entirely about the bullseye for the watch. They factor in who has the lowest FFG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 This thread is worthless without Ian's meh forecast. I think Ian already put in his permanent meh until next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 HRRR wants to pop discrete Thunderstorms out ahead over Central/Northern MD in the 4-6pm timeframe. However it looks like another day where HRRR could be way off, like it's showing Mid 90s for the I-81 corridor and Cumberland reaching 98. The line wants to get here around 8:00pm, looks unimpressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Last flood watch my back yard was under, it got 0.04". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 HRRR wants to pop discrete Thunderstorms out ahead over Central/Northern MD in the 4-6pm timeframe. However it looks like another day where HRRR could be way off, like it's showing Mid 90s for the I-81 corridor and Cumberland reaching 98. The line wants to get here around 8:00pm, looks unimpressive. Can't remember the last time the HRRR was right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 HRRR wants to pop discrete Thunderstorms out ahead over Central/Northern MD in the 4-6pm timeframe. However it looks like another day where HRRR could be way off, like it's showing Mid 90s for the I-81 corridor and Cumberland reaching 98. The line wants to get here around 8:00pm, looks unimpressive. No, it's not. It's sunny here and hot as #$&@ already. You guys to east will get to enjoy the storms that form overhead and east from this white-hot sauna. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 The sun is peaking through the clouds here in Waldorf. This could be a sneaky event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 The NAM and HRRR are completely missing the strength of that MCS in Western PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Watch the western PA MCS drop a boundary over our area and it just lights up the evening activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Watch the western PA MCS drop a boundary over our area and it just lights up the evening activity. Do you think the MCS will survive further East? The HRRR has it dying off by early afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Are those discrete sups that the 12z 4km NAM is showing in NW VA/W MD at 00z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Do you think the MCS will survive further East? The HRRR has it dying off by early afternoon. Even if it dies it *could* leave boundaries around to trigger stuff later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Do you think the MCS will survive further East? The HRRR has it dying off by early afternoon. sigh. it was always supposed to die off some and reorganize as it came east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Seems like now cast event. If we get any sustained clearing then all bets are off. EHN. Risk to the Potomac . Won't take much to expand that area. Just my 2 cents. Brightening skies. 74/68 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Tough being on the edge but not sure what's up wth SPC lately. Seems like amateur hour over there this year. Instability doesn't seem too impressive on any model locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Could someone explain the process / mechanism by which a dying storm can produce a boundary? Boundary consisting of what? How would it hang around and trigger storms hours later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 There is hardly a cloud in the sky here. It is hot and as muggy as I can ever recall feeling. 80 / 73. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 sigh. it was always supposed to die off some and reorganize as it came east. No, the current line is expected to weaken and then reform over Ohio around 19z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted June 16, 2016 Author Share Posted June 16, 2016 Looking at the more recent guidance, how do I edit the title of this thread to say 16th-17th, not just 17th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Seems like now cast event. If we get any sustained clearing then all bets are off. EHN. Risk to the Potomac . Won't take much to expand that area. Just my 2 cents. Brightening skies. 74/68 The highest CAPE runs the Potomac south and west. Temp inversion limiting instability to the north and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Could someone explain the process / mechanism by which a dying storm can produce a boundary? Boundary consisting of what? How would it hang around and trigger storms hours later? You can go way more technical, but the idea is that there is a boundary between the undisturbed air and the air that has been modified by the prior storms. Boundaries can stick around for a long time in certain situations, but I'm not sure this is one of them. Like SPC said earlier, we really need to stick around or south of the (rather diffuse) warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 4km NAM is similar to earlier. Actually, very odd looking. It really just dispenses with the idea of a linear MCS and just seems to focus convection with the large-scale features. The HRRR is a more traditional MCS. I'd side with the HRRR just because the NAM is such an oddity. Plus, there probably isn't going to be 10" of rain in a couple of hours in Loudoun/MoCo. edit - similar marine layer influence as earlier. DCA low-mid 60s temps prior to the storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Tough being on the edge but not sure what's up wth SPC lately. Seems like amateur hour over there this year. Instability doesn't seem too impressive on any model locally. SPC seems to overplay meh days and underplay good days around here it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted June 16, 2016 Author Share Posted June 16, 2016 Go to your very first post and use the full editor. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 You can go way more technical, but the idea is that there is a boundary between the undisturbed air and the air that has been modified by the prior storms. Boundaries can stick around for a long time in certain situations, but I'm not sure this is one of them. Like SPC said earlier, we really need to stick around or south of the (rather diffuse) warm front. Any idea right now where that diffuse warm front is running? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 CYA move perhaps? Well nothing really changed overnight. So their moves from sub mrgl yesterday to enh today don't make a whole ton of sense. It's tough to say exactly how far northeast good instability will make it so it's probably worth leaving some breathing room. Although at the same time the general look is still for the complex to come in as instability is waning. So... I dunno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 12z 4km NAM sounding in Rockingham County/Page County (Western VA) for 00z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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