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June 16th-17th Floodmageddon


eurojosh

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     This isn't meant to attack your comment, as there was certainly reason to start a thread.    But it's probably not fair to bash the NAM for this event.      I think that some people got excited with seeing the impressive signal in the NAM nest simulated composite reflectivity persisting into the metro area, and the observed composite reflectivity actually *did* look healthy.    The reason it wasn't more wild here is that as the sfc low started organizing to our south, the low-level easterly flow really kicked in and cooled the low levels, removing sfc-based instability and causing our part of the line to lose its severe characteristics (even though it was still a heavy rainer and therefore showed healthy reflectivity).    The NAM showed this exact scenario in many forecasts, several of which were noted in the general svr wx thread.

 

      Simulated reflectivity is an awesome model product, but one still needs to look at the environment it's in before inferring severe weather potential.     Large values of simulated reflectivity do not always mean severe weather.

 

 

if I ever start a thread based on the NAM again, ditto.

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Got 0.05" from early morning shower, then 0.80" from our event yesterday evening.  I see that PWSs in the region also show rain since midnight.  It didn't wake me last night, and was mostly dry this morning, so I didn't even bother to check my gauge before I left for work to see if it had rained overnight.  Close by reports show between 0.4 and 0.47" since midnight.  Some cloudiness today and that should green everything up for a few days at least.

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Significant wind damage in the Richmond area.  Henrico County and City of Richmond closed schools.  33 of 72 Henrico schools had no power at noon today.  Check this map link for many pictures of widespread damage:

 

http://www.nbc12.com/story/32246619/map-of-storm-damage-in-central-virginia?clienttype=generic

 

My property saw little damage and power thankfully stayed on.

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Significant wind damage in the Richmond area. Henrico County and City of Richmond closed schools. 33 of 72 Henrico schools had no power at noon today. Check this map link for many pictures of widespread damage:

http://www.nbc12.com/story/32246619/map-of-storm-damage-in-central-virginia?clienttype=generic

My property saw little damage and power thankfully stayed on.

I know the majority of this forum is DC/MD area, but since I work in Richmond, I will say that the damage down there is way worse than us northerners are giving it credit for. All of my employees are still without power down there and power company says at the earliest, tomorrow night restored.

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I know the majority of this forum is DC/MD area, but since I work in Richmond, I will say that the damage down there is way worse than us northerners are giving it credit for. All of my employees are still without power down there and power company says at the earliest, tomorrow night restored.

59k still out. That's pretty bad.

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