SACRUS Posted June 24, 2023 Author Share Posted June 24, 2023 On 6/12/2016 at 9:26 AM, SACRUS said: With just about 3 weeks to go the holiday will slowly start showing up on some long range forecasts Past July 4th's Year. 23..21..20..19..18..17...16..15...14...13...12....11....10...09...08....07....06...05....04...03...02...01...00...99...98...97...96...95..94...93 EWR: 91..84..87...89...89...88...84...79...76...91...97...92...101...83...81....73...89...80...87...94...100...81....88...99...86...88...72...84..86..97 LGA:. 87..79..88...93...84...87...86...75...74...91....95...88....98....81...80....73...92...82...83...93...98....81....84...95...86...87...73...84..83..92 TTN: 85..79..89...91...91...86...82...75...75...84....88...95....99....81...80....74...89...84...89...92...97....82....87...99...85...84...73...81..83..92 JFK: 85..75..85....97...86...85...82...80...76....84...89...86....101...83...82....72...86..78...79...92...99....75....81...97...82...89...74...80..83..96 NYC: 85..77.. 87...90...86...85...84...75...74...87....92...86....96....79...78....71...87...83...82...92...96....79....84...96...84...85...71...84..86..95 10 Days till the fourth of July. Looks warm currently but storms chances Sat/Sun befoee drier Mon the third and Tue Independence Day Go low to mid 80s Sat - Sun (some storms especially Sat the 1st) warmer Mon and Tue : 85 - 90 (isolated storms) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 25, 2023 Author Share Posted June 25, 2023 Holiday weekend flow comes around more S Westerly and while storm chances remain it will be less widespread and higher heat potential as indications of the stronger heat nearby with >18c 850s near by. 7/1 - 7/4 looks warm and storm chances 7/1-7/2 with a drier summer(ier) 7/3 and July fourth. Sat 7/1 : low / mid 80s scattered storms Sun 7/2: Mid 80s scattered storms Mon 7/3 : mid / upper 80s scattered / isolated storms Tue 7/4 : upper 80s / low 90s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 Hopefully the gfs is wrong about this weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 27, 2023 Author Share Posted June 27, 2023 Models continue a warm / humid n=unsettled pattern into Sat / Sun but much like the past weekend there should be periods of sun and more scattered storms . Sun night into Monday looks more focused storms/showers. Later the third and Independence day looks to dry out with more isolated storms. Sat: Scattered storms : low - mid 80s Sun (7/2): scattered storms / overnight widespread storms: low 80s Mon (7/3) early storms : mid 80s Tue (7/4) : Isolated storms : mid 80 / upper 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 28, 2023 Author Share Posted June 28, 2023 Continues to look Florida-like into the Holiday weekend with humid, storm chances and warm condiitions. The fourth looks to dry out by morning from Mon 7/3 pm and evening to overnight storms. Sat: P. cloudy , scattered storms (mainly evening) : low - mid 80s Sun: P cloudy, sacttered storms : low 80s (perhaps more cloudy) Mon: P - m cloudy storms in the PM and evening (widespread) : near 80 Fourth of July : Morning scattered storms and clouds clearing , warm : mid 80s 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 1 hour ago, SACRUS said: Continues to look Florida-like into the Holiday weekend with humid, storm chances and warm condiitions. The fourth looks to dry out by morning from Mon 7/3 pm and evening to overnight storms. Sat: P. cloudy , scattered storms (mainly evening) : low - mid 80s Sun: P cloudy, sacttered storms : low 80s (perhaps more cloudy) Mon: P - m cloudy storms in the PM and evening (widespread) : near 80 Fourth of July : Morning scattered storms and clouds clearing , warm : mid 80s We're going to have our holiday cookouts on tuesday and wednesday. Looks as if that will work out best with the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 29, 2023 Author Share Posted June 29, 2023 Looks like a humid, warm and at times stormy Fourth of July extended weekend. Low - mid 80s, worst most widespread storms Sun PM and Mon PM into the morning of the fourth. Sat: Patly to mostly cloudy , humid near 80 / low 80s. Scattered storms. Sun : Partly cloudy, warm / humid low - mid 80s (warmer where the sun is out longer) widespread storms later at night Mon (7/3) : Cloudy with potential strong widespread storms PM / evening into the overnight Tue (Fourth of July) : becoming partly cloudy, warmer mid 80s . scattered storms persist in areas but not a washout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 29, 2023 Share Posted June 29, 2023 Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 30, 2023 Author Share Posted June 30, 2023 75/ 66 P cloudy and smoke haze (smaze). Dry and warm today and we continue a reprieve from the tropics. July opens not too bad warm / humid and scattered late storms before a stormier Sun (7/2) and Mon (7/3). When and where the sun is out it will warm or heat quickly with 850 temps >18c throughout the area. Southerly flow and heat spell some strong soakers late Sun and Mon especially. Storms and low pressure moving out by Fourth of July. Warm and drier 7/5 - 7/8 as it looks now with next shot at 90s with hot edge of the TX/OK , Southern Plain heat into the areas >16c. Beyond : overall warm and humid and the western Atlantic ridge looming by and expanding west spells a longer warmer stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 30, 2023 Share Posted June 30, 2023 Nam has a strip of heavy rain Sunday night and again Monday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 30, 2023 Author Share Posted June 30, 2023 Fri (6/30): Partly cloudy and Smoke haze : mid / upper 80s Sat (7/1) - Mon 7/3) : Partly to mostly cloudy warm, humid wit scattered storms Sat, widespread storms Sun evening and widespread strong storms Mon Pm into the overnigt. Clearing in the morning of the fourth. Dry (widely scattered thunder storms) warm upper 80s to near 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted June 30, 2023 Share Posted June 30, 2023 49 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Fri (6/30): Partly cloudy and Smoke haze : mid / upper 80s Sat (7/1) - Mon 7/3) : Partly to mostly cloudy warm, humid wit scattered storms Sat, widespread storms Sun evening and widespread strong storms Mon Pm into the overnigt. Clearing in the morning of the fourth. Dry (widely scattered thunder storms) warm upper 80s to near 90. Good to see that the models now get the rain out of the way late monday and are showing a dry 4th. I wouldn't rule out a couple pop ups, but overall it's looking good for the holiday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted June 30, 2023 Share Posted June 30, 2023 What's the timing look like for rain on Sunday? Moreso evening or we talking morning rain too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 2, 2023 Author Share Posted July 2, 2023 Euro has some lingering storms into the fourth now so we'll see but looks scattered. When and where the sun is out Sun / Mon it will warm up quickly but some storms could be soakers. Sun : partly to mostly cloudy scattered storms becoming more widespread by the evening. Low to mid 80s. (upper 80s where sun is out) Mon (7/3): Partly cloudy scattered storms. Low to mid 80s . Stronger storms in the afternoon and into the night. Tue (7/4): Clearing warm with isolated storms. Upper 80s to low 90s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 4, 2023 Author Share Posted July 4, 2023 Looking like a warm humid fourth, some scattered storms but fireworks time isolated storms more east and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted July 4, 2023 Share Posted July 4, 2023 Going to be some impressive totals coming out of Hudson, Essex and Union counties when all is said and done. Especially Essex and Union! Essex and Union just getting super soaked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 21 Author Share Posted June 21 On 6/12/2016 at 9:26 AM, SACRUS said: With just about 3 weeks to go the holiday will slowly start showing up on some long range forecasts Past July 4th's Year. 23..21..20..19..18..17...16..15...14...13...12....11....10...09...08....07....06...05....04...03...02...01...00...99...98...97...96...95..94...93 EWR: 91..84..87...89...89...88...84...79...76...91...97...92...101...83...81....73...89...80...87...94...100...81....88...99...86...88...72...84..86..97 LGA:. 87..79..88...93...84...87...86...75...74...91....95...88....98....81...80....73...92...82...83...93...98....81....84...95...86...87...73...84..83..92 TTN: 85..79..89...91...91...86...82...75...75...84....88...95....99....81...80....74...89...84...89...92...97....82....87...99...85...84...73...81..83..92 JFK: 85..75..85....97...86...85...82...80...76....84...89...86....101...83...82....72...86..78...79...92...99....75....81...97...82...89...74...80..83..96 NYC: 85..77.. 87...90...86...85...84...75...74...87....92...86....96....79...78....71...87...83...82...92...96....79....84...96...84...85...71...84..86..95 July 4th coming into range and most guidance showing ridging into the east SW/SSW flow - warm/humid for the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 22 Author Share Posted June 22 General forecast on the major medium/long range is for a hot/humid Jul 4th. Ridging rebuilds towards the first and it looks hot leading into the 4th and the extended weekend. WIll need to watch storms under aamore humid flow and the ridge periphery. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 23 Author Share Posted June 23 General forecast continues to look overall warm for the July 4th period. Ridging east and occasional NW flow interrupting the hotter S-SW flow. Period looks near - above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 24 Author Share Posted June 24 General forecast continues to look overall warm / humid into the Jul 4th period. A bit cooler 7/1 - 7/2, warmer/humid 7/3 into the exrentded weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 25 Author Share Posted June 25 General forecast continues to look overall warm for the Jul 4th period coming into Day 9 now. Cooler 7/-7/2, warming the 3rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 26 Author Share Posted June 26 Consistent forecast looking warmer overall and both GFS/EURO keep it overall dry the 7/3-7/4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 2 hours ago, SACRUS said: Consistent forecast looking warmer overall and both GFS/EURO keep it overall dry the 7/3-7/4 Let's hope these early model runs are correct about a dry 4th. We need good weather for the cookouts and fireworks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 27 Author Share Posted June 27 Forecast continues to look like a drier 7/1-7-2 heating up by Wed (3rd) and overall warm - hot 4th and into the weekend. Euro dry,GFS has slight chance of storms / clouds but not a washout- a week away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 28 Author Share Posted June 28 Forecast continues to trend hotter by 7/3 and the 4th of July and into the weekend. There is more of a tropical humid flow with a dying fontal boundary capable of producing scattered showers storms and amore in / out of the clouds (Florida) style. Upper 80s - low 90s. Some forecasts show surge of >20C 850 Mb temps by Wednesdya afternoon into the 4th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 29 Author Share Posted June 29 Hot / humid with chance for scattered storms on the 4th - looks mainly ok. Warm- hot by the 3rd and the weekend looks hot/humid overall but storm chances epsecilially later on the 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 2 Author Share Posted July 2 Partly cloudy and warm upper 80s to 90s, by the evening a piece of energy is triggering storms to the west and north, perhaps some scttered / isolated showers into the evening - not ideal but looks overall 85%- 90% like a great fourth. Good luck and enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Nam could put a damper on some fireworks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Nam could put a damper on some fireworks Always. Its amazing. Would love to see a stat on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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