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June 12-18 Severe/Heavy Rain Threats/Possibilities


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Ended up on a nice frontage road and stayed out ahead of circulation until it finally passed north and east. Then things kind of congealed up so I ditched the Neenah storm.

Heading south on 41 for Lomira. Going to try and beat that southernmost cell to the lake breeze boundary. Looks like it might have another go at it.

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SOMEONE IS HAVING A VERY BAD DAY

 

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1051 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

MIC121-139-160330-
/O.CON.KGRR.SV.W.0010.000000T0000Z-160616T0330Z/
MUSKEGON MI-OTTAWA MI-
1051 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 PM EDT
FOR MUSKEGON AND OTTAWA COUNTIES...

AT 1050 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM MUSKEGON TO 9 MILES WEST OF GRAND HAVEN...MOVING EAST
AT 45 MPH.

THESE ARE VERY DANGEROUS STORMS.

HAZARD...85 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED. EXPECT
CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES.
EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MUSKEGON... GRAND HAVEN... WALKER...
MUSKEGON HEIGHTS... HUDSONVILLE... COOPERSVILLE...
ROOSEVELT PARK... NORTH MUSKEGON... FERRYSBURG...
RAVENNA... FRUITPORT... JENISON...
NORTON SHORES... GRANDVILLE... DALTON...
SULLIVAN... SPRING LAKE... WRIGHT...
CASNOVIA... VICKERYVILLE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
GRAND RAPIDS.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 4334 8634 4324 8579 4286 8578 4296 8622
4312 8627 4328 8637
TIME...MOT...LOC 0250Z 291DEG 37KT 4324 8623 4301 8640

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...85MPH

$

OSTUNO

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Grand Rapids is about to get rocked.

 

 

155

WUUS53 KGRR 160309

SVRGRR

MIC081-160400-

/O.NEW.KGRR.SV.W.0011.160616T0309Z-160616T0400Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI

1109 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

CENTRAL KENT COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN...

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT

* AT 1107 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR

COOPERSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

GRAND RAPIDS... LOWELL... WYOMING...

KENTWOOD... WALKER... EAST GRAND RAPIDS...

ROCKFORD... SPARTA... FOREST HILLS...

NORTHVIEW... GRANDVILLE... ADA...

GRATTAN... COMSTOCK PARK... BELMONT...

ALTO... CANNONSBURG... CASCADE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION. THIS STORM IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD

WIND DAMAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN MUSKEGON COUNTY AND NORTHERN OTTAWA

COUNTY. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY

FROM WINDOWS.

CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS

STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES LEADING

KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH

TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

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of course it fizzles out before it makes it here. we could really use the rain too.

The brick wall is fierce these days, I knew though that it was going to run out of gas when the winds shifted southeast and the dew point dropped from 70 to 59.

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The brick wall is fierce these days, I knew though that it was going to run out of gas when the winds shifted southeast and the dew point dropped from 70 to 59.

 

As things stand now *(knocks on wood)*, Monday looks to be the best-looking shot for severe weather we've seen so far locally.

 

The setup isn't half-bad for QLCS action.

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As things stand now *(knocks on wood)*, (Insert day) looks to be the best-looking shot for severe weather we've seen so far locally.

 

The setup isn't half-bad for QLCS action.

 

The most used phrase on American Wx lol. But, yeah, you're right, although looking like Monday into Tuesday here.

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I do have a feeling that there will be a dry cold frontal passage IMBY...

 

LOL - was my exact thoughts the day before, then again when skies totally cleared out and dp's fell right at sunset. I thought "another swing and a miss" but we didn't get shutout after all. Maybe it improves from here on??

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LOL - was my exact thoughts the day before, then again when skies totally cleared out and dp's fell right at sunset. I thought "another swing and a miss" but we didn't get shutout after all. Maybe it improves from here on??

Haha very possible. There was constant CC lightning. Didn't have one boomer or CG locally, by one thing that was pretty neat that I've never heard before was just a constant rumble. An hour of it was pretty sweet. Picked up about a half an inch of rain and that was it. Enjoyed every minute of it.

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This went under the radar but SPC's afternoon Day 2 for tomorrow has introduced a Enhanced risk (30% hatched) for central MN.  Currently the Twin Cities isn't in the hatched area--yet:

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

..WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES/UPPER MS VALLEY REGION SWWD TO ERN SD/NWRN   IA...   AN OVERNIGHT/ONGOING MCS INVOF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER -- I.E.   PARTS OF ERN ND AND NWRN MN -- MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE   PERIOD...WHICH COULD POSE LINGERING SEVERE RISK /HAIL AND/OR   DAMAGING WINDS/ ACROSS PARTS OF THIS AREA.  EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO   DIMINISH WITH SWD EXTENT THROUGH THE MORNING...PRIMARILY AFFECTING   SWRN ONTARIO.  MEANWHILE...NEW/AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS   FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS MN/ERN SD INVOF THE ESEWD-MOVING COLD   FRONT...AS STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT COMBINE WITH A MOIST/HEATING   BOUNDARY LAYER TO YIELD MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /3000 TO 4000   J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE/.  CAPPING SHOULD HINDER DEVELOPMENT UNTIL MID   AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS AREA...AND SHOULD MORE SUBSTANTIALLY LIMIT   PROSPECTS FOR ANY MORE THAN ISOLATED STORMS WITH SWWD EXTENT ALONG   THE FRONT INTO THE NEB VICINITY.     AS THE UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER   ADVANCES...STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW /50 TO 60 KT/ SHOULD OVERSPREAD   CENTRAL AND NRN MN DURING THE AFTERNOON.  ATOP BOUNDARY-LAYER SSWLY   WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR...SHEAR WILL BECOME VERY SUPPORTIVE OF   SUPERCELLS -- AND THUS A FEW INTENSE CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY   LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE BY LATE   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL   HEATING/BOUNDARY-LAYER STABILIZATION AS THE EVENING WEARS   ON...SEVERE RISK SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS STORMS SPREAD EWD INTO   THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.   ..GOSS.. 06/18/2016Also FWIW maybe extend this thread to Monday (June 20)for a large Marginal area from S IA/N MO to W NY, including Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, etc.:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

...ERN IA...NRN IL/IN/OH...SRN LOWER MI...NWRN PA AND WRN AND NRN   NY...   SPORADIC SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING IN   ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT MONDAY MORNING FROM NEBRASKA EWD   ACROSS IA...WI AND MI...WITH PERHAPS SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND   GUSTS WITH ANY ONGOING LINES OF STORMS. LATER IN THE DAY...STRONG   HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND AID IN REDEVELOPMENT.   SINCE THE AREA IS S OF THE UPPER JET...THERE MAY BE SOME SUBSIDENCE   ALOFT AS INDICATED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH WARM LAYERS IN THE   MIDLEVELS. IN ADDITION...SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT   MAY SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LAKE   ERIE/ONTARIO AREA CLOSER TO THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT.   ..JEWELL.. 06/18/2016
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