OceanStWx Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 Yeah this was about as red flagged a slight risk day as you can get. Meanwhile on Friday down in Philadelphia they had widespread severe wind damage and barely a peep out of SPC. You need to figure out where you can add value to their forecasts and the PHL example was a perfect case. No real outlook, a MD that says meh, yet 100k+ without power and millions of people getting 50 knot gusts. The forecast was a pretty easy one too down there. Not a good week for SPC. We just had an Eastern Region science share about SPC outlooks in the Northeast. Conclusion they are actually better locally than nationally when it comes to the critical scores of POD, FAR, and CSI. Color me surprised too. What the results showed was that SPC generally does a good job with outlooked risks (Saturday notwithstanding). If they issue a slight or higher, something usually happens. More often an event overperforms (no outlook, something big happens). Of that subset of overperformers, most often those are NW flow events (versus W or SW). And typically overperformers are low shear. Intuitively I get that, it's hard for SPC to get a signal for severe weather in low shear. But we know those low amplitude waves can sometimes be our best producers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 Not a good week for SPC. We just had an Eastern Region science share about SPC outlooks in the Northeast. Conclusion they are actually better locally than nationally when it comes to the critical scores of POD, FAR, and CSI. Color me surprised too. What the results showed was that SPC generally does a good job with outlooked risks (Saturday notwithstanding). If they issue a slight or higher, something usually happens. More often an event overperforms (no outlook, something big happens). Of that subset of overperformers, most often those are NW flow events (versus W or SW). And typically overperformers are low shear. Intuitively I get that, it's hard for SPC to get a signal for severe weather in low shear. But we know those low amplitude waves can sometimes be our best producers. Interesting. The number of reports probably plays into the verification too. With the population density around here (and good spotter networks) we can get dozens of wind damage reports from 30 knot winds in the summer lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 Here I am pretending I'm 20 running around campus in ITH, when I finally realize I have a problem. I'm at a tent party with good beer (Southern Tier Tangier gets my approval) and good music, and I'm looping the HRRRX 36 hour forecast and radar over MI and already complaining that the writing is on the wall for that slight risk. The first step is acknowledgment. Here I am pretending I'm 20 running around campus in ITH, when I finally realize I have a problem. I'm at a tent party with good beer (Southern Tier Tangier gets my approval) and good music, and I'm looping the HRRRX 36 hour forecast and radar over MI and already complaining that the writing is on the wall for that slight risk. The first step is acknowledgment. Nice to know I'm not alone lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 IDK why a slight was ever introduced into SNE. I also wonder how much stock is put into models such as the 4km NAM...that hasn't been all that fantastic as of late. I use it more for storm mode than anything but it looked real intense for PA at least the day before and also last week when we had a setup out that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 Interesting. The number of reports probably plays into the verification too. With the population density around here (and good spotter networks) we can get dozens of wind damage reports from 30 knot winds in the summer lol. The nice part about this study it they normalized the "overperforming" events to account for increases and improvements in the spotter network in recent years. So a significant Northeast event in 2011 required more reports than a significant event in 1989. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 IDK why a slight was ever introduced into SNE. I also wonder how much stock is put into models such as the 4km NAM...that hasn't been all that fantastic as of late. I use it more for storm mode than anything but it looked real intense for PA at least the day before and also last week when we had a setup out that way The slight was there for a conditional threat. If we got the warm front to move, it would have been favorable for severe. If we got morning convection, severe was much less likely. You can even see SPC hanging onto slight risk for the morning stuff redeveloping late morning as it heats up. This is an argument for SPC being a little more flexible with outlook updates. They are pretty locked into 1300z, 1630z, 2000z, etc. But if the forecast has changed and you are confident in that, pull the plug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 we are still discussing a bust? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 we are still discussing a bust?This thread will live on forever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 17, 2016 Share Posted June 17, 2016 we are still discussing a bust? Sometimes you can learn the most from them. Plus I'm worried wiz might put the cover on the hot tub, while he's still inside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 18, 2016 Share Posted June 18, 2016 Sometimes you can learn the most from them. Plus I'm worried wiz might put the cover on the hot tub, while he's still inside. That may be an option soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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