moneypitmike Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 Honestly just find a bar LOL. We had a good drenching here, now just clouds and drizzly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 Can only hope this blossoms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 Sun poking through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 Can only hope this blossoms Looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 Lapse rates are a bit weaker than some models had and some warm layer aloft actin as a cap...we'll see why happens. Not overly optimistic too be honest but we'll see. The shear is definitely there...just have to get strong enough updrafts to form Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 Can't just get one fooking good storm...this is bulk****. Always something wrong...always. POS region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 The 18z NAM sounding for Newburgh looks really good except for that inversion above 700mb killing lapse rates and major area of dry air...need stronger forcing. The environment is certainly good enough to produce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 High end MEH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 High end MEH. Same old same old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 High end MEH.good drinking day for Wiz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 good drinking day for Wiz We are headed back to WeHa soon and them getting a couple 40's and pounding them. Fook this POS summer, fool this pattern, fook this EL Nino transitioning to La Niña, fook everything. This garbage summer is going to be even worse than last year and I can't fooking believe that...too have two garbage years back-to-back...FOOK THiS. Can't get anything to do anything today...a great atmosphere...solid instability, great shear but no fooking lift and fooking capping from a garbage inversion near 700mb and **** dry air being drawn in...I mean are you kidding me? And screw these hi-res garbage models...especially the 4km NAM...GARBAGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 This will be your storm: http://weather.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=XTI 0400h western MA 0500h CT-RI-eastern MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 This will be your storm: http://weather.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=XTI 0400h western MA 0500h CT-RI-eastern MA I hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 good drinking day for Wiz It never phails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 I hopeIf you are counting on a line just south of Hudson Bay to make it to CT tonight, you may need more than one 40 to pound down... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 If you are counting on a line just south of Hudson Bay to make it to CT tonight, you may need more than one 40 to pound down... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 Sorry Wiz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 12, 2016 Share Posted June 12, 2016 **** severe!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 It still may screw us. After tomorrow aftn, I don't see a return to another push of warm humid air aloft. This. The forecast submarined reunion weekend plans for Saturday for sure. All outdoor events for Saturday were moved inside (call made Friday evening!). I was extremely skeptical of the SPC outlook given that at 9 PM Friday it was already 48/43 at ITH (dewpoint dropped to 39). Model forecasts were for nearly 70 dewpoints Saturday, and how often does the Northeast see 30 degree dewpoint recoveries the day of an event? So there was a steady stream of met bashing from many alumni chairs, but I did come home with two cases of beer (one of Heady) and two cases of Finger Lakes wine. It wasn't a total bust Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 Honestly just find a bar Also this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 This. The forecast submarined reunion weekend plans for Saturday for sure. All outdoor events for Saturday were moved inside (call made Friday evening!). I was extremely skeptical of the SPC outlook given that at 9 PM Friday it was already 48/43 at ITH (dewpoint dropped to 39). Model forecasts were for nearly 70 dewpoints Saturday, and how often does the Northeast see 30 degree dewpoint recoveries the day of an event? So there was a steady stream of met bashing from many alumni chairs, but I did come home with two cases of beer (one of Heady) and two cases of Finger Lakes wine. It wasn't a total bust Saturday. Nice! The runs later that day started to look a bit better...but it was still really dry....low KI. Was hoping those height falls and rapid increase in shear might muster up a cell or two...but meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 Nice! The runs later that day started to look a bit better...but it was still really dry....low KI. Was hoping those height falls and rapid increase in shear might muster up a cell or two...but meh. A good example for dissecting that SREF sig tor parameter a bit before getting too amped. It may have had 30% contours in CNY, but it was most likely shear dominated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 A good example for dissecting that SREF sig tor parameter a bit before getting too amped. It may have had 30% contours in CNY, but it was most likely shear dominated. I think the local WFOs did a pretty good job with the event too. Even though SPC had the slight risk out a lot of the computer guidance really dried things out above 850mb. I know Hayden and Frank were talking abobut it and the forecast soundings that I saw left a lot to be desired for how the atmosphere would look post midday MCS remnants. This "event" was also a good reminder as why it's so important to look at soundings and not just all these random parameters. Even though there was tremendous shear and decent CAPE we also had an exceptionally dry column sitting above that 850 hpa moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 A lot of the local OCMs were mentioning the chance of some strong tstms with wind/hail etc because SPC had the area in central MA in a slight risk. If it wasn't for SPC graphics, NWS chat and simulated radar....I wonder what some of these people would actually do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 A lot of the local OCMs were mentioning the chance of some strong tstms with wind/hail etc because SPC had the area in central MA in a slight risk. If it wasn't for SPC graphics, NWS chat and simulated radar....I wonder what some of these people would actually do. HRRR was pretty good with showing nothing of consequence past midday MCS. Here's the 00z OKX sounding. Granted it probably looked a bit better around 21z when that storm popped up near the Belmont but powerful shear, nice hodograph, 1000 j/kg of CAPE and a garbage sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 A lot of the local OCMs were mentioning the chance of some strong tstms with wind/hail etc because SPC had the area in central MA in a slight risk. If it wasn't for SPC graphics, NWS chat and simulated radar....I wonder what some of these people would actually do. Most OCMs in New England pretty much defer 100% to SPC and NWS for convection forecasting. They don't for snow but they definitely do for severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 HRRR was pretty good with showing nothing of consequence past midday MCS. Here's the 00z OKX sounding. Granted it probably looked a bit better around 21z when that storm popped up near the Belmont but powerful shear, nice hodograph, 1000 j/kg of CAPE and a garbage sounding. Most OCMs in New England pretty much defer 100% to SPC and NWS for convection forecasting. They don't for snow but they definitely do for severe. Yeah, I know we talked about the risks and even the chance of a cell or two in far western areas...but this definitely had flags with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 Yeah, I know we talked about the risks and even the chance of a cell or two in far western areas...but this definitely had flags with it. Yeah this was about as red flagged a slight risk day as you can get. Meanwhile on Friday down in Philadelphia they had widespread severe wind damage and barely a peep out of SPC. You need to figure out where you can add value to their forecasts and the PHL example was a perfect case. No real outlook, a MD that says meh, yet 100k+ without power and millions of people getting 50 knot gusts. The forecast was a pretty easy one too down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 Yeah this was about as red flagged a slight risk day as you can get. Meanwhile on Friday down in Philadelphia they had widespread severe wind damage and barely a peep out of SPC. You need to figure out where you can add value to their forecasts and the PHL example was a perfect case. No real outlook, a MD that says meh, yet 100k+ without power and millions of people getting 50 knot gusts. The forecast was a pretty easy one too down there. Cold ULL FTW. At least we can do those right in the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 I think the local WFOs did a pretty good job with the event too. Even though SPC had the slight risk out a lot of the computer guidance really dried things out above 850mb. I know Hayden and Frank were talking abobut it and the forecast soundings that I saw left a lot to be desired for how the atmosphere would look post midday MCS remnants. This "event" was also a good reminder as why it's so important to look at soundings and not just all these random parameters. Even though there was tremendous shear and decent CAPE we also had an exceptionally dry column sitting above that 850 hpa moisture. Here I am pretending I'm 20 running around campus in ITH, when I finally realize I have a problem. I'm at a tent party with good beer (Southern Tier Tangier gets my approval) and good music, and I'm looping the HRRRX 36 hour forecast and radar over MI and already complaining that the writing is on the wall for that slight risk. The first step is acknowledgment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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