moneypitmike Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 I'm very skeptical of that happening. I think it could get into extreme western MA and extreme western CT but even with this those areas would have to be watched for isolated severe (including possibility of a supercell/tornado threat) given orientation of the warm front and storm motion along the front. If enough instability manages to push in, hodographs will be quite large given degree of shear (directional/speed). I'm not sure what the chances are but the chance is certainly enough to warrant a mention IMO. (I can't stand typing on an iPhone...hopefully I corrected all the stupid mistakes) Perhaps a Mitch special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 This sounding from the 0z NAM for Allentown, PA is about as good as it gets for around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 This sounding from the 0z NAM for Allentown, PA is about as good as it gets for around here Yeah that's really impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 As far as SNE is concerned, This first disturbance approaching by lunch time will outrun the best instability and be elevated , I'm not expecting anything severe as it crosses our region between 11-2. After that, we will have to monitor the progress of the warm front and any convection that fires along it and how much if any sun and recovery in temps occurs. It would seem far W/SW areas have the best chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 11, 2016 Author Share Posted June 11, 2016 Fair chance that batch just dries up and we are left with a few hours of mid level clouds today before sun comes back out mid afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 Per the BOX update, SPC will be cutting back on the extent of the slight risk area at their update. Wagons south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 Per the BOX update, SPC will be cutting back on the extent of the slight risk area at their update. Wagons south.Sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 Ughh so confused. Thought we would see a boost in the outlook given the soundings last night in PA but no. I guess the simulated radar on the mesos could be a flag but hoping if we go to NE PA they will get into something...latest HRRr kept stuff SW of there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 Ughh so confused. Thought we would see a boost in the outlook given the soundings last night in PA but no. I guess the simulated radar on the mesos could be a flag but hoping if we go to NE PA they will get into something...latest HRRr kept stuff SW of there Who needs severe when you can have another day tomorrow with high winds and temps in the low 60's? What a tremendous start to the met summer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 The HRRR SUCKS for later on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 The HRRR SUCKS for later on Shockingly, another severe threat for SNE down the tubes. Continued COC tomorrow--alhough the progged 40mph gusts will result in a lot of plates getting blown off the Chamber's picnic tables. Potato salad disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 Shockingly, another severe threat for SNE down the tubes. Continued COC tomorrow--alhough the progged 40mph gusts will result in a lot of plates getting blown off the Chamber's picnic tables. Potato salad disaster. Honestly I never really thought much of SNE was in he game...more PA/NY but not it looks more PA and SE NY...but the new 2% TOR only covers SE NY into MA and CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 Shockingly, another severe threat for SNE down the tubes. Continued COC tomorrow--alhough the progged 40mph gusts will result in a lot of plates getting blown off the Chamber's picnic tables. Potato salad disaster. objectively ...it's not really that to be fair. not you per se ...but people need to actually intake all the information before aligning their expecation one way or the other. SPC was pretty clear that the Slight region was lower confidence the whole lead up: .LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO NORTHEAST... CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS CONCERNING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE MAIN UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...A MORE SUBTLE IMPULSE MAY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THROUGH NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTAL AREAS...DURING THE DAY. THIS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY EARLY DAY CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION THAT COULD LIMIT DESTABILIZATION. Until such time when confidence one way or the other is established, ..the basic mechanics were/are in place, so they would have been remiss in their responsibilities if they did not account for that signal. Whether it becomes clearer now that any perceived threat is less for the day at hand, if those uncertainties were taken to heart yesterday and so forth, ..there would be no "disappointment". Personally I still think that a corridor circa 30 or 40 miles SW of ALB to SW CT is still in the game. I fore-see the warm boundary intruding briefly into this region with hybridized EML/pre-warm frontal lift, taking place over top modest insolation (and we don't need much) and SRH that is on the higher side. We'll see how it falls out. Otherwise, agreed with Wiz' - this wasn't really an SNE look in my mind. I wasn't surprised they had us in Slight, but I knew it was more precautionary and lower in confidence just by looking at the synoptics of the thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 4k nam looks interesting for later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 Fair chance that batch just dries up and we are left with a few hours of mid level clouds today before sun comes back out mid afternoonYeah, probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 11, 2016 Author Share Posted June 11, 2016 Yeah, probably.Fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 FailShould be good for the lawn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 About an hour away from Allentown...wondering if we should go back north into SE NY? The mesos seem to like that area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 We are going to turn back NE and go to Newburgh, NY...about 90 min away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 We are going to turn back NE and go to Newburgh, NY...about 90 min awayToo far north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 We are going to turn back NE and go to Newburgh, NY...about 90 min awayYou may wanna come south a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 We are going to turn back NE and go to Newburgh, NY...about 90 min away Try somewhere around NWNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 We are going to turn back NE and go to Newburgh, NY...about 90 min away Yeah if anything the radar is promising showing the MCS laying down its outflow boundary right across our region. Keep an eye out for PA storms forming and moving down along that axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 We are going to turn back NE and go to Newburgh, NY...about 90 min away Honestly just find a bar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 Honestly just find a bar I like this idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 We are just north of the warm front in central NY. 50s and gloom while just a stone's throw away getting into the 80's. I would aim for the triple point where NY, NJ and PA meet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 Honestly just find a barGreat idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 Already got here...staying put Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 Whatever the outcome during the rest of daylight hours Saturday, a significant severe storm threat is developing for southern New England late tonight into Sunday morning from the main cold front which is still back in northeast Ontario but accelerating southeast, looks to me like it's rapidly developing on radar and has a strong thermal gradient (about a 20-25 deg F temp drop associated), should be arriving in western New England around 0300-0500h as squall line or even derecho from upstate NY and eastern ON. After that, could hold together long enough to impact all of sNE around 0500-0800h. Whether storms along front or just a dry passage, very gusty winds likely (check the 500-mb gradient and thickness fall around 12z). I think this feature is underpredicted on models and therefore in most forecasts. Expect gusts to 55 or 60 mph (and possibly higher if severe cells persist, I think the probability of them is 80% in upstate NY, 60% western New England.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 MCD includes SE Ny...60% chance for a watch!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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