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Saturday June 11th MCS/Derecho Discussion


Rtd208

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I don't see one storm or even a shower in that entire watch area right now on radar. That has to be a bit concerning

 

The latest HRRR doesn't show much developing either. Looks as if it's gonna be very isolated. A 20% thunderstorm chance type of afternoon. I'm not getting my hopes up for rain. 

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I would say there's a second chance for a severe storm late overnight or Sunday morning (0500-0800h best) when the main cold front arrives, radar in northeast Ontario shows rapid development and that front is pushing south fast with a lot of support. Would expect it through Albany by 0300h and lying approx POU to ORH by 0600h, through NYC around 0800h. This may become derecho-like for eastern ON, western QC and upstate NY-VT this evening to midnight and then could hold together as a partial squall line to 0800h.

@Roger- Winner of 2016 WSOP?  Good job!

 

I was looking at that but it seems (to me) to be fading and not as sharp as it was a few hours ago.

 

That cell popping over Rockland looks promising but it's moving fast so may not get a chance to really develop.

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Mt Holly  :cry:

 

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Mesoscale update #3 3:30 pm- Higher dewpoints and as a result
higher instability have been slower than modeled to advect into
the region this afternoon. As a result, it appears quite a bit of
the model data is to bullish with overall instability with
realized CAPE likely in the 500-1000 J/KG range for the late
afternoon hours based on the SPC mesoanalysis. This lowers our
confidence and the overall likelihood for any strong to severe
thunderstorms late this afternoon and this evening.

Another limiting factor is a CAP which is stronger the further south
you go. 700 mb temperatures are around 8C across the southern two
thirds parts of the region with increasing CIN as one goes south.
This will prevent thunderstorm formation across most of the region.
It continues to be an all or nothing view waiting on the outflow
boundary to see if sufficient lift for a few thunderstorms is
present late this afternoon.

Any isolated thunderstorms may still produce some localized gusty
winds along with heavy downpours late this afternoon into the
evening.

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@Roger- Winner of 2016 WSOP? Good job!

I was looking at that but it seems (to me) to be fading and not as sharp as it was a few hours ago.

That cell popping over Rockland looks promising but it's moving fast so may not get a chance to really develop.

Rockland?

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This overnight risk won't really show its form until after 03z in my opinion, when the strong northerly gradient behind the front accelerates over Georgian Bay and then Lake Ontario. It may come together rather suddenly over upstate NY and race towards the Hudson valley around 06-09z. Front has passed Timmins ON and winds at Kap are gusting to 45 mph. My prediction is severe storm in NYC region around 10-12z.

 

Check the forward speed of the developing front:

 

http://weather.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=XTI

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