allgame830 Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 Doesnt look good at all You guys are funny!! It's 2:30 let things develop! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 11, 2016 Author Share Posted June 11, 2016 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2016/md0875.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2016/md0875.htmlOh what the heck do they know, the radar doesn't look good. It's over.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 I don't see one storm or even a shower in that entire watch area right now on radar. That has to be a bit concerning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 I don't see one storm or even a shower in that entire watch area right now on radar. That has to be a bit concerning The latest HRRR doesn't show much developing either. Looks as if it's gonna be very isolated. A 20% thunderstorm chance type of afternoon. I'm not getting my hopes up for rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 If things don't start popping over the next couple hours then you could put a big X on this threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 There are storms developing in NE PA and NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 Pouring sun in jersey city Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 I would say there's a second chance for a severe storm late overnight or Sunday morning (0500-0800h best) when the main cold front arrives, radar in northeast Ontario shows rapid development and that front is pushing south fast with a lot of support. Would expect it through Albany by 0300h and lying approx POU to ORH by 0600h, through NYC around 0800h. This may become derecho-like for eastern ON, western QC and upstate NY-VT this evening to midnight and then could hold together as a partial squall line to 0800h. @Roger- Winner of 2016 WSOP? Good job! I was looking at that but it seems (to me) to be fading and not as sharp as it was a few hours ago. That cell popping over Rockland looks promising but it's moving fast so may not get a chance to really develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 If I don't see decent convection in PA by 6 I'll start thinking bust. Until then it's too early to call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 Mt Holly .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...Mesoscale update #3 3:30 pm- Higher dewpoints and as a resulthigher instability have been slower than modeled to advect intothe region this afternoon. As a result, it appears quite a bit ofthe model data is to bullish with overall instability withrealized CAPE likely in the 500-1000 J/KG range for the lateafternoon hours based on the SPC mesoanalysis. This lowers ourconfidence and the overall likelihood for any strong to severethunderstorms late this afternoon and this evening.Another limiting factor is a CAP which is stronger the further southyou go. 700 mb temperatures are around 8C across the southern twothirds parts of the region with increasing CIN as one goes south.This will prevent thunderstorm formation across most of the region.It continues to be an all or nothing view waiting on the outflowboundary to see if sufficient lift for a few thunderstorms ispresent late this afternoon.Any isolated thunderstorms may still produce some localized gustywinds along with heavy downpours late this afternoon into theevening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 @Roger- Winner of 2016 WSOP? Good job! I was looking at that but it seems (to me) to be fading and not as sharp as it was a few hours ago. That cell popping over Rockland looks promising but it's moving fast so may not get a chance to really develop. Rockland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 ^^ Looks like it should be sliding north of Middletown about now, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 ^^ Looks like it should be sliding north of Middletown about now, no? Uh, yeah? Are we talking about the same Rockland? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 oops Sullivan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 It's dead, Jim. At least I got enough rain this morning to fractionally extend the time between garden waterings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 Need the rain here. So hot outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 I'd watch that cell in Northern Sussex County and see what she does. If it can hold together long enough it may reach NYC within a couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 This overnight risk won't really show its form until after 03z in my opinion, when the strong northerly gradient behind the front accelerates over Georgian Bay and then Lake Ontario. It may come together rather suddenly over upstate NY and race towards the Hudson valley around 06-09z. Front has passed Timmins ON and winds at Kap are gusting to 45 mph. My prediction is severe storm in NYC region around 10-12z. Check the forward speed of the developing front: http://weather.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=XTI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 I'd watch that cell in Northern Sussex County and see what she does. If it can hold together long enough it may reach NYC within a couple hours. Nah it fizzled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 This is why you never put derecho in the title of a thread June 11th MCS/Derecho Discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 Pop up cells headed for the city and boroughs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 Need the rain here. So hot outside. Had a strong cell come over an hour ago. Heavy downpours for like 3-4 minutes, the sun even came out during the rain. Extremely humid now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 Pop up cells headed for the city and boroughs.Just missed us smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 This is why you never put derecho in the title of a thread Epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 Pop up cells headed for the city and boroughs. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 Cell went right over me and had heavy rain, a few lightning strikes and gusts to 30mph. Better then nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 Lightning, thunder, rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 Heaviest stuff ended up being about 1 mile west and 1 mile east of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 Heaviest stuff ended up being about 1 mile west and 1 mile east of me. Super super intense in wantagh!!! Rolling thunder constant now this bad boys strengthening!! We had siiick rainbow and I saw some elevated to stating clouds I have a video of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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