Geos Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 The MCS is decaying at a good speed, should Peter out well. I would think this thing would run the table. Plenty of heat and high dew points ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 I would think this thing would run the table. Plenty of heat and high dew points ahead of it. The boundary layer is cooling and shears decreasing. If won't be able to sustain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 I would think this thing would run the table. Plenty of heat and high dew points ahead of it. Nah it is running out of gas, OFB already blowing out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 Just a bit of lightning to the north. I will see if that gust front showing up on KMKX hits me before the Cavs fall behind by ten or more. Edit. It's gonna be so close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 Nah it is running out of gas, OFB already blowing out of it. All of my MCSs have the OFB out ahead, then the garden downpour with racing clouds n scud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 Gust front won. Knocked temps down and stirred up the neighborhood a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 Gust front just arrived here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 4km NAM firing off storms late in the morning tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 11, 2016 Author Share Posted June 11, 2016 Instability looks good tomorrow but shear looks terrible this far west. I think anything more than pulse type severe storms may be hard to come by at least in northern IL/IN etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 Instability looks good tomorrow but shear looks terrible this far west. I think anything more than pulse type severe storms may be hard to come by at least in northern IL/IN etc. Yeah, probably the kind of setup where you get a 60kft severe pulse storm that craps the bed in under 30min. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 Majority of the Slight got removed. Wah, wah, wahhhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwfan40 Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 Epic forecast fail again...sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 Not sure what to think as far as tomorrow locally. Lots of mixed signals. Checking everything again this morning, it's not happening locally. Moving on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajcaras2013 Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 CLE saying that cap might hold everything back, in a "boom or bust" type scenario. But looking at HRRR H7 is 7-8°C and CIN is negative around 18z. With 2 kJ/kg of CAPE and dew pt's in upper 60's wouldn't there be enough to start something going? Probably short lived as others have said but at least its something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 Majority of the Slight got removed. Wah, wah, wahhhh Lower Great Lakes back to marginal risk. Like I said, it is just weird how few slight risks have even existed around there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 11, 2016 Author Share Posted June 11, 2016 Yesterday helped to fill in the lack of reports in the north so far this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 Lower Great Lakes back to marginal risk. Like I said, it is just weird how few slight risks have even existed around there. Only 4 counties in Lower Michigan have been in a watch all season. I would imagine that has to be just about a record low number for June 11th. Not sure I see that changing particularly soon, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 Starting to get convection pop over ne IN in the Warsaw to Fort Wayne area if it doesn't die off. 90/67 here IMBY near Indpls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 And the marginal risk is walked right out of MI. #LOL2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 And the marginal risk is walked right out of MI. #LOL2016 WELCOME TO THE SUCK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 WELCOME TO THE SUCK. It is what it is, considering how the last few summers have gone though it would be nice to have some severe before August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 It is what it is, considering how the last few summers have gone though it would be nice to have some severe before August. I've never been this bored with the weather here as I have in the last two years. If this is the new normal, my interest will likely wane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 New convection now forming north of Fort Dodge IA. Let's see if it can hold its own. KFOD 93/70 Now they are severe warned. Maybe....just maybe......some activity for tonight, but probably pulse severe is the most likely scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 It is what it is, considering how the last few summers have gone though it would be nice to have some severe before August. I know it's asking too much for consistent severe in Michigan, but man, unless 2016 turns around in a hurry, it'll be a long stretch of quiet seasons since 2010. 2013 was pretty good, and 2011 had a couple of high points...but otherwise, yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 Activating sprinkler system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 New convection now forming north of Fort Dodge IA. Let's see if it can hold its own. KFOD 93/70 Now they are severe warned. Maybe....just maybe......some activity for tonight, but probably pulse severe is the most likely scenario. Classic pulse type storm. Basically stationary just dumping on those under it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 Next.. Fail after fail like winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 Next.. Fail after fail like winter. Yeah I don't see any evidence of cumulus building now. By the time the front gets here it will be way too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 I know it's asking too much for consistent severe in Michigan, but man, unless 2016 turns around in a hurry, it'll be a long stretch of quiet seasons since 2010. 2013 was pretty good, and 2011 had a couple of high points...but otherwise, yikes. 2012 was active. July 4th-5th, 2012 was one of the most prolific severe weather event we've seen in the past 10 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 It is what it is, considering how the last few summers have gone though it would be nice to have some severe before August. Can't disagree as far as the bolded. But again, it is what it is. Until we can finally get into a pattern that will allow legitimate death ridges to set up over the region, expectations should be kept in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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