A-L-E-K Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 yeah, MN/WI looks decent today hoping for some isolated fat cape action saturday but no holding my breath Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 Tomorrow afternoon/evening has some potential in Southern Ontario as andyhb mentioned. Looks like a very sticky airmass will be in place, dews in the 70-72 range. 12Z NAM hitting hard with supercell composites yet little forcing for storms. Thinking lake breezes will be the trigger (if any) so this could help keep things isolated. Bulk shear in the 45-50kt range looks nice too. The NAM being the NAM is probably a bit overdone.. showing upwards of 4000 J/kg SBCAPE. Still, even cutting that in half should give us a shot at some severe weather, MAYBE even a tornado or two. Going to need some more model support before I'm fully sold on anything, and with lake breezes you usually need to wait until the short-range models come into play day-of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 10, 2016 Author Share Posted June 10, 2016 1630z outlook still has the enhanced risk in MN/WI but tornado probabilities were lowered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 New Day 2 unchanged in these parts. Let's hope for minimal to no early day convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 Ended up with about 2.5" last night between 11 PM and 4:30 AM. So wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 Just saw this from an hour ago: MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0862 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1202 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND ERN MN...NW WI...NRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 101702Z - 101830Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION. DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT OVER WRN MN EXTENDING SWWD INTO NE SD WITH A 1005 MB LOW OVER SCNTRL MN. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM THE SFC LOW INTO WRN WI WITH SFC WINDS LOCALLY BACKED TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. A MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SFC DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S F. ACCORDING TO MESOSCALE ANALYSIS...A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS LOCATED FROM NEAR THE SFC LOW IN SCNTRL MN EXTENDING SEWD INTO WRN WI. A COUPLE OF LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN CNTRL AND NE MN. THE WRF-HRRR SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AND MOVE EWD ACROSS ERN MN INTO NW WI THIS AFTERNOON. REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR SHOW WIND PROFILES WITH STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT IN THE LOW-LEVELS AND 40 TO 50 KT OF FLOW ABOVE 3 KM. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT AS A LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES THIS AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE MOST LIKELY WITH BOWING SEGMENTS ALONG THE LINE. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CORES EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 4km NAM sets off some discrete cells along the front late tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 This line about to roll through is gonna be weak sauce. The latest HRRR doesn't even really show the current line at all. Models are not doing a good job so far. Let's see if they rebound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 The storms up in the Tornado watch are getting going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 Bust. No lightning, not even enough rain to wet the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 Not sure what to think as far as tomorrow locally. Lots of mixed signals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 Pretty nice patchwork line of severe warnings from the Keweenaw Bay down through Mankato. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 Not sure what to think as far as tomorrow locally. Lots of mixed signals. I agree, I am worried that things might fire on top of us and be severe to our south though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 Nice line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 with the pressure pattern weakening as the front nears late tomorrow afternoon, it seems possible a lake breeze could ignite thunderstorms over the chicago metro that have the potential to interact with frontal convection. greatest threat is probably localized flooding. looks fairly garden variety unless shear is better than forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 18z run of the 4km NAM has the storm around dinner time tomorrow as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 Not sure what to think as far as tomorrow locally. Lots of mixed signals. I'm keeping my expectations low.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 Estherville Iowa AWOS just gusted to 76mph with the tail-end of that line of storms. EDIT: They were at 97 degrees earlier, now back down to 76. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 Estherville Iowa AWOS just gusted to 76mph with the tail-end of that line of storms. EDIT: They were at 97 degrees earlier, now back down to 76. Could be a microburst? VIL dropped significantly as it occurred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 Could be a microburst? VIL dropped significantly as it occurred. To the northeast of there at Dolliver an emergency manager estimated 70mph winds. Looks like some pretty impressive downburst action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 Nice lineWonder when she'll peter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 Models kill it p quick south of madison, u might see scraps up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 The southern part of the line seems to be weakening, while the northern part is peaking. For people with high hopes for tomorrow, hope this thing dies quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 Lol it won't have any effect on tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 Did not expect to see these storms charge this far south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 Did not expect to see these storms charge this far south... Same. Expected them to move more ESE/SE, but they seem to have taken a turn and are moving SSE. Maybe we'll get some rain after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 The southern part of the line seems to be weakening, while the northern part is peaking. For people with high hopes for tomorrow, hope this thing dies quickly. I don't really have high hopes for tomorrow. Gut feeling says these fire right over me and miss out to the south. It seems to be a common occurrence in these parts. We blow up storms and hand them off to Canada or Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mogget Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 Wind just picked up here near Albany. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 Same. Expected them to move more ESE/SE, but they seem to have taken a turn and are moving SSE. Maybe we'll get some rain after all. It's not going to be too strong when it gets here, but some rain nonetheless. Down into the 60s under the stratiform rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 The MCS is decaying at a good speed, should Peter out well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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