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June 9-11 Severe/Heavy Rain Threats


Hoosier

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Saturday synoptically looks rather interesting for the southern Ontario/upstate NY folks. Very strong shortwave diving SE providing plenty of deep layer shear with westerly low level moisture advection leading to increasing instability and some half-decent lapse rates. Any southwesterly component to the surface winds would likely increase tornado potential as well.

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Saturday synoptically looks rather interesting for the southern Ontario/upstate NY folks. Very strong shortwave diving SE providing plenty of deep layer shear with westerly low level moisture advection leading to increasing instability and some half-decent lapse rates. Any southwesterly component to the surface winds would likely increase tornado potential as well.

Problem will be lack of forcing, but we will see.

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probably setting up from msn to jvl to rfd to western chicago metro. this is based on 850 frontogenesis lining up with the edge of the EML/most unstable CAPE. with time the activity should trend more southerly rather than southeasterly. will be a close call for heart of chicago metro, but leaning towards western portions at this time.

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Probably too cool here for anything severe, but getting some pretty good downpours in the last half hour.

Impressive rainfall rates here too and it keeps backbuilding. These setups always make me nervous. Looks like it's targeting the progged corridor after all.

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Impressive rainfall rates here too and it keeps backbuilding. These setups always make me nervous. Looks like it's targeting the progged corridor after all.

 

I think the ground can take a good inch or maybe two before problems arise. Pretty heavy rates out in Jefferson and Rock counties right now.

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I think the ground can take a good inch or maybe two before problems arise. Pretty heavy rates out in Jefferson and Rock counties right now.

I'd bet we just got that inch down here over the past 30 minutes. Edit: radar confirms it and then some

Quite a light show and big deep boomers on top of it

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No kidding, some supercells around 09- 12Z this morning and it has imitation on Saturday. 

I'm not really paying attention to the simulated radar. It seems kinda off. But I clicked on a few points of that run of the environment just before the cold front plows through.

 

Here's DTW

post-5974-0-75002900-1465535821_thumb.pn

 

And here's one near Flint.

post-5974-0-31484500-1465535873_thumb.pn

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