Hoosier Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 Should have daily chances for severe weather. Saturday looks like the best potential day as of now as wind fields aloft tend to increase and SPC has had that day outlooked for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 thursday looking solid over north central IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 Continues to look like a local chase on Thursday. Love these setups with a NW-SE oriented boundary with NW flow aloft, great directional shear and slow moving storms. Seems like we get these a few times a summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 7, 2016 Author Share Posted June 7, 2016 Continues to look like a local chase on Thursday. Love these setups with a NW-SE oriented boundary with NW flow aloft, great directional shear and slow moving storms. Seems like we get these a few times a summer I'd like to have stronger flow in general but I suppose it could work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 I'd like to have stronger flow in general but I suppose it could work. Still getting close to 40kts of shear. Enough for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 Couldn't agree more. The perfect amount of shear to keep things isolated and slow moving. These kind of events always tend to over perform in the IL/IW/IA area so I will 100% be taking a gamble on it. Continues to look like a local chase on Thursday. Love these setups with a NW-SE oriented boundary with NW flow aloft, great directional shear and slow moving storms. Seems like we get these a few times a summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 Couldn't agree more. The perfect amount of shear to keep things isolated and slow moving. These kind of events always tend to over perform in the IL/IW/IA area so I will 100% be taking a gamble on it. I always feels like Iowa busts , there probably isn't any statistical backing of that, but I still feel that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 West of Oregon, IL in the jungles of NW IL on Thursday off the 4km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 Should see an MCS of some sorts across the N MN into the Great Lakes Friday night with some weak Pacific energy riding a top the ridge and that potent shortwave dropping through Ontario. Likely right turning too (possibly hard right) with instability axis over S MN into WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 West of Oregon, IL in the jungles of NW IL on Thursday off the 4km NAM west of oregon.png Sweet, gives me enough time to finish work, eat supper, and take a leisurely drive north a county or two and bag. In all seriousness a pretty interesting (conditional) NW flow setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 Sweet, gives me enough time to finish work, eat supper, and take a leisurely drive north a county or two and bag. In all seriousness a pretty interesting (conditional) NW flow setup. The sub relies on you for severe weather capping porn cyclone lol. Your lapse videos are incredible dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 Should see an MCS of some sorts across the N MN into the Great Lakes Friday night with some weak Pacific energy riding a top the ridge and that potent shortwave dropping through Ontario. Likely right turning too (possibly hard right) with instability axis over S MN into WI. That possibility doesn't look all that great to me around here, but I'm just hoping for one severe element. Hail, wind, whatever. It's been an incredibly slow start to the severe season here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 The 4km NAM doesn't want to convect until late Thursday evening, but the setup still holds some potential given the shear/instability overlay. I'm planning to chase both Thursday and Saturday up in the region. Should be fun to have chase opportunities away from the Plains, as there won't be excessive chaser convergence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 That possibility doesn't look all that great to me around here, but I'm just hoping for one severe element. Hail, wind, whatever. It's been an incredibly slow start to the severe season here. Yup, not sold on anything for the TC but the potential looks a lot better than a couple days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 Is this type of setup favorable for a derecho? It is this time of year for it... It has been crossing my mind on this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 8, 2016 Share Posted June 8, 2016 I'm getting a bit excited about this Friday and Saturday. SPC and Forbes have Saturday's event staying just to my northeast, but I feel I'm in a good position due to how far out we are and how unpredictable MCS's are. I don't think I'd be feeling good if I was in the bullseye for Saturday's event right now. ILN had a good writeup. Stoked some optimism for me. On Saturday, primarily dry conditions are expected during themorning hours. Winds pick up during the day on Saturday and expecta decent amount of sunshine especially across the south. Havetemperatures climbing into the upper 80s to low 90s across theregion. The cooler temperatures are across northern and easternportions of the forecast area where expect thunderstorm developmentearlier in the afternoon. There is some model uncertainty on wherethunderstorm development will be Saturday afternoon and into theevening hours. Have some concern that some of the models that havethe current placement further east are a little too displaced andthat the system will make a little more of a right turn and moveinto the higher instability area across the forecast area. CIPSanalogs show a pattern consistent for the potential for severeweather across the region. If thunderstorm development does developand move into the area Saturday afternoon and evening there will bethe potential for severe weather. Damaging winds will be theprimarily threat. SPC already has the northeast portions of theregion in a risk for Saturday and believe at this time the northeastacross central Ohio does have a greater severe threat. Increasedprecipitation chances during this time, however for collaborationpurposes and with some uncertainty still, decided to limitprecipitation chances to the higher chance category. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoistWx Posted June 8, 2016 Share Posted June 8, 2016 I've had some really bad luck with storms this year. Almost everything has either missed or split me. The last good storm that even had some decent lightning in it was on Christmas Eve, of all times. So, I'm definitely hoping I at least get something decent this weekend. I'd imagine more of an MCS setup is likely, but GFS is showing a non-zero tornado threat in central Ohio late Saturday. Definitely will be watching how this evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted June 8, 2016 Share Posted June 8, 2016 Look at this being advertised by the 0z NAM for Friday Night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 8, 2016 Share Posted June 8, 2016 Look at this being advertised by the 0z NAM for Friday Night... Pushes into Pennsylvania by 12z. I'd imagine that'd be a good thing for Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted June 8, 2016 Share Posted June 8, 2016 Have to monitor it for potential right turning as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 8, 2016 Share Posted June 8, 2016 The problem with MCS's is they are so hard to predict, that one on the NAM could hit PA, go south into the rest of MI or turn right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted June 8, 2016 Share Posted June 8, 2016 Cautiously optimistic about my chances here. NAM solution (lol) would look relatively good for Saturday afternoon. MCS potential the days beforehand also looks pretty good. Of course, we'll probably see debris and ruined potential like always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 8, 2016 Share Posted June 8, 2016 GFS doesn't look bad considering it's probably not handling the morning convection and clouds correctly, as well as usually being the coolest/least humid model. The speed and directional shear are pretty damn decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 8, 2016 Share Posted June 8, 2016 GFS doesn't look bad considering it's probably not handling the morning convection and clouds correctly, as well as usually being the coolest/least humid model. The speed and directional shear are pretty damn decent. This has everyone cautiously optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted June 8, 2016 Share Posted June 8, 2016 I am trying to chase either Thursday in IL or Saturday in OH or IN. Pros or cons to both days. For Thursday, I'm already scheduled to have the day off...for Saturday, I need to decide by about 2PM Wednesday whether or not I want to request the day off. For Saturday, yes the speed shear looks stronger over OH than over IL on Thursday, but it looks like we'll have to contend with some sort of MCS, and that immediately gives me pause. If we had a strong LLJ to facilitate rapid recovery and eye-popping hodos behind the MCS I wouldn't care about it (such as 7/13/15 and perhaps a better example 6/22/15...though I didn't chase 6/22), but we don't so the MCS potential gives me pause...and I don't want to request off work for a setup that I'm just luke-warm on (at best). I also don't like the jet streak arriving very late on Saturday. If the MCS wasn't an issue, I wouldn't be worried and would trust the front to fire convection on its own as there doesn't look to be a ton of capping. There is some disagreement for Saturday as well, with the Euro and Canadian keeping the better shear farther northeast. For Thursday, I feel confident in moderate to strong instability building over IL. Bulk speed shear looks weaker but still sufficient at 35-40 knots, and low level turning looks good on the GFS and NAM. There isn't a strong upper level forcing mechanism moving in on Thursday, but there isn't a ton of CINH on forecast soundings, so isolated to widely scattered convection seems likely to develop by 0z in IL. Given the lack of stronger forcing, discrete supercells may be the preferred storm mode for a few hours, with enough low level shear and favorable LCLs for tornadoes. Because I already have Thursday off, I'm leaning towards chancing that, assuming the threat continues to look OK in IL. I don't see this being a high-end threat, but maybe a day where there are a couple or few supercells with a couple tornadoes, before things maybe grow into a bit of an MCS by late evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 8, 2016 Share Posted June 8, 2016 GFS shifted the t-storm activity slightly farther north. Probably means it is a lock for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 8, 2016 Author Share Posted June 8, 2016 New day 2 outlook still has a marginal risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 8, 2016 Share Posted June 8, 2016 New day 2 outlook still has a marginal risk.A tiny bit surprised.Anyways, I just looked at the 0Z in depth and noticed an okay chance for some Severe storms Friday during the day, as well as the fact instability ticked up up north in a more southeasterly pattern, and assuming the MCS rides the instability axis we could see some dramatic shifts on where the MCS is progged to go the next few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted June 8, 2016 Share Posted June 8, 2016 New day 2 outlook still has a marginal risk.Seems reasonable. Not much ascent, so storm coverage is questionable. But I have to think if a couple storms go they could be nice. Wonder if a lake breeze running into the WF may provide enough focus just south of Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 8, 2016 Share Posted June 8, 2016 GFS shifted the t-storm activity slightly farther north. Probably means it is a lock for this area. back south these subtle shortwaves are hard to pick up at range and always end up reinforcing the boundary further south, so i'd hedge on it being even further south than this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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