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Wednesday 6/8 Cold Pool Thunderstorm Potential


bluewave

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Mostly C/S NJ:

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0843   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   1050 AM CDT WED JUN 08 2016   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN NJ   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY    VALID 081550Z - 081645Z   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG GUSTS /40-55 MPH/ VIA HORIZONTAL MOMENTUM   TRANSPORT WILL ACCOMPANY THE GUST FRONT/STRONG DOWNBURSTS.  POCKETS   OF VEGETATION/WIND DAMAGE MAY RESULT.   DISCUSSION...A LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BAND IS MOVING EWD   AROUND 35 KT AND IS PROJECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE AROUND 1730Z.  THIS   STRONGLY FORCED TSTM BAND IS ON CUSP OF AND/IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A   VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM /DCVA/ MOVING RAPIDLY EWD   THROUGH ERN PA INTO NJ DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  DESPITE TEMPS IN   THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AND A DEARTH OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE   /DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50 DEG F/...VERY WEAK BUOYANCY /100 J   PER KG MLCAPE/ IS COLOCATED WITH 30-40 KT FLOW AROUND H7 AND IS   MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE FOR STRONGER GUSTS.  THIS NOTION IS CONFIRMED   VIA THE KBWI OBSERVATION AROUND 15Z WITH A MEASURED GUST OF 43 KT.    OTHER OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE LOWER DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY HAVE BEEN   GENERALLY LESS THAN 30 KT...INDICATIVE THE THREAT FOR STRONGER WINDS   WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOCALIZED BUT POCKETS OF 35-55 MPH MAY BE   REALIZED AND RESULT IN VEGETATION/WIND DAMAGE FOR THE NEXT 1-2   HOURS.   ..SMITH/DIAL.. 06/08/2016   ATTN...WFO...PHI...   LAT...LON   39437541 40447448 40467392 39557416 39157473 39197514               39437541 
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How are those models failing? You can't just look at pretty colors on a model and think because it shows a lot of red it means severe weather. The vast majority of the area will see some decently heavy rains.

Because they missed the heavy stuff in central and south jersey while the radar clearly had the focus further south

 

This does not look like reality

 

nam4km_ref_frzn_neus_5.png

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Because they missed the heavy stuff in central and south jersey while the radar clearly had the focus further south

 

This does not look like reality

 

nam4km_ref_frzn_neus_5.png

No, the line down south is stronger but much thinner. Up here it's a larger area of heavy rain.

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