ineedsnow Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 Tomorrow afternoon looks like it could be fun. Spc held off on a slight risk but the discussion mentioned a possible upgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 24 hour lag teleconnector with GL applies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 Tomorrow afternoon looks like it could be fun. Spc held off on a slight risk but the discussion mentioned a possible upgrade. And the watch will come out after we've started to issue warnings. 24 hour lag teleconnector with GL applies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 GFS and NAM very different with boundary layer moisture. That will be the key down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 GFS and NAM very different with boundary layer moisture. That will be the key down this way. We could really use some low 60s dewpoints up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 We could really use some low 60s dewpoints up here. it looks like this is a mechanical forcing event... obviously we want the juicy cape for the green-blue house bomb lightning bolts and UVM cores that can tighten updrafts and so forth, ... but, we could end up with meso bows with that linear shear look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 it looks like this is a mechanical forcing event... obviously we want the juicy cape for the green-blue house bomb lightning bolts and UVM cores that can tighten updrafts and so forth, ... but, we could end up with meso bows with that linear shear look. Yeah, the really cold H5 temps will help us get enough CAPE for storms anyway. But higher dews would make for a more substantial event given the forcing you mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 Loving all the dew love! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 It's early, but the weekend looks to have another duesy of a threat: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 It's early, but the weekend looks to have another duesy of a threat: More snow for the peaks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 GFS and NAM very different with boundary layer moisture. That will be the key down this way. Hey get on JAX for that awful, awful LSR of wind damage when it was clearly a tornado from outer bands of Colin, complete with a TDS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 Does anyone keep track of how often the SPC puts us in slight, enhanced, moderate or high risk? I know enhanced is new. Probably never have had a high risk but I wonder if a day like the Worcester tornado setup would have put us in high for that afternoon. Anyone keep records? I have not looked at teh SPC site in detail maybe its on there somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 Does anyone keep track of how often the SPC puts us in slight, enhanced, moderate or high risk? I know enhanced is new. Probably never have had a high risk but I wonder if a day like the Worcester tornado setup would have put us in high for that afternoon. Anyone keep records? I have not looked at teh SPC site in detail maybe its on there somewhere. I'm sure there are GIS methods to do this, but you could also search each day's outlook back to 2003. Or search severe events back to 2000 by state and see if they were included in an outlook. Regarding high risks, the closest we've come is May 1998 with western zones getting clipped. For a tornado environment I would say it's nearly impossible. I don't think our coverage would ever get high enough in New England to qualify, so it would have to be some well organized derecho type event to get a high. 6/1/11 is as close as you'll get to 1953, and that got us a moderate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 I'm sure there are GIS methods to do this, but you could also search each day's outlook back to 2003. Or search severe events back to 2000 by state and see if they were included in an outlook. Regarding high risks, the closest we've come is May 1998 with western zones getting clipped. For a tornado environment I would say it's nearly impossible. I don't think our coverage would ever get high enough in New England to qualify, so it would have to be some well organized derecho type event to get a high. 6/1/11 is as close as you'll get to 1953, and that got us a moderate. The 6/6/10 tornado watch probs argued for something very close to high risk and the results probably precluded it henceforth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 18z GFS looks more bullish. Much closer to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 The 6/6/10 tornado watch probs argued for something very close to high risk and the results probably precluded it henceforth. Given that they've created enhanced now as an extra category so that moderates aren't issued as much, I imagine high risks around here will be even more rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 18z GFS looks more bullish. Much closer to the NAM. I mean the jet forcing isn't a concern. But it's nice to see modeled 0-4km theta-e lapse rates at or better than 4K/km. 18z NAM actually is quite a bit more robust with surface theta-e. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 18z models (GFS/NAM) like the not mixing as much! However, this means for SW Sfc flow with limits helicity and any isolated TOR potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 Setting up in Ayer, MA tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanjn Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 I think tomorrow will be the kind of day where storms form in southern NH early and we get southwest upstream development and storms start rotating a bit once they are about 10-15 miles of the north shore coast. I think first batch will be semi linear with a few kinks in the line right over 495, around the Lowell, MA area. A secondary scattering of storms will prob form a bit farther SW along or just north of the Mass Pike, and will push ESE toward the MA/CT/RI line late afternoon-early eve. If storms for a bit later than HIRES models are showing, and a bit farther west toward the CT River Valley, I think that will give more time for destabilization in eastern MA and stronger storms. If not the severe threat will prob be confined to immediate coastal areas. Best low level wind shear appears to be earlier in the day, so these type of storms that hit the north shore of MA often pick up a bit of rotation especially if they hit a sea breeze like we've seen June 2 2007, July 18 2012, July 1 2015 are a few that come to mind where storms formed in the early afternoon and had Tor Warnings in NE MA. Somewhat cold 500mb temps and moderate instability will produce some 1in - 1.5in hail in a strong cell or two. Maybe even a funnel cloud or wall cloud. I'm gonna try and do some chasing between Peobody, MA and Newburyport, MA. Ipswich area usually gets wrecked with these "see text" events. Here's a map I drew a few hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 Given how strong the forcing/wind fields are aloft, it should be the type of day that has no problem with getting storms to the coast at full strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 Ryanjn you just nailed my thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 Congrats wizzer on the slight risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 may be pinned ... talk of the town in an otherwise dearth of interesting weather. the castellanus cloud types are interesting ... bases 10K and then domes poking above at sunrise typically does herald a day of instability - mlv lapse rates are exposed. nice linear event potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 1) nice to see > 40kts of bulk shear nosing into MA 2) good lapse rates in the lower atmosphere, lousy higher up 3) DCAPE may be the story... up the wind probs, drop the hail probs? NVM this one 4) Fierce U/L jet may have updrafts saying "we're not worthy!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 I guess our turn will be tomorrow. Hope you guys get some good storms for wiz sake lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 Based on just this, best stuff NE CT Woodstock to SESNH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted June 7, 2016 Author Share Posted June 7, 2016 Today could really be fun sun is already out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 Have good feelings for later. Full sunshine destabilizing things nicely, dewy air; I was dripping like a brisket in the smoker on my jog this a.m. Giddy up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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