Summer in the Tennessee Valley

[John1122]

00z GFS says nothing much going on, Canadian and Euro are very similar with a landfall around the Florida/Alabama line. CMC gives 3-5 inches of rain for most East of the Plateau.

[jaxjagman]

[Carvers Gap]

Well, the 12z model suite is proving to be pretty interesting.  No huge tropical impacts here, though models have trended west - especially the UKMET and CMC.  The 4K NAM @ 48...I know it isn't right, but crazy.  

[jaxjagman]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Well, the 12z model suite is proving to be pretty interesting.  No huge tropical impacts here, though models have trended west - especially the UKMET and CMC.  The 4K NAM @ 48...I know it isn't right, but crazy.  

lol..yeah ,NAM4k looks like convective feedback at it's finest

[Carvers Gap]

12z Euro is a wee bit stronger....

[Carvers Gap]

Quiet around here.  Still looks hot for the near future.  Hate to see WxSouth closing its doors so to speak.  Battle of Bristol this weekend.  Still looks like fall wx is still several weeks away.  Though, a few sporadic GFS runs do depict some cooler wx later in its model run.  Edit: 0z Euro does hint at a break in the heat d9-10.

[nrgjeff]

Though still hot this week, humidity is noticeably lower and on the decline for the season. Lower sun angle also takes the edge off midday. Overall, despite much warmer than normal temps, I notice significantly more comfortable weather.

My biggest complaint now is below normal rainfall. Situation looks to continue deep into fall. I had wanted to see the yard rebound before the fall slumber, but oh well. Yeah, I'm ready for some football!

[Carvers Gap]

Just took a quick look at the GEFS and Euro at 12z.  Warm with some pleasant days mixed in.   Still looking for that first real shot of cool wx.

[nrgjeff]

Hopefully the 90 degree heat is over. Chattanooga shattered the previous 2010 record of 95 days. 2016 racked up 101 days at/above 90! TRI also crushed the 2010 record of 55 days with 62 in 2016. Knoxville came 2 shy of the 78 from 1936, another hot year. Data is from an MRX Facebook post perhaps many already saw. I added Sunday.

Also 2016 was the second hottest June through August period behind 2010. Remember 2010 had more record highs and 100s. Frankly I feel the consistent misery this year was worse.

Yes the -NAO was a heat contributor for the Southeast. Basically the cool signal is up the Midwest or even Canada, leaving hot ridging in the South. (See John next post)

However we made it to the first real fall front today!

[John1122]

The negative NAO aided greatly in the hot summer. It was also negative most of summer 2010. Negative NAO usually spells hot weather in the Southeast in summer. The million dollar question will be, does the -NAO return during the winter months for an extended stay like it did in 2010/2011 or does it go on hiatus like it has ever winter since then?