Summer in the Tennessee Valley

[nrgjeff]

Indeed 100 verified from Chattanooga to Huntsville and a few other points in July. Hopefully soon we will have more than just heat to discuss.

Today looks like a small but nice thunderstorm cluster moving down I-24 toward Nashville. At times it had a spearhead appearance in Kentucky, but does not look that tight in Tenn. Still the storms should include some gusty winds and will likely be fun to watch up there. If possible please post shelfies!

[NWNC2015]

EURO sending you guys something.

[jaxjagman]

Believe what the GFS shows than the Euro long range.though the Euro might not really be that far off.There should be a ridge centered around the Valley around the 18-20.Good news is we are headed into Sept.if you wanna call that good news

[Windspeed]

The northern and northeastern Tennessee valley has been fortunate. Yes, it has been hot and muggy. But those areas have also received decent doses of rain every few days to counter any drought conditions experienced during late Spring, early Summer. Perhaps prolonged rainy days would be more beneficial, but our creeks and tributaries are hardly dry branches right now.

Looking at model guidance, very promising that a mid-to-upper low feature will park over the Gulf coast region this week and really turn on the faucet for the southern, southeastern Valley and Southern Appalachians, as well as the majority of the Southeast. Though it doesn't look to precede any surface tropical feature, a lot of moisture gets advected out of the eastern Gulf and northwestern Caribbean. Some of those totals look like the workings of a stalled tropical cyclone. Could be a real big drought buster for those areas if not increased flood potential.

[jaxjagman]

1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

The northern and northeastern Tennessee valley has been fortunate. Yes, it has been hot and muggy. But those areas have also received decent doses of rain every few days to counter any drought conditions experienced during late Spring, early Summer. Perhaps prolonged rainy days would be more beneficial, but our creeks and tributaries are hardly dry branches right now.

Looking at model guidance, very promising that a mid-to-upper low feature will park over the Gulf coast region this week and really turn on the faucet for the southern, southeastern Valley and Southern Appalachians, as well as the majority of the Southeast. Though it doesn't look to precede any surface tropical feature, a lot of moisture gets advected out of the eastern Gulf and northwestern Caribbean. Some of those totals look like the workings of a stalled tropical cyclone. Could be a real big drought buster for those areas if not increased flood potential.

Yeah some crazy rains from the gulf coast to the big bend,18"+ possible on todays 12z Euro.Euro shows some possible 4"+ for you guys in the east like you mentioned.Some decent 850mb winds 45-50kts Sat into Sunday for you guys to our east.

[jaxjagman]

Tried to get most of the Valley in,but the euro shows parts of Fl getting around 22",it's a jumbled mess so it's hard to actually see it

[tnweathernut]

17 hours ago, Windspeed said:

The northern and northeastern Tennessee valley has been fortunate. Yes, it has been hot and muggy. But those areas have also received decent doses of rain every few days to counter any drought conditions experienced during late Spring, early Summer. Perhaps prolonged rainy days would be more beneficial, but our creeks and tributaries are hardly dry branches right now.

Looking at model guidance, very promising that a mid-to-upper low feature will park over the Gulf coast region this week and really turn on the faucet for the southern, southeastern Valley and Southern Appalachians, as well as the majority of the Southeast. Though it doesn't look to precede any surface tropical feature, a lot of moisture gets advected out of the eastern Gulf and northwestern Caribbean. Some of those totals look like the workings of a stalled tropical cyclone. Could be a real big drought buster for those areas if not increased flood potential.

Evidently, I have moved to the desert of the Tri-Cities. (between Boones Creek and Gray)  Precip keeps splitting me.  I have healthy cells coming right at me and they never make it before dying, then redevelop just to my east.  Guessing I am getting downsloped.  Hoping we get some healthy rains in east TN from this setup.  Looks like a good one (potentially).

[dwagner88]

Still waiting on the first drop of rain here. Haven't had any since last Tuesday. 

[Stovepipe]

I've had really bad luck getting rain at my location.  There have been several torrential downpours that have moved through the majority of Knox county but nary a drop at my house out west.  Been trying to keep the food gardens watered but plants are struggling, a mountain laurel bush didn't survive.  We had an epic thunderstorm last Thursday evening around midnight which I was thankful for but generally good storms have been almost as rare here as snow in the winter.  I'm over summer, bring on the cooler weather.

[Knoxtron]

I am right there with you Stovepipe here in Louisville TN, just cant seem to luck out and get any good storms. I have right at 10 inches recorded for June 1 to today at my house, but of that, 7 inches came in the first 5 days of June and 2.5" came from one storm on June 3rd. 

 

According to the SouthEast Regional Climate Center (http://www.sercc.com/) for the period of June 1 to August 8th for Mghee Tyson (146 years of record) we are at the 4th warmest average daily temp, 3rd warmest min average temp, and 9th warmest maximum average temp. We are also tied for third on days that got above 85 for the summer. The most telling data (and the one I think we all feel the most) is that we are tied for 3rd for the least amount of days that get below 70 in the morning (36 days below 70 for the summer, 146 year average says we should have nearly 56 days). 

We've also shattered the previous record for any 12 month (Aug 8 2015 to Aug 8 2016) period with days that temps never get below 50. Previous record was 161 days for 1883-1884 & 1931-1932 at 161 days that we got below 50. We have had 155 days in the past 12 months that we got below 50

Moral of the story, this summer/year has sucked  ... then again, it is the south east, so maybe I shouldn't complain haha? 

[nrgjeff]

19 hours ago, dwagner88 said:

Still waiting on the first drop of rain here. Haven't had any since last Tuesday. 

Wow, that's brutal. We got a good one on Monday and I thought you are pretty close. This summer, blocks matter. We got missed by literally 3 blocks 4-5 times over a two week period. Finally, it rained.

[John1122]

50 minutes ago, Knoxtron said:

I am right there with you Stovepipe here in Louisville TN, just cant seem to luck out and get any good storms. I have right at 10 inches recorded for June 1 to today at my house, but of that, 7 inches came in the first 5 days of June and 2.5" came from one storm on June 3rd. 

 

According to the SouthEast Regional Climate Center (http://www.sercc.com/) for the period of June 1 to August 8th for Mghee Tyson (146 years of record) we are at the 4th warmest average daily temp, 3rd warmest min average temp, and 9th warmest maximum average temp. We are also tied for third on days that got above 85 for the summer. The most telling data (and the one I think we all feel the most) is that we are tied for 3rd for the least amount of days that get below 70 in the morning (36 days below 70 for the summer, 146 year average says we should have nearly 56 days). 

We've also shattered the previous record for any 12 month (Aug 8 2015 to Aug 8 2016) period with days that temps never get below 50. Previous record was 161 days for 1883-1884 & 1931-1932 at 161 days that we got below 50. We have had 155 days in the past 12 months that we got below 50

Moral of the story, this summer/year has sucked  ... then again, it is the south east, so maybe I shouldn't complain haha? 

All those records could be true, but I'm just not sure any more. There has been too much downward manipulation of past data by NOAA to take some of these heat records seriously.  It's been, in my area, a temperate summer with only a few days of what I'd call extreme heat. Which is above 93 here, it rarely eclipses that at my house, we had two days at 96 this summer.

[Carvers Gap]

37 minutes ago, John1122 said:

All those records could be true, but I'm just not sure any more. There has been too much downward manipulation of past data by NOAA to take some of these heat records seriously.  It's been, in my area, a temperate summer with only a few days of what I'd call extreme heat. Which is above 93 here, it rarely eclipses that at my house, we had two days at 96 this summer.

Gonna have to ride w/ John1122 on this one.  This summer has been warm here, but not over the top by any means.  Many days in the low 90s, but I can think of at least one summer in the late 80s that was much worse.  Snow data at KTRI is not even close for several years in the 90s.  I look at the data monthly during the winter.  I have screenshots of my conversations w/ MRX when I caught them manipulating the data...they reduced (in some cases have no data at all) snow totals for the winter of 95-96.   Also, they reduced the all-time record if I remember correctly.  Said they lost the data.  I provided them screenshots of the missing data from other NOAA/NWS sources.  They said those sources were not reliable..even though those graphics were created by govt agencies connected to them.  I used to believe that data manipulation was tin foil hat stuff...I saw w/ my own eyes the data manipulation and the refusal to correct the mistakes once the data was found. 

I do think what makes the heat this summer impressive is the duration...folks, no denying it is hot.  I have experienced much worse.  There are some hints that in the very long range, North America may cool to more tolerable levels.  Some may call that "fall."  But either way, it will be welcomed.  My early thoughts on winter are slightly drier than normal.  Slightly warmer than normal w/ extremes in both directions for cold.  Maybe some very cold air intruding.  Will take some time to get rid of the latent Nino heat in the Northern Hemisphere.  So, I could see the winter of 2017-18 being a very good one.  But this winter I am banking on a weak La Nina(which normally would be cold) balanced by latent Nino heat in the northern hemisphere.  Let us not forget that solar activity IMO has been a big trump card during the past few winters.  As we head towards a solar min after a very weak max...have to think solar activity(or lack of it) could be a big player.

[Carvers Gap]

DT w some good thougts about the upcoming winter.  Again, the upcoming winter looks better for those who like winter, especially when compared to those strong Nina forecasts from earlier this year.  Not great, but better than the torch idea.   Way to early to speculate on snow chances...but the graphics DT put up would favor the western end of the TN Valley, maybe even middle TN.  The only fly in the ointment w weak Ninas in E TN that seems to get in the way of decent chances(off the top of my head)...just a bit too dry.  Seems like we get our cold chances during weak Ninas, but dry cold due to the weak Nina.  Now, some may argue that weak Ninas have grown progressively wetter west of the Apps.  We will see...

https://www.wxrisk.com/1st-speculation-of-winter-2016-2017/

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

John1122, what do your family's climate records show for weak Ninas?  I am guessing you might like that set up on the northern Plateau.

[John1122]

Looking back the 2000-01 winter was not great, it snowed one day in November and about 6 inches in Early December then winter wasn't much to speak of after, and  2011-2012 was a very bad winter for snow lovers in these parts. 84-85 was a weak Nina, as was 95-96. Both were very snowy, two of the most legendary winters for Tennessee. Both featured -20s here for the coldest low temps. 74-75 had about half an inch in November then a pretty wintry December/January with 15 or so inches here and it got warm in February, there was another 4 inches of snow between March 1st and 9th, there was even a ground whitener in April.  In 71-72 it snowed 3 times in November enough to cover the ground, but December was warm and it only snowed one day in the month, there was only 2 inches of snow in January and it got below 0 at -6 one morning, with lots of mild weather after. February of 72 had 11 inches of snow, March was up and down and we had a late snow of 3 inches on the 25th.  67-68 had about an inch in November, 10 inches in December, 9 in January, 6 in February and 4 in March.  November of 64 started off very warm but turned cold towards the end of the month with some teens for lows, we had 3/4ths of an inch of snow on November 30th. December only had .5 inches of snow, it was 6 degrees on the 18th and 66 on Christmas eve. January 65 started warm then turned colder and colder. It was warm for 10 days, cold for 10 with a -2 low in there. Then warm for 6 days, then turned really cold with -6 by the 31st. 8 inches of snow for the month, pretty spread out over 3 events. February started cold, 6 inches of snow on the 1st, -8 and -7 on the 2nd and 3rd. Warmed up through mid-month, it was nearly 70 a week after -7. Another cold shot hit late month, had some lows in the single digits and got 7 more inches of snow, 2 inches on the 21st/22nd, and 5 on the 25th. March was amazing in 65, we'd have 60s, then cold and snowy weather. It snowed every day here from March 4th-9th. 6 total inches fell. Temps stayed cold for March, 4 more inches fell on the 12th. It snowed one more time on the 20th of March, .5 inches. In November of 54 we had an inch of snow on the 1st after it snowed on October 29th and on Halloween day. It also got into the single digits by the 3rd. Most of the rest of the month was mild until the end, when it cooled off again. December of 55 was cold. It snowed 8 different days with 6 inches falling over the 18th, 19th and 20th. But it warmed into the 60s by Christmas day. January of 55 started warm, then turned seasonable to cold in the mid month time frame. At least a ground covering of snow fell on 15 different days, with 5 inches falling on the 18th. The others were light mostly though and we only had 7 inches for the month. There was a 4 inch snow event on February 10th followed by some subzero cold the next couple of days, but that was it for February snow. March was mostly warm, but we managed 5 days with at least a ground coating, but not much more. November of 50 was a freakish one. It snowed on 9 different days in the month. We had a day with a high in the single digits on the 25th as it snowed 12 inches from the night of the 24th til the 29th in the wake of the Great Appalachian snowstorm. It was pretty cold through December as well and we got 4 total inches of snow for the month. In Jan-March of 51 the weather turned mostly mild and we only had 3 more inches of snow the rest of winter. 

[Carvers Gap]

On August 12, 2016 at 7:35 AM, John1122 said:

Looking back the 2000-01 winter was not great, it snowed one day in November and about 6 inches in Early December then winter wasn't much to speak of after, and  2011-2012 was a very bad winter for snow lovers in these parts. 84-85 was a weak Nina, as was 95-96. Both were very snowy, two of the most legendary winters for Tennessee. Both featured -20s here for the coldest low temps. 74-75 had about half an inch in November then a pretty wintry December/January with 15 or so inches here and it got warm in February, there was another 4 inches of snow between March 1st and 9th, there was even a ground whitener in April.  In 71-72 it snowed 3 times in November enough to cover the ground, but December was warm and it only snowed one day in the month, there was only 2 inches of snow in January and it got below 0 at -6 one morning, with lots of mild weather after. February of 72 had 11 inches of snow, March was up and down and we had a late snow of 3 inches on the 25th.  67-68 had about an inch in November, 10 inches in December, 9 in January, 6 in February and 4 in March.  November of 64 started off very warm but turned cold towards the end of the month with some teens for lows, we had 3/4ths of an inch of snow on November 30th. December only had .5 inches of snow, it was 6 degrees on the 18th and 66 on Christmas eve. January 65 started warm then turned colder and colder. It was warm for 10 days, cold for 10 with a -2 low in there. Then warm for 6 days, then turned really cold with -6 by the 31st. 8 inches of snow for the month, pretty spread out over 3 events. February started cold, 6 inches of snow on the 1st, -8 and -7 on the 2nd and 3rd. Warmed up through mid-month, it was nearly 70 a week after -7. Another cold shot hit late month, had some lows in the single digits and got 7 more inches of snow, 2 inches on the 21st/22nd, and 5 on the 25th. March was amazing in 65, we'd have 60s, then cold and snowy weather. It snowed every day here from March 4th-9th. 6 total inches fell. Temps stayed cold for March, 4 more inches fell on the 12th. It snowed one more time on the 20th of March, .5 inches. In November of 54 we had an inch of snow on the 1st after it snowed on October 29th and on Halloween day. It also got into the single digits by the 3rd. Most of the rest of the month was mild until the end, when it cooled off again. December of 55 was cold. It snowed 8 different days with 6 inches falling over the 18th, 19th and 20th. But it warmed into the 60s by Christmas day. January of 55 started warm, then turned seasonable to cold in the mid month time frame. At least a ground covering of snow fell on 15 different days, with 5 inches falling on the 18th. The others were light mostly though and we only had 7 inches for the month. There was a 4 inch snow event on February 10th followed by some subzero cold the next couple of days, but that was it for February snow. March was mostly warm, but we managed 5 days with at least a ground coating, but not much more. November of 50 was a freakish one. It snowed on 9 different days in the month. We had a day with a high in the single digits on the 25th as it snowed 12 inches from the night of the 24th til the 29th in the wake of the Great Appalachian snowstorm. It was pretty cold through December as well and we got 4 total inches of snow for the month. In Jan-March of 51 the weather turned mostly mild and we only had 3 more inches of snow the rest of winter. 

 

Posts like that are what make our forum and AmWx great.  Can't get that information anywhere else.  Awesome, man.

[jaxjagman]

On 8/12/2016 at 6:35 AM, John1122 said:

Looking back the 2000-01 winter was not great, it snowed one day in November and about 6 inches in Early December then winter wasn't much to speak of after, and  2011-2012 was a very bad winter for snow lovers in these parts. 84-85 was a weak Nina, as was 95-96. Both were very snowy, two of the most legendary winters for Tennessee. Both featured -20s here for the coldest low temps. 74-75 had about half an inch in November then a pretty wintry December/January with 15 or so inches here and it got warm in February, there was another 4 inches of snow between March 1st and 9th, there was even a ground whitener in April.  In 71-72 it snowed 3 times in November enough to cover the ground, but December was warm and it only snowed one day in the month, there was only 2 inches of snow in January and it got below 0 at -6 one morning, with lots of mild weather after. February of 72 had 11 inches of snow, March was up and down and we had a late snow of 3 inches on the 25th.  67-68 had about an inch in November, 10 inches in December, 9 in January, 6 in February and 4 in March.  November of 64 started off very warm but turned cold towards the end of the month with some teens for lows, we had 3/4ths of an inch of snow on November 30th. December only had .5 inches of snow, it was 6 degrees on the 18th and 66 on Christmas eve. January 65 started warm then turned colder and colder. It was warm for 10 days, cold for 10 with a -2 low in there. Then warm for 6 days, then turned really cold with -6 by the 31st. 8 inches of snow for the month, pretty spread out over 3 events. February started cold, 6 inches of snow on the 1st, -8 and -7 on the 2nd and 3rd. Warmed up through mid-month, it was nearly 70 a week after -7. Another cold shot hit late month, had some lows in the single digits and got 7 more inches of snow, 2 inches on the 21st/22nd, and 5 on the 25th. March was amazing in 65, we'd have 60s, then cold and snowy weather. It snowed every day here from March 4th-9th. 6 total inches fell. Temps stayed cold for March, 4 more inches fell on the 12th. It snowed one more time on the 20th of March, .5 inches. In November of 54 we had an inch of snow on the 1st after it snowed on October 29th and on Halloween day. It also got into the single digits by the 3rd. Most of the rest of the month was mild until the end, when it cooled off again. December of 55 was cold. It snowed 8 different days with 6 inches falling over the 18th, 19th and 20th. But it warmed into the 60s by Christmas day. January of 55 started warm, then turned seasonable to cold in the mid month time frame. At least a ground covering of snow fell on 15 different days, with 5 inches falling on the 18th. The others were light mostly though and we only had 7 inches for the month. There was a 4 inch snow event on February 10th followed by some subzero cold the next couple of days, but that was it for February snow. March was mostly warm, but we managed 5 days with at least a ground coating, but not much more. November of 50 was a freakish one. It snowed on 9 different days in the month. We had a day with a high in the single digits on the 25th as it snowed 12 inches from the night of the 24th til the 29th in the wake of the Great Appalachian snowstorm. It was pretty cold through December as well and we got 4 total inches of snow for the month. In Jan-March of 51 the weather turned mostly mild and we only had 3 more inches of snow the rest of winter. 

Like Carver said,nice read.You must have a photographic memory though..lol

[Carvers Gap]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mrx/?n=july2016derecho

Great article...

[jaxjagman]

Looks like our record will end at 49 days (tomorrow) unless something strange happens that temps haven't fallen below 70 degrees in the Mid Valley. 

[jaxjagman]

Maybe something to watch into the 2nd week of Sept.GFS  is slower.I'll put it here and not in the severe thread quite yet.It's still in the long range.

 

 

 

 

 

Edit:Meh,big stom but it doesn't look like it will recurve

[nrgjeff]

Weekend models returned to SER with Plains weakness. Keep that up in September and severe season encore could be interesting in the Midwest. Trying to think of something else besides more local heat! 

[Carvers Gap]

Anyone watching the tropics for next weekend?  CMC today stalls out a low over the SE.  Euro had a strong system on one of yesterday's runs.  Still way out there, but something to watch from Memphis to TRI.

[Mr Bob]

The new Euro weeklies are certainly depressing for anyone wanting fall to get here. It may be 90s well into the second week of September...This is the summer that never ends...it just goes on and on my friends....

[Carvers Gap]

4 hours ago, Mr Bob said:

The new Euro weeklies are certainly depressing for anyone wanting fall to get here. It may be 90s well into the second week of September...This is the summer that never ends...it just goes on and on my friends....

Brutal.  Going to make fall football miserable for day games.  I looked at the weeklies last week...I mean I just need a bit of a cool down.  Not so.  LOL.

[jaxjagman]

11 hours ago, Mr Bob said:

The new Euro weeklies are certainly depressing for anyone wanting fall to get here. It may be 90s well into the second week of September...This is the summer that never ends...it just goes on and on my friends....

Those places in the drought areas still are going to reap it in,like you..lol.No signs of  any real relief until mid month maybe.Keep chilled Mr.Bob

[jaxjagman]

Euro at it again,100+ MPH with the center aiming towards Pensacola or around that vicinity

[Carvers Gap]

57 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Euro at it again,100+ MPH with the center aiming towards Pensacola or around that vicinity

Man, just saw that!  Not only that but the precip makes it into far E TN.  JMA, CMC, Euro, UKMET...all have varying degrees of development in the GOM.  The 12 Euro slides under the ridge and just goes bonkers.  It is slower and spends a lot more time in the GOM.  The 12 CMC is almost a double hit as it re-emerges on the SE coast but recurves too quickly to do so.  Been watching this for a couple of days.  GFS still not on board at 12z.  Edit:  18z GFS is now on board.

[jaxjagman]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Man, just saw that!  Not only that but the precip makes it into far E TN.  JMA, CMC, Euro, UKMET...all have varying degrees of development in the GOM.  The 12 Euro slides under the ridge and just goes bonkers.  It is slower and spends a lot more time in the GOM.  The 12 CMC is almost a double hit as it re-emerges on the SE coast but recurves too quickly to do so.  Been watching this for a couple of days.  GFS still not on board at 12z.  Edit:  18z GFS is now on board.

Euro tries to build a ridge into the lower OV,TN valley by the looks this afternoon.This is what you want to see for tropical genesis especially as warm as the Gulf stream is,GFS not so much.If the Euro were to be right we'd have some possible beneficial rains to portions of the drought areas in the Valley S and SE,but it would come with a cost MUCH further down S of us

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, jaxjagman said:

Euro tries to build a ridge into the lower OV,TN valley by the looks this afternoon.This is what you want to see for tropical genesis especially as warm as the Gulf stream is,GFS not so much.If the Euro were to be right we'd have some possible beneficial rains to portions of the drought areas in the Valley S and SE,but it would come with a cost MUCH further down S of us

 Will be watching closely.  Definitely do not want those folks to deal with the 12z Euro scenario.  I am not a tropical guy, but the GOM appears ripe for development if the wave survives.