pcbjr Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Slight shift east (very) as suspected - air over west Gulf will have influence: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2016/graphics/al03/loop_3W.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 I agree weak ts. TD #3 has been upgraded to TS Colin. Max sustain 40mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 I agree weak ts. TD #3 has been upgraded to TS Colin. Max sustain 40mph Check out the 18z GFS. Much stronger at landfall than previous run. Strongest run yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Check out the 18z GFS. Much stronger at landfall than previous run. Strongest run yet. I agree if you look at the satellite trough axis is running from Canada to the Pacific Ocean. But I can see an observation on satellite that the long wave axis is going to be between Cross City Florida and Beverly Hills Florida. There is enough Divergence within the Trough axiss to allow for strengthening of Colin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 It has been strengthening today the overall long-wave trough axis is allowing for it to strengthen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 This is the earliest ever there have been three named storms in the Atlantic. Already active and the ocean hasn't even warmed up all the way. Could be a rough hurricane season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 From satellite imagery I can't tell if Colin is getting better organized or worse from frame to frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Looking at the visible loop it looks like its getting its act together, I'm interested to see what happens tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Presently the projected track is just to my N which should get the highest gusts (area wise, save the coast) and most prolific rainfall right onto the hole dug for the pool in the yard...JMFL Not concerned about strengthening, weak sauce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 Really hard to tell what the NHC is calling the "center" hopefully tomorrow it gets better defined, the plane had a lot of trouble finding a LLC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tater Tot Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 Really hard to tell what the NHC is calling the "center" hopefully tomorrow it gets better defined, the plane had a lot of trouble finding a LLC. Yeah, it looks horrid right now. And we're at 3 storms already because of Alex in January, which I don't think really has anything to do with the 2016 season. Bonnie and Colin could very well just be a fluke. There have been other seasons that had weirdly active starts and then basically nothing by the peak of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 Yeah, it looks horrid right now. And we're at 3 storms already because of Alex in January, which I don't think really has anything to do with the 2016 season. Bonnie and Colin could very well just be a fluke. There have been other seasons that had weirdly active starts and then basically nothing by the peak of the season. Very true. These early season or preseason TC formations aren't a good predictor for peak season activity. The main reason being that more than 60% of all typical seasonal activity develops in the MDR (main development region) of the tropical Atlantic, between west Africa and the eastern Carribean Islands. Thus, there is very little, if any, correlation between these "home grown" systems and what may develop during the peak months. That said, the better indicator of a more active season is the state of the ENSO (trending towards a prospective LA Nina) and a possible continuation of the warm phase of the AMO cycle...during the aforementioned peak months of the hurricane season. We shall see how it ultimately plays out. Personally, I anticipate a much more active season. One that closely matches the median of the 1995-2015 average for Neutral to La Nina ENSO seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 Yeah, it looks horrid right now. And we're at 3 storms already because of Alex in January, which I don't think really has anything to do with the 2016 season. Bonnie and Colin could very well just be a fluke. There have been other seasons that had weirdly active starts and then basically nothing by the peak of the season. Why was there a named storm for this hurricane season way back in January ? Shouldn't a January storm be a part of the 2015 season since its closer to the end of the 2015 season than it is to the beginning of the 2016 season ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 Why was there a named storm for this hurricane season way back in January ? Shouldn't a January storm be a part of the 2015 season since its closer to the end of the 2015 season than it is to the beginning of the 2016 season ? Although your suggestion makes sense, the NHC has always initiated a new set of storm names beginning with the first TC formation of the new calendar year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted June 6, 2016 Author Share Posted June 6, 2016 That about the most perfect agreement on rapid intensification you will ever see...the best intensity model of 2015 the HWRF takes it down to 982mb and the EURO is 984mb! This occurs east of NC. Going to be some nice wave action! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted June 6, 2016 Author Share Posted June 6, 2016 NHC way out to lunch on their intensity forecast. I would be more cautious and have a CAT1 possible on hitting FL then TS inland...and back to CAT1 E of Myrtle Beach SC....then CAT2/3 E of NC...we will see how everything goes! Certainly has things going against it to prevent it from becoming a hurricane hitting Florida and may just be a strong TS on the south-east flank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 NHC way out to lunch on their intensity forecast. I would be more cautious and have a CAT1 possible on hitting FL then TS inland...and back to CAT1 E of Myrtle Beach SC....then CAT2/3 E of NC...we will see how everything goes! Certainly has things going against it to prevent it from becoming a hurricane hitting Florida and may just be a strong TS on the south-east flank. What? Are we looking at the same thing? the water off the NC coast doesnt really support that so its highly unlikely. Also a pressure of 986 isnt Cat 2/3 pressure usually which is the lowest pressure I can find on a model run....when Irene hit the pressure in Greenville made it down to 974 and the center was 70 miles to our east and she was a Cat 1/2 at the time. The only one out to lunch is you with this thinking, its possible but there is nothing in the models that remotely suggest any of what you typed. Most have the pressure around 999-1002 MB when it hits FL thats no Cat 1, Hell its gonna be ashore in 12 hrs and its barely even a TS, they are calling it one just in case it does do somethng silly and bomb out but the winds are all in thunderstorm clusters and there is no well defined wind field associated with a LLC hardly anywhere and no buoys in the GOM are gusting over 35 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 NHC way out to lunch on their intensity forecast. I would be more cautious and have a CAT1 possible on hitting FL then TS inland...and back to CAT1 E of Myrtle Beach SC....then CAT2/3 E of NC...we will see how everything goes! Certainly has things going against it to prevent it from becoming a hurricane hitting Florida and may just be a strong TS on the south-east flank. I'm always willing to be proven wrong, but what might lead you to this supposition? Colin is churning toward land faster than originally forecast, a lopsided storm fighting 20-knot shear on the western side. Then after crossing FLA. it moves into marginal water ... certainly not ideal for any RI. I just don't see it. But, like I said ... always willing to learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 Garbage storm. Anything above a 45mph TS from this thing will exceed my expectations. This is typical early season junk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 Garbage storm. Anything above a 45mph TS from this thing will exceed my expectations. This is typical early season junk. And now it's 50mph max sustained. The thing looks better on satellite compared to 6 hrs ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 And now it's 50mph max sustained. The thing looks better on satellite compared to 6 hrs ago lol Still a garbage storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 And now it's 50mph max sustained. The thing looks better on satellite compared to 6 hrs ago Its not even close to having 50 mph sustained winds.......there may be winds that high in storms but the actual LLC associated with this system is hard to even find.... Here are some buoys located near the "center" of the system http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42023 http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 I see nothing to be even a little excited about. I mean, with some storms, you may say it's boring, but if x happens, it may get exciting. There's no potential x here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 NHC way out to lunch on their intensity forecast. I would be more cautious and have a CAT1 possible on hitting FL then TS inland...and back to CAT1 E of Myrtle Beach SC....then CAT2/3 E of NC...we will see how everything goes! Certainly has things going against it to prevent it from becoming a hurricane hitting Florida and may just be a strong TS on the south-east flank. Wow the NW corner of a Cat 1 hurricane grazing Myrtle Beach, better close the whole city. Enough with the hype. The trough progressing from the west will pick this storm up and quickly move it out to sea. I have yet to see a model that has the storm dipping under the trough, so the effects should be minimal. I would be warning for gusty winds and high rip current potential with occasional heavy showers. 4km NAM showing precip on the western side of the storm struggling to form as the trough beats it down and sweeps it out to sea. True it may strengthen greatly as it moves out to sea, but that trajectory only raises the chance for rip current on the eastern seaboard. Why haven't you been hyping this one big for WNC? I have already recieved twice as much rain in mby with Colin compared to Bonnie, and WNC was supposed to be ground zero for that storm per your analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 Garbage storm. Anything above a 45mph TS from this thing will exceed my expectations. This is typical early season junk. It's a good rainmaker down here. Don't hate. 78/rain at the moment. We had some good rain overnight but it looks like the best rain is yet to come. EDIT: And now we just got put under a Flood Warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 It's a good rainmaker down here. Don't hate. 78/rain at the moment. We had some good rain overnight but it looks like the best rain is yet to come. EDIT: And now we just got put under a Flood Warning. Tallahassee under a Flash flood Warning too, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 Really IMO shouldn't be classified as anything but they don't ask me lol.... TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL0320161000 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2016The satellite presentation of Colin does not resemble that of aclassical tropical cyclone, with the thunderstorm activity andstrong winds well to the east of the center. Satellite, buoy, andthe earlier aircraft data indicate that the center, such as it is,is within a large area of light and variable winds. In fact, severalsmall swirls are seen rotating within a larger cyclonic gyre. Theinitial wind speed is maintained at 45 kt, based on the overnightaircraft observations. The next reconnaissance aircraft will be inthe system around 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 Very true. These early season or preseason TC formations aren't a good predictor for peak season activity. The main reason being that more than 60% of all typical seasonal activity develops in the MDR (main development region) of the tropical Atlantic, between west Africa and the eastern Carribean Islands. Thus, there is very little, if any, correlation between these "home grown" systems and what may develop during the peak months. That said, the better indicator of a more active season is the state of the ENSO (trending towards a prospective LA Nina) and a possible continuation of the warm phase of the AMO cycle...during the aforementioned peak months of the hurricane season. Yes; these two cyclones have seemed to be significantly driven by the approaching continental troughs. The phenomenon could result in a specific name for the systems (if it would not be confusing in forecasts). After all, some cyclones generate from TUTT activity, some from continental waves moving west off of Africa (and occasionally moving in various directions off the CONUS), then, some seem very much to generate in tandem with a ULL and trough moving east over the CONUS. Here is a long loop showing the generation of this cyclone in tandem with the low and trough sinking south from over Texas. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?wv_central+/100h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 Gusty southeasterly winds in Delray beach Florida. If this thing can tighten up it has some juice to work with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted June 6, 2016 Author Share Posted June 6, 2016 Leaving in an hour or two Myrtle Beach! LIVE reporting starting tonight and tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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