NWNC2015 Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 It all looks but for certain some flooding rains and wind are headed to Florida. Uncertainty exists upon exit with coastal issues for the South-East becoming possible. Waves and rip currents at least, but possibly squally weather could occur up the South-East coasts. I will have LIVE reporting on the South-East coast if conditions warrant a trip to Myrtle Beach, South Carolina! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted June 4, 2016 Author Share Posted June 4, 2016 Even the EURO takes it down to at least 990mb east of NC so the major hurricane the CMC shows crawling up the entire S/E coast may be possible if future Colin can take advantage of the narrow Gulf Stream. I'm not sure tho on making it 958mb near Nova Scotia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 Even the EURO takes it down to at least 990mb east of NC so the major hurricane the CMC shows crawling up the entire S/E coast may be possible if future Colin can take advantage of the narrow Gulf Stream. It could also never have a name Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted June 4, 2016 Author Share Posted June 4, 2016 It could also never have a name Highly unlikely when the NHC brings out the red crayons with 80% chance of development. Recon scheduled for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 Highly unlikely when the NHC brings out the red crayons with 80% chance of development. Recon scheduled for tomorrow. Just as likely as the major you hyped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Ok sorry for the mby question but my family and I are down here outside of Georgetown sc. Are we looking at a major cane or have a couple of drinks and everything is good? I just don't have access to weather maps down here. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Ok sorry for the mby question but my family and I are down here outside of Georgetown sc. Are we looking at a major cane or have a couple of drinks and everything is good? I just don't have access to weather maps down here. Thanks Doubt it,the storm will probably be extra tropical as it heads off the South Ga/N/FL coast,the strongest winds by the models will be to the E/SE part of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Cute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Cute. Hiya stranger Nice to see you stopping by Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Ok sorry for the mby question but my family and I are down here outside of Georgetown sc. Are we looking at a major cane or have a couple of drinks and everything is good? I just don't have access to weather maps down here. Thanks Enjoy your vacation, just stay alert for any possible changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Doubt it,the storm will probably be extra tropical as it heads off the South Ga/N/FL coast,the strongest winds by the models will be to the E/SE part of the storm Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Thank you all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 I wish this was coming about 300-400 miles farther west. Then maybe it would finally rain where I am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 I'm not even going to talk about it until it actually forms and the models have a valid initialization point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 I'm not even going to talk about it until it actually forms and the models have a valid initialization point. Probably a smart thing,but it's up to 80/80 now,pretty high probs for Florida http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted June 5, 2016 Author Share Posted June 5, 2016 Need to watch the EURO closely when it makes a hurricane it's not as loony as the CMC. Same general area where Bonnie reformed and strengthened despite cooler ocean temps. It does this despite going inland over Waycross, GA....so that tells me if it were to emerge straight into the Atlantic after Florida like the GFS does...you could see a strengthening storm paralleling Myrtle Beach and the OBX sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Need to watch the EURO closely when it makes a hurricane it's not as loony as the CMC. Same general area where Bonnie reformed and strengthened despite cooler ocean temps. It does this despite going inland over Waycross, GA....so that tells me if it were to emerge straight into the Atlantic after Florida like the GFS does...you would have a fairly strong storm paralleling Myrtle Beach and the OBX. It looks to be extratropical at that point. Surprised you haven't said anything about the tornado potential for Florida when conditions like you were hyping it for Bonnie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted June 5, 2016 Author Share Posted June 5, 2016 It looks to be extratropical at that point. Surprised you haven't said anything about the tornado potential for Florida when conditions like you were hyping it for Bonnie. Didn't hype it just posted the solution IF the HWRF was right with a 60mph Tropical Storm and it going inland to at least Charlotte. Neither happened. I will also being posting solutions for Florida that models show that may not even happen. Just like with winter weather, different solutions win out over others even 12 hours out but we still discuss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Hiya stranger Nice to see you stopping by Well hello there As far as the forecast goes... It really could not be more straightforward. Probably a 50 MPH TS just north of Tampa Tuesday morning, then riding just off the coast and out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Well hello there As far as the forecast goes... It really could not be more straightforward. Probably a 50 MPH TS just north of Tampa Tuesday morning, then riding just off the coast and out to sea. I know.....ugh....no rain for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted June 5, 2016 Author Share Posted June 5, 2016 Well hello there As far as the forecast goes... It really could not be more straightforward. Probably a 50 MPH TS just north of Tampa Tuesday morning, then riding just off the coast and out to sea. It's not that straightforward for some of the hard hit areas from Bonnie...could be nothing to fairly significant squally weather that could cause flooding easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 As someone with a house that has major roof damage I really want this thing to track farther away from the SC coast, or a whole lot farther inland. Not what I've seen the models moving towards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Still trying to figure out where the LLC is lol.....looks absolutely pathetic at the moment given the NHC plot of the "center" and I am surprised they pulled the trigger on it given the sat presentation...or I am missing something when I look at this loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/03L/flash-vis-long.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Possible. But being be the large trough axis running up through the Gom and the deep convection of TD possible to have a board low with multiple smaller lp. But looking at satellite I'm willing to bet near the flare up the is a lp center. But it's a lope sided system so any TD conditions are in the complex of storms. But only way to tell is recon. But right now I do agree the trigger pull early. But the again hard to ATM with a board multi lp system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Possible. But being be the large trough axis running up through the Gom and the deep convection of TD possible to have a board low with multiple smaller lp. But looking at satellite I'm willing to bet near the flare up the is a lp center. But it's a lope sided system so any TD conditions are in the complex of storms. But only way to tell is recon. But right now I do agree the trigger pull early. But the again hard to ATM with a board multi lp system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Looks like it's heading right towards here with Tropical Storm Warnings out for Wakulla County just south of her along the Gulf Coast. I'm looking forward to the rain. It's been way too hot and dry lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Looks like it's heading right towards here with Tropical Storm Warnings out for Wakulla County just south of her along the Gulf Coast. I'm looking forward to the rain. It's been way too hot and dry lately. Hey Neighbor! Ragged mess, but if history is any indication, a couple of these in June/July seem to "clean out" the atmosphere for August/September (no science, just observation and recollection) - let's hope that's the case as later in the year storms can be a very real bad thing in N. Fla. Best, Phil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 SPC has now upgraded the marginal area to slight risk which includes most of FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Regardless of whether this thing gets named or stays a ragged mess, this is a pretty impressive satellite: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Good discussion from another Board: http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Cat=0&Board=metblogs&Number=96263&Searchpage=1&Main=96263&Words=&topic=1&Search=true#Post96263 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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