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June 4-5 2016 Rain and Storms Obs and Discussion


MN Transplant

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The thing with convection and severe wx is you can't expect you're going to get severe...I think people always build up way too high expectations when it comes to convection and hey get let down and start calling busts. This was never a major widespread outbreak type of setup. In these setups you deal with isolated pockets of damage and that's what seems to be occurring

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There's a wind cooling things off a lot here (~15 degrees), despite the closest cell being about 5 miles north.  If it can hold together, the tail of the line south of Leesburg may be good, but I worry that all the mixing from the front end of the line passing to our north may take the edge off...

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I learned that lesson years ago. I can only remember true widespread severe weather a few times in the 37 years I've been living in this area (whole life). Line looks super lame. At this point I'm just hoping for some rain on my garden. That's even in question right now.

Seems like once every ~4 years we get a derecho or a lone TOR and that's the ''severe'' for the area.  4" tree limbs in your front yard isn't severe, IMO.  Then again, my standards are probably too high.

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Torrential rain in North Laurel along with gusts to 35 kt, but no T&L.    Definitely a much wimpier radar look right now that I expected to see.

 

I'm moving on to Tuesday afternoon:   1000-1500 cape, unidirectional shear profile but with strong speed shear, inverted-V soundings, and a 110+ knot upper jet           a narrow, fast-moving, low-topped line is within the range of possible outcomes

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pretty significant bust for the dc area.  whole lotta nothin'.  we'll see what happens with the tail end of this by the 270 split.

 

That's where I'm waiting for it... Might be lucky to catch the very edge of the tail for ~2 minutes.

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Interestingly not much middle ground in analogs and we seem to have run to the meh end. Was too into it initially but did sort of trend down into game time overall. Yeah DC area!

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Interestingly not much middle ground in analogs and we seem to have run to the meh end. Was too into it initially but did sort of trend down into game time overall. Yeah DC area!

 

It's been a lame severe season so far locally - though a lot of June is left. 

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Had some decent gusts here...35-40 mph...just saw one flash of lightning and a couple rumbles...nice-ish shelf...tough too get a good view with so much low junk around

Same here garden variety thunder shower 

 

I recommend The Country Place on 313 approx 5 miles east of Qtown, great food and drink at crazy 1980's prices

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