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June 4-5 2016 Rain and Storms Obs and Discussion


MN Transplant

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Interesting they mention the risk for supercells and discrete activity with potential for a few tornadoes

 

Doesn't sound very bullish.

 

   0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS ARE RELATIVELY SMALL DUE TO VEERED LOW-LEVEL WINDS.   PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND WITH THE LINEAR MODES...BUT SOME    HAIL AND AT LEAST A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE   MORE DISCRETE ACTIVITY.
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I'd say the odds heavily favor a severe tstm watch despite SPC mentioning a few tornadoes. I feel like they mention a few tornadoes in every mesoscale discussion that leads to any type of watch. 

Agreed, this is a high CAPE low SRH setup. Any spinup will be weak and short lived.

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Update LWX AFD:

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...We are currently watching the line of showers coming into westernMD. These a free of lightning at the moment but are starting togain some vertical development. A watch is certainly possible nowthat breaks have finally developed in the low cloud which has beenhanging over the area all morning.As written in earlier discussion parameters are in place forsevere development. Dulles VWP has a good wind field with SW windsof 30-50 knots aloft.HRRR still shows strongest activitity with the line would be inthe I-95 corridor around 21Z.A flash flood watch remains in effect for the central ShenandoahValley of VA based partly on the fact that Albemarle/Nelsonreceived up to 7" of rain last night...and we are still receivingreports of flooding in these counties as well as in Rockingham.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... We are currently watching the line of showers coming into western MD. These a free of lightning at the moment but are starting to gain some vertical development. A watch is certainly possible now that breaks have finally developed in the low cloud which has been hanging over the area all morning. As written in earlier discussion parameters are in place for severe development. Dulles VWP has a good wind field with SW winds of 30-50 knots aloft. HRRR still shows strongest activitity with the line would be in the I-95 corridor around 21Z. A flash flood watch remains in effect for the central Shenandoah Valley of VA based partly on the fact that Albemarle/Nelson received up to 7" of rain last night...and we are still receiving reports of flooding in these counties as well as in Rockingham.
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We will probably go 15-20 miles SE...stopped here for a break and figure things out

I recommend going 40 miles southwest of Allentown towards Lancaster, that is typically ground zero area for severe in SEPA, actually from there and out toward York County.

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I recommend going 40 miles southwest of Allentown towards Lancaster, that is typically ground zero area for severe in SEPA, actually from there and out toward York County.

You mean SW? The thing we're fighting right now though is time and it looks like some showers at least popping ahead of the line which could develop further

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We had originally discussed Lancaster but we got a late start on the road this AM and that's about an hour plus according to the GPS. What about Quakertown? Looks like some good views at least in that area

Possibly as most of the surrounding area is woods and hills as where I live. I guess the Quakertown park by the library is an open spot also the airport.

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