snowfan Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 The HRRR looks TRRRible. Yeah, except for ocean spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Wondering if discrete cells actually do form, or the line is all we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 80% chance of a blue box it seems: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2016/md0819.html Interesting they mention the risk for supercells and discrete activity with potential for a few tornadoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 The HRRR looks TRRRible. It hasn't been doing quite well this morning so far as others have pointed out. had me getting all sorts of rain up until about now and I havent had a drop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Interesting they mention the risk for supercells and discrete activity with potential for a few tornadoes Doesn't sound very bullish. 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS ARE RELATIVELY SMALL DUE TO VEERED LOW-LEVEL WINDS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND WITH THE LINEAR MODES...BUT SOME HAIL AND AT LEAST A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE DISCRETE ACTIVITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Last two frames of the visible satellite finally show clearing in Central VA. Latest SPC meso analysis has roughly 2,000 SBCAPE west of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 I'd say the odds heavily favor a severe tstm watch despite SPC mentioning a few tornadoes. I feel like they mention a few tornadoes in every mesoscale discussion that leads to any type of watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Made it to Allentown, PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phillycane Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Hi Guys, I'm currently in a suburb immediately north of Philly (the philly forum is dead) anyway all the way up here we have the sun and blue skies breaking through the clouds. Current temp- 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Made it to Allentown, PABlasting north from the Raleigh-Durham area. En route to Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 I'd say the odds heavily favor a severe tstm watch despite SPC mentioning a few tornadoes. I feel like they mention a few tornadoes in every mesoscale discussion that leads to any type of watch. Agreed, this is a high CAPE low SRH setup. Any spinup will be weak and short lived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Blasting north from the Raleigh-Durham area. En route to Virginia. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Good luck!You too! The southeastern chunk of PA seems to often do well with severe and there are some areas with decent visibility too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 NAM nest. I'll take it though I'll admit to not being so much a severe weather fan all the time. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/firewx/firewx_12z_maxref_animate_1h.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 NAM nest. I'll take it though I'll admit to not being so much a severe weather fan all the time. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/firewx/firewx_12z_maxref_animate_1h.html That's max reflectivity - makes it look a lot worse than it actually is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Made it to Allentown, PA I live just south of Allentown it has been overcast and currently 71.3F. Generally this area has been lame for severe in recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 We will probably go 15-20 miles SE...stopped here for a break and figure things out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Update LWX AFD: .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...We are currently watching the line of showers coming into westernMD. These a free of lightning at the moment but are starting togain some vertical development. A watch is certainly possible nowthat breaks have finally developed in the low cloud which has beenhanging over the area all morning.As written in earlier discussion parameters are in place forsevere development. Dulles VWP has a good wind field with SW windsof 30-50 knots aloft.HRRR still shows strongest activitity with the line would be inthe I-95 corridor around 21Z.A flash flood watch remains in effect for the central ShenandoahValley of VA based partly on the fact that Albemarle/Nelsonreceived up to 7" of rain last night...and we are still receivingreports of flooding in these counties as well as in Rockingham. .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... We are currently watching the line of showers coming into western MD. These a free of lightning at the moment but are starting to gain some vertical development. A watch is certainly possible now that breaks have finally developed in the low cloud which has been hanging over the area all morning. As written in earlier discussion parameters are in place for severe development. Dulles VWP has a good wind field with SW winds of 30-50 knots aloft. HRRR still shows strongest activitity with the line would be in the I-95 corridor around 21Z. A flash flood watch remains in effect for the central Shenandoah Valley of VA based partly on the fact that Albemarle/Nelson received up to 7" of rain last night...and we are still receiving reports of flooding in these counties as well as in Rockingham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Might just go to Quakertown, PA...good views per google maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 We will probably go 15-20 miles SE...stopped here for a break and figure things out I recommend going 40 miles southwest of Allentown towards Lancaster, that is typically ground zero area for severe in SEPA, actually from there and out toward York County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 I recommend going 40 miles southwest of Allentown towards Lancaster, that is typically ground zero area for severe in SEPA, actually from there and out toward York County. You mean SW? The thing we're fighting right now though is time and it looks like some showers at least popping ahead of the line which could develop further Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Discrete thunderstorms have initiated in northeastern North Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 You mean SW? The thing we're fighting right now though is time and it looks like some showers at least popping ahead of the line which could develop further Yes I corrected. They score big time out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Yes I corrected. They score big time out there. We had originally discussed Lancaster but we got a late start on the road this AM and that's about an hour plus according to the GPS. What about Quakertown? Looks like some good views at least in that area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Got some steady cloudyness recently in Columbia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Zero lightning. Wow this is pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 We had originally discussed Lancaster but we got a late start on the road this AM and that's about an hour plus according to the GPS. What about Quakertown? Looks like some good views at least in that area Possibly as most of the surrounding area is woods and hills as where I live. I guess the Quakertown park by the library is an open spot also the airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 A little discrete cell just fired over Southern MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Zero lightning. Wow this is pathetic. Ohio has all the action Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 DC folks better start hoping for something to pop on the southern end of the line or discrete stuff ahead. As the HRRR was suggesting last night the DC split looks healthy. Well not a split for now - more of a miss to the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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