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June 4-5 2016 Rain and Storms Obs and Discussion


MN Transplant

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I’m in the camp where I prefer when SPC has us getting zip and then something pops us.  If I get some more rain today, I am good.  Most of the good storms imby are totally random affairs.  Oh well.  Chalk me up as a whiner Ian, you just got back from Chasecation.  I haven’t seen decent severe for a long time.   :cry:

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this airmass reminds me of thursday when we were stuck with those low level clouds until around 12 or 1pm and then the sun slowly started finding some openings.

If we can get these mid levels clouds to break he low level junk will burn away effortlessly. This is the one time we can hope for downsloping to work to our advantage.

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If we can get these mid levels clouds to break he low level junk will burn away effortlessly. This is the one time we can hope for downsloping to work to our advantage.

I do see some more more breaks on visible. Hoping it breaks sooner rather than later. Would be demoralizing for the breaks to hold off until the line is almost here. 

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If we can get these mid levels clouds to break he low level junk will burn away effortlessly. This is the one time we can hope for downsloping to work to our advantage.

 

yea it's still early.  the timing is in our favor, no question about it.

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1000 cape bubble alread near and south of DC per mesoanalysis. Think we should end up near higher end of guidance there overall. Not sure we will see any discrete but worth watching stuff that tries to roll off hills etc prior to main 'line'.

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Sun out here.

Patches of blue sky visible.

81

I wouldn't bail yet. Ian hasn't .

I'd imagine a good portion of folks will be satisfied. Tho it could be somewhat broken as far as cores. I don't think those helicity tracks are necessarily too impressive though. Wouldn't be shocked to see a tor warning or two outside the bay/ocean zones where boundaries like to sit but no larger backing signal really and not showing up in obs so far.

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Add me to the camp that is still on board.    I understand the disappointment from the fact that a larger TOR threat is not going to play out and that potential for a high end wind event also seems to be gone now, but it still seems like a beefy squall line should roll through most of the area in the late afternoon hours with at least a handful of wind damage reports.

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That could be beneficial for the late rounds, no?

Yes.  Don't want to take any punch out of the atmosphere.  In terms of sunshine, we do have the fact that it's a very high and strong sun angle working for us.  Even 1-3 hours of good breaks can do it.  Wxmeddler posted on Twitter the water-logged parcels thing and that's true, If we can somehow mix a bit and shave a few degrees off the dew point that'll help out severe wx chances out more.  I've noticed that in events like this, you sometimes see the winds shift to SW suddenly about 2-3 hours before the line approaches your location and then it helps down slope in the lee of the mountains and everyone gets enough sun for a bendy twig.

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