Kmlwx Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Maybe they were were referring to this - But we see multiple 30% wind risks every year. LWX seems a little trigger happy today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 I’m in the camp where I prefer when SPC has us getting zip and then something pops us. If I get some more rain today, I am good. Most of the good storms imby are totally random affairs. Oh well. Chalk me up as a whiner Ian, you just got back from Chasecation. I haven’t seen decent severe for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 From the morning LWX discussion - Lots of head scratchers in there. Yea that's not a very promising or quantitative discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 if we can just get these initial scraps out of the way, we might be ok. our main line is all the way back to charleston, wv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 this airmass reminds me of thursday when we were stuck with those low level clouds until around 12 or 1pm and then the sun slowly started finding some openings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 this airmass reminds me of thursday when we were stuck with those low level clouds until around 12 or 1pm and then the sun slowly started finding some openings. If we can get these mid levels clouds to break he low level junk will burn away effortlessly. This is the one time we can hope for downsloping to work to our advantage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 If we can get these mid levels clouds to break he low level junk will burn away effortlessly. This is the one time we can hope for downsloping to work to our advantage. I do see some more more breaks on visible. Hoping it breaks sooner rather than later. Would be demoralizing for the breaks to hold off until the line is almost here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 If we can get these mid levels clouds to break he low level junk will burn away effortlessly. This is the one time we can hope for downsloping to work to our advantage. yea it's still early. the timing is in our favor, no question about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 1000 cape bubble alread near and south of DC per mesoanalysis. Think we should end up near higher end of guidance there overall. Not sure we will see any discrete but worth watching stuff that tries to roll off hills etc prior to main 'line'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 14z HRRR. Wow. That's an improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Sun out here. Patches of blue sky visible. 81 I wouldn't bail yet. Ian hasn't . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Sun out here. Patches of blue sky visible. 81 I wouldn't bail yet. Ian hasn't . I'd imagine a good portion of folks will be satisfied. Tho it could be somewhat broken as far as cores. I don't think those helicity tracks are necessarily too impressive though. Wouldn't be shocked to see a tor warning or two outside the bay/ocean zones where boundaries like to sit but no larger backing signal really and not showing up in obs so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Seems like the best sunshine is just north of I-70. Mason-Dixon looks like the best of the worst today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Add me to the camp that is still on board. I understand the disappointment from the fact that a larger TOR threat is not going to play out and that potential for a high end wind event also seems to be gone now, but it still seems like a beefy squall line should roll through most of the area in the late afternoon hours with at least a handful of wind damage reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Got some patches of clearing, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 1630 update stays the same pretty much, a bigger 5% tor bubble seems to be only change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Sun peaking through some clouds here. Very on and off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 HRRR already busting, the first line of cells is a dud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 There looks to be a line forming back in Western Ohio already. I wonder if that ends up impacting us very late tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 HRRR already busting, the first line of cells is a dud. That could be beneficial for the late rounds, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 That could be beneficial for the late rounds, no? Yes. Don't want to take any punch out of the atmosphere. In terms of sunshine, we do have the fact that it's a very high and strong sun angle working for us. Even 1-3 hours of good breaks can do it. Wxmeddler posted on Twitter the water-logged parcels thing and that's true, If we can somehow mix a bit and shave a few degrees off the dew point that'll help out severe wx chances out more. I've noticed that in events like this, you sometimes see the winds shift to SW suddenly about 2-3 hours before the line approaches your location and then it helps down slope in the lee of the mountains and everyone gets enough sun for a bendy twig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 I'm getting more substantial sunshine here now. WooSun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Looks like the warm front just punched north to Harrisburg/Lancaster/Wilmington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Sun is trying pretty hard. It's cloudy but cloudy-bright, if that makes any sense. Personally, I'm not feeling it today, doesn't seem like one of our better setups. Happy to be wrong though, unless I'm tracking a couplet into my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Been pretty dark and cloudy all day here in AA county. I've seen this all to many times. Until I see brilliant sunshine for a couple hours. I'm going with our typical broken line of storms with a few reports of severe along the PA border. Cloudy and 76. Edit: Sun is out finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 80% chance of a blue box it seems: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2016/md0819.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Sun & clouds 85/71 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 The HRRR looks TRRRible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Ignore the stuff in western ohio. Our line is what's forming and now entering western md. 3:30-5 prob our window. Later further east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 The HRRR looks TRRRible. It also has storms/showers over us like in less than an hour if you're looking at the same run as me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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