AmericanWxFreak Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Enhanced remains but the disco is pretty meh... this really does seem pretty run of the mill. hopefully we are suprised by clearning tomorrow. STORMS SHOULD INITIATE MIDDAY ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND SPREAD EAST OVER THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE EVENING. VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT HODOGRAPH CURVATURE...BUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND ONE OR MORE QLCS/S. THIS SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...BUT A BRIEF TORNADO AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES GIVEN THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. STORMS SHOULD INITIATE MIDDAY ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND SPREAD EAST OVER THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE EVENING. VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT HODOGRAPH CURVATURE...BUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND ONE OR MORE QLCS/S. THIS SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...BUT A BRIEF TORNADO AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES GIVEN THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Newer HRRRs have a bit better clearing, no discrete stuff, and getting ready to blast thru a decent looking squall line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Sun trying to peak out. Might clear out some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 5, 2016 Author Share Posted June 5, 2016 HRRR wants to take us to the low 90s by mid-afternoon. I'm skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 HRRR wants to take us to the low 90s by mid-afternoon. I'm skeptical. We'll need divine intervention for that. Kinda optimistic based off the first few frames of the visible satellite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 HRRR wants to take us to the low 90s by mid-afternoon. I'm skeptical. It does but has pretty unimpressive cape numbers... most of area is between 1and1.5k and a pretty meh broken squall line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 HRRR was a very distinct warm (and dry) bias. Significantly improved in the parallel. para HRRR shows mid 80's here this afternoon HRRR wants to take us to the low 90s by mid-afternoon. I'm skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 sample HRRR/HRRRX 2-m temperature forecast for this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Neither the HRRR or 4k NAM look all that impressive for storms. SPC has us in the 70% poly for the 20-00z time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Today's setup appearing a bit more meh, though southeastern VA into the Peninsula is still looking alright. Doesn't look like we'll get the surface winds backed enough for much of a tornado threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 NAM fire wx nest will run for the area at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 My earlier enthusiasm is gone. Looks like it's nothing but crapvection and low clouds today. Another bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 My earlier enthusiasm is gone. Looks like it's nothing but crapvection and low clouds today. Another bust. Never change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 My earlier enthusiasm is gone. Looks like it's nothing but crapvection and low clouds today. Another bust. I'd wait a couple hours before declaring bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 ENH stays put and 5% TOR introduced... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Surprised at the 5% tor addition. I see some very isolated breaks in the clouds on visible sat but nothing that would suggest long hours of good sun today. Very, very underwhelmed at this point - I'd say we are heading for a run of the mill storm day for the DC area with perhaps an isolated jackpot someplace where a good svr report comes in. My enthusiasm started coming down when the some of the models that like to really ramp things up as we get close did not do so. I'll hope for a good squall to redeem things. Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 4k remains underwhelming for DC, but pretty hardcore for SE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Seems like there's lots of scraps out ahead of it but maybe we can get an hour or two of partly sunny before the main show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 4k remains underwhelming for DC, but pretty hardcore for SE PA. Maybe I'll drive up there - I've lost most of my enthusiasm for it though. I think I much prefer when SPC has us in no risk or a 5% until the day of and then suddenly plays catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Maybe I'll drive up there - I've lost most of my enthusiasm for it though. I think I much prefer when SPC has us in no risk or a 5% until the day of and then suddenly plays catch up. Chasing in PA isn't worthy your time. If the traffic doesn't kill your chances of a good view, the trees and buildings will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Chasing in PA isn't worthy your time. If the traffic doesn't kill your chances of a good view, the trees and buildings will. My favorite is afternoon rush traffic on Centerville Rd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 HRRR looks good for a shelf cloud. That's a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 I think it's too early to bail. Maybe there will be a need to at some point today, but this is DC, we often have to deal with a very messy setup. I agree. When do we ever not have some fly in the ointment. The sun tried to peak out a few minutes ago, but now it's back to heavy low clouds.Temp 73 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Cheer up whiners Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Seems like warm front is making good progress north and east. Good for sunshine for us potentially but also if it goes too far NE it takes away a potential source of backing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Sun is really trying to break through here in Northern AA... its getting very bright and warming quickly... The cloud cover seems really thin.. any chance it just burns off in the midday sun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 #sunobs - still cloudy here. Had a tiny amount of sun earlier but it has not shown up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 4K NAM not that enthused. HRRR is slightly better but still not great. I forgot, how did 5/31/08 go, wasn't it something like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 The afd update doesn't seem so bust-like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 From the morning LWX discussion - SREF severe parameters are very high for the Mid Atlanticregion...and for the DC area Bufkit is showing a good deal ofskinny CAPE and low level curvature of the hodographs. SPC hasincreased the tornado risk to 5% for the eastern part of theCWA..with the wind threat remaining at 30%...which is higher thanI can recall seeing here in quite awhile. Lots of head scratchers in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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