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June 4-5 2016 Rain and Storms Obs and Discussion


MN Transplant

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Enhanced remains but the disco is pretty meh... this really does seem pretty run of the mill. hopefully we are suprised by clearning tomorrow. 

   STORMS SHOULD INITIATE MIDDAY ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND SPREAD   EAST OVER THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE EVENING. VEERED   LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT HODOGRAPH CURVATURE...BUT GIVEN THE   STRENGTH OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO MULTICELL   CLUSTERS AND ONE OR MORE QLCS/S. THIS SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WINDS   WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...BUT A BRIEF TORNADO AND/OR MARGINALLY   SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES   GIVEN THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. 
   STORMS SHOULD INITIATE MIDDAY ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND SPREAD   EAST OVER THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE EVENING. VEERED   LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT HODOGRAPH CURVATURE...BUT GIVEN THE   STRENGTH OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO MULTICELL   CLUSTERS AND ONE OR MORE QLCS/S. THIS SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WINDS   WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...BUT A BRIEF TORNADO AND/OR MARGINALLY   SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES   GIVEN THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. 
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Surprised at the 5% tor addition. 

I see some very isolated breaks in the clouds on visible sat but nothing that would suggest long hours of good sun today. 

Very, very underwhelmed at this point - I'd say we are heading for a run of the mill storm day for the DC area with perhaps an isolated jackpot someplace where a good svr report comes in. 

My enthusiasm started coming down when the some of the models that like to really ramp things up as we get close did not do so. I'll hope for a good squall to redeem things. Meh

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4k remains underwhelming for DC, but pretty hardcore for SE PA.

Maybe I'll drive up there - I've lost most of my enthusiasm for it though. I think I much prefer when SPC has us in no risk or a 5% until the day of and then suddenly plays catch up. 

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Maybe I'll drive up there - I've lost most of my enthusiasm for it though. I think I much prefer when SPC has us in no risk or a 5% until the day of and then suddenly plays catch up.

Chasing in PA isn't worthy your time. If the traffic doesn't kill your chances of a good view, the trees and buildings will.

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From the morning LWX discussion - :lol:
 

SREF severe parameters are very high for the Mid Atlantic
region...and for the DC area Bufkit is showing a good deal of
skinny CAPE and low level curvature of the hodographs. SPC has
increased the tornado risk to 5% for the eastern part of the
CWA..with the wind threat remaining at 30%...which is higher than
I can recall seeing here in quite awhile.

 

Lots of head scratchers in there. 

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