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June 4-5 2016 Rain and Storms Obs and Discussion


MN Transplant

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The 15z HRRRx is about what you would want. Storms overnight, then clears and pops to the upper 80s with CAPE to 2500, then a few discrete cells ahead of a line by mid to late afternoon.

 

Do we have any good data on the verification of that model since it's experimental? I'd assume it's probably not great at range.

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The closest tornado to me since I moved here was 7/31/09, It was the only tornado in the region that day. 

Ironically, the closest I've ever come to seeing a tornado was June 4.  :lol: 2008. The setup was actually similar to tomorrow but in reversed order--there was a derecho early in the afternoon and then some discrete cells in the evening. 

 

Actually, the closest my house has ever been to a tornado was the Ivan outbreak, but I was at school. 

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Ironically, the closest I've ever come to seeing a tornado was June 4.  :lol: 2008. The setup was actually similar to tomorrow but in reversed order--there was a derecho early in the afternoon and then some discrete cells in the evening. 

 

Actually, the closest my house has ever been to a tornado was the Ivan outbreak, but I was at school. 

June 4 2008 had a overnight-before event too and we cleared out by dawn.  The derecho came across the WV/VA line around 1pm, with more rounds, as you said, in the evening.  

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My guess is SPC sticks with enhanced later tonight on the new day 1 outlook.

I'm going to guess 2% tor general with a pocket of 5% somewhere. 30% wind and 15% hail.

Agreed. We always need things to line up perfectly and hedge our bets low so we don't get dissapointed, but I think we do well tomorrow.

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Agreed. We always need things to line up perfectly and hedge our bets low so we don't get dissapointed, but I think we do well tomorrow.

 

My thoughts are mostly that the upper end from SPC on this one is going to be a high end ENH. I do not see a moderate coming for tomorrow unless more substantial backing of the winds can line up with really good instability. I still have a very big inclination to "meh" on this event but I'm keeping my mind open for now. 

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End of 23z HRRR run (10:00am tomorrow) looks prime for severe. Lower 80s with Dew Points in the Lower 70s. PWAT's 2.0-2.1, with Mostly Cloudy conditions. CAPE 1500-2000. I would say that's decent. Way warmer then any other model for that time though.

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Where is everyone? Dead in here for the first active weather we've had in a while and it's a weekend!!

Not much else we can really say at this point...everything boils down to how everything evolves in the morning. Still questions about how quickly the atmosphere recovers, where the warm front stalls and how much winds remain backed and where. The 4km NAM though has seemed to back off a bit on the degree of discrete activity and has any discrete activity quickly converge into a more QLCS like complex with perhaps some embedded mesos.

Eastern PA could causally be a really nice area b/c they stand a decent chance to get into any clearing and also be located close enough to the warm front to where winds can remain backed. The 21z SPC SREF does actually increase the likelihood of 0-1km helicity >150 m2s2 as the afternoon progresses

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I AM LOVIN THIS PATTERN!!!!!

 

The grass is growin big time and I can barely keep up with it! This afternoon i got my latest high grass mowing fix in! My neighbor needs her backyard mowed again and her grass is already 7 inches tall and thick as hell!

Now we get even MORE rain!

 

I wish all this rain would go stationary for a week!

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