Kmlwx Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 The new SPC is pretty paltry on any tornado talk - but they expanded the risk area. Other than that no changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 Decent disco by SPC on the afternoon update. If we get sun, were solid, IMO. I'm in until I see evidence to suggest otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 I always liked Gap, PA as a staging target. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 DC split this weekend. Enjoy everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 4, 2016 Author Share Posted June 4, 2016 The 15z HRRRx is about what you would want. Storms overnight, then clears and pops to the upper 80s with CAPE to 2500, then a few discrete cells ahead of a line by mid to late afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 The 15z HRRRx is about what you would want. Storms overnight, then clears and pops to the upper 80s with CAPE to 2500, then a few discrete cells ahead of a line by mid to late afternoon. Do we have any good data on the verification of that model since it's experimental? I'd assume it's probably not great at range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 4, 2016 Author Share Posted June 4, 2016 Do we have any good data on the verification of that model since it's experimental? I'd assume it's probably not great at range. I really don't know, but I'd guess the same as you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 The closest tornado to me since I moved here was 7/31/09, It was the only tornado in the region that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 Interesting afternoon discussion from Sterling. They already are discussing "a severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed" for tomorrow afternoon. Let's shoot for a tor watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 Almost full sun now. It's hot out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 I like how we cleared out today. Gives me hope for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 I like how we cleared out today. Gives me hope for tomorrow. Me too. I thought it was ovah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tater Tot Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 The closest tornado to me since I moved here was 7/31/09, It was the only tornado in the region that day. Ironically, the closest I've ever come to seeing a tornado was June 4. 2008. The setup was actually similar to tomorrow but in reversed order--there was a derecho early in the afternoon and then some discrete cells in the evening. Actually, the closest my house has ever been to a tornado was the Ivan outbreak, but I was at school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 Ironically, the closest I've ever come to seeing a tornado was June 4. 2008. The setup was actually similar to tomorrow but in reversed order--there was a derecho early in the afternoon and then some discrete cells in the evening. Actually, the closest my house has ever been to a tornado was the Ivan outbreak, but I was at school. June 4 2008 had a overnight-before event too and we cleared out by dawn. The derecho came across the WV/VA line around 1pm, with more rounds, as you said, in the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 My guess is SPC sticks with enhanced later tonight on the new day 1 outlook. I'm going to guess 2% tor general with a pocket of 5% somewhere. 30% wind and 15% hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 My guess is SPC sticks with enhanced later tonight on the new day 1 outlook. I'm going to guess 2% tor general with a pocket of 5% somewhere. 30% wind and 15% hail. Agreed. We always need things to line up perfectly and hedge our bets low so we don't get dissapointed, but I think we do well tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 Agreed. We always need things to line up perfectly and hedge our bets low so we don't get dissapointed, but I think we do well tomorrow. My thoughts are mostly that the upper end from SPC on this one is going to be a high end ENH. I do not see a moderate coming for tomorrow unless more substantial backing of the winds can line up with really good instability. I still have a very big inclination to "meh" on this event but I'm keeping my mind open for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 My guess is SPC sticks with enhanced later tonight on the new day 1 outlook. I'm going to guess 2% tor general with a pocket of 5% somewhere. 30% wind and 15% hail. I also agree. If we do well with clearing, I think they might go 30% hatched wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 I also agree. If we do well with clearing, I think they might go 30% hatched wind That's wouldn't by surprise me with their early afternoon update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 Tornado Warning from CTP intrigues me... Bedford and Somerset counties... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 Tornado Warning from CTP intrigues me... Bedford and Somerset counties... The SVR warned storm in Orange County VA north of Gordonsville has a nice tight couplet now, albeit from KLWX from 57 miles away. (Hail Core) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 End of 23z HRRR run (10:00am tomorrow) looks prime for severe. Lower 80s with Dew Points in the Lower 70s. PWAT's 2.0-2.1, with Mostly Cloudy conditions. CAPE 1500-2000. I would say that's decent. Way warmer then any other model for that time though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 I'm skeptical we see more than a strong line w an associated shelf. Maybe a few discrete in central va. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Where is everyone? Dead in here for the first active weather we've had in a while and it's a weekend!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Where is everyone? Dead in here for the first active weather we've had in a while and it's a weekend!! Not much else we can really say at this point...everything boils down to how everything evolves in the morning. Still questions about how quickly the atmosphere recovers, where the warm front stalls and how much winds remain backed and where. The 4km NAM though has seemed to back off a bit on the degree of discrete activity and has any discrete activity quickly converge into a more QLCS like complex with perhaps some embedded mesos. Eastern PA could causally be a really nice area b/c they stand a decent chance to get into any clearing and also be located close enough to the warm front to where winds can remain backed. The 21z SPC SREF does actually increase the likelihood of 0-1km helicity >150 m2s2 as the afternoon progresses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 I'm a fan of the latest NAM 4K run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 I AM LOVIN THIS PATTERN!!!!! The grass is growin big time and I can barely keep up with it! This afternoon i got my latest high grass mowing fix in! My neighbor needs her backyard mowed again and her grass is already 7 inches tall and thick as hell! Now we get even MORE rain! I wish all this rain would go stationary for a week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 I would take this weather over 50s and drizzle 9 times out of 10. Looks like that band of showers could reach here around 1ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 HRRR has the area still socked in with **** at the end of its run at 1pm. hopefully that changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Enhanced remains for Day 1, 2 Tor, 5 Hail, 30 Wind...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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